South Korea remains deeply divided over the prospect of directly supplying arms to Ukraine, even as international calls intensify following reports of North Korean troops bolstering Russia’s war efforts. Recent surveys reveal significant public opposition to such military aid, placing President Yoon Suk Yeol in a precarious position as he navigates a delicate balance between domestic sentiment, geopolitical pressures, and national security concerns.
Ukraine has continued to seek military aid from South Korea, particularly advanced weaponry such as air defense systems and artillery, as its fight against Russia enters another grueling year. On Wednesday, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov led a delegation to meet President Yoon in Seoul, highlighting Kyiv’s urgent needs. According to the South Korean presidential office, discussions focused on monitoring North Korea’s alleged dispatch of troops to Russia and addressing concerns over the exchange of military technology between Moscow and Pyongyang.
“The visit is part of ongoing diplomatic efforts to strengthen collaboration against shared security threats,” Yoon’s office stated. While Seoul pledged to share intelligence and deepen cooperation, it stopped short of committing to weapon supplies, underscoring the contentious nature of such a decision.
Despite Seoul’s measured stance, a small protest outside the presidential office on Wednesday captured the prevailing public mood. Banners bearing slogans such as “No to the South Korean government planning arms supply to Ukraine” highlighted the deep-seated resistance among ordinary citizens. This sentiment aligns with recent polls: a Gallup Korea survey conducted in October found that 82% of South Koreans oppose sending military aid to Ukraine, even as most respondents view North Korea’s military ties with Russia as a direct threat.
Experts attribute this resistance to a combination of factors, including limited public engagement with the Ukraine conflict and concerns over potential retaliation from Russia. “South Koreans are more attuned to immediate regional issues, such as the North Korean threat, than to the complexities of a distant war,” said Yang Uk, an analyst at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies.
The domestic political landscape further complicates Yoon’s position. The opposition Democratic Party (DP), which holds a parliamentary majority, has criticized the government for not unequivocally rejecting arms supplies to Ukraine. The DP has demanded parliamentary approval for any such decisions, though constitutional experts suggest Yoon could bypass the legislature if deemed necessary.
South Korea has long walked a tightrope in its foreign policy, balancing its alliance with the United States against the need to maintain stable ties with neighboring powers like Russia and China. Moscow has already issued strong warnings against South Korea’s potential arms support for Ukraine. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko recently told TASS news agency that such a move would “completely destroy” relations between Moscow and Seoul.
In response, South Korean officials have pointed to Russia’s own provocations, notably its growing military collaboration with North Korea. “Russia should first ask itself what it provides to North Korea in exchange for Pyongyang’s dispatch of troops,” a senior foreign ministry official said during a background briefing. The official stressed that Seoul’s actions would be determined by Moscow and Pyongyang’s behavior in the coming months.
Unlike neighboring Japan, which has similarly refrained from supplying lethal aid to Ukraine, South Korea is a major player in the global arms market. The country ranks among the top weapons exporters and has inked lucrative defense contracts with Ukraine’s neighbors, such as Poland. While Seoul has provided non-lethal aid to Ukraine, including demining equipment and body armor, the leap to supplying weapons could have far-reaching repercussions.
“South Korea’s position as an arms supplier complicates the optics of refusing lethal aid to Ukraine,” said a Western diplomat familiar with the discussions. “But the domestic resistance and geopolitical risks are significant barriers.”
Adding to the complexity are recent reports suggesting that North Korea has dispatched thousands of troops to assist Russia, marking a new escalation in the conflict. These reports have intensified calls from the U.S. and European allies for Seoul to step up its support for Kyiv, but Yoon’s administration has maintained a cautious stance.
The uncertainty surrounding U.S. foreign policy, particularly after Donald Trump’s victory in this month’s presidential election, has further muddied the waters. Trump’s isolationist stance during his previous term raised questions about Washington’s long-term commitment to supporting Ukraine, and South Korean officials are reportedly weighing how shifts in U.S. policy could impact their decisions.
“South Korea’s alliance with the U.S. is a cornerstone of its security strategy, but a perceived pivot in American policy could affect Seoul’s calculations,” said Kim Hyun-woo, a former South Korean diplomat. “Yoon has to tread carefully, especially with his already low approval ratings at home.”
President Yoon’s approval ratings have plummeted to record lows amid a series of domestic scandals and governance issues. This weak political standing has eroded his mandate on foreign policy, analysts say, leaving him vulnerable to both public criticism and opposition from the Democratic Party.
“Yoon’s administration faces an uphill battle in justifying any direct military support for Ukraine,” said Yang Uk of the Asan Institute. “The public is likely to focus on the potential downsides, such as Russian retaliation or escalation of regional tensions.”
As Ukraine prepares to submit a detailed request for arms, including air defense systems, the Yoon administration must weigh competing priorities. On one hand, there is growing pressure from Western allies and evidence of deepening North Korea-Russia ties; on the other, there is the risk of alienating domestic constituents and worsening relations with Moscow.
For now, Seoul appears to be adopting a wait-and-see approach, linking any decision to the actions of Russia and North Korea. But as the war in Ukraine drags on and international appeals grow louder, South Korea’s role in the conflict may come under increasing scrutiny.
