Mounting fears of a return to civil war grip South Sudan as political tensions between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar escalate. Violent clashes, high-level arrests, and an alarming increase in militia activity threaten to unravel the country’s fragile 2018 peace agreement, which has struggled to hold the country together since its signing.
Observers warn that deep-seated mistrust between the two leaders is at the heart of the crisis. Kiir’s recent political maneuvering—including a Cabinet reshuffle that removed key opposition figures—has been seen as an aggressive move in an already tense situation. Meanwhile, Machar’s allies are growing increasingly wary, accusing the government of provoking violence.
South Sudan, which gained independence in 2011, descended into a brutal civil war in 2013. The conflict, largely fought along ethnic lines, left hundreds of thousands dead and millions displaced. Though a 2018 peace agreement brought relative calm, it failed to resolve core political and military divisions.
Under the deal, Kiir’s Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) and Machar’s Sudan People’s Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM/IO) agreed to form a unity government. However, crucial provisions—such as integrating rival forces into a national army and preparing for democratic elections—remain unfulfilled.
The latest unrest threatens to derail these fragile gains. Experts caution that unless immediate steps are taken to de-escalate tensions, South Sudan could slip back into large-scale conflict.
“The growing mistrust between Kiir and Machar is pushing the country toward renewed war,” said Daniel Akech, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group. “Neither side seems willing to fully commit to the peace process.”
The most recent flare-up began on March 4 when a Nuer militia linked to Machar seized an army base in Nasir, a strategic town near the South Sudan-Ethiopia border. The White Army, a powerful Nuer militia, later took full control of the area after intense clashes with government forces.
Edmund Yakani, executive director of the Community Empowerment for Progress Organization (CEPO), says the violence was sparked by disagreements over the deployment of government troops.
“The White Army resisted the deployment of new South Sudan People’s Defense Forces (SSPDF) apart from the unified forces,” Yakani explained. “It seems the SPLM/IO is supporting the White Army because, from 2013 to 2018, they fought together.”
The situation escalated further when a UN helicopter, attempting to evacuate troops from Nasir, was attacked, leaving at least 27 people dead. Among the casualties was a UN peacekeeper and a senior SSPDF general.
“This is a dangerous escalation,” said Yakani. “What we are seeing is a proxy war between Kiir and Machar playing out on the ground.”
While violence erupts in South Sudan’s rural areas, tensions are also boiling over in the capital, Juba. Last week, Kiir ordered the arrest of several top SPLM/IO figures, fueling fears that the political standoff could spiral into outright conflict.
“Machar has forces positioned not far from Juba,” Akech warned. “If government forces loyal to Kiir attack these areas, the conflict could spread to the capital, leading to a dangerous escalation.”
The arrests have heightened fears of retaliation, with some opposition officials warning that detaining senior SPLM/IO officers for too long—or making additional arrests—could trigger a wider confrontation.
“The government is playing with fire,” said an opposition official, speaking on condition of anonymity. “If these arrests continue, it will not end well.”
The deteriorating situation has drawn concern from regional and international actors. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), a regional bloc that helped broker the 2018 peace deal, has called for an emergency summit on Wednesday to mediate between Kiir and Machar.
Meanwhile, the U.S. government has taken precautionary measures, issuing an evacuation order for non-emergency personnel due to heightened security risks.
“The widespread availability of weapons among civilians and ongoing political instability pose a serious threat,” the U.S. Embassy in Juba warned.
The United Nations Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan has also voiced alarm, warning that the recent violence threatens to undo years of progress.
“South Sudan should be moving forward—implementing the provisions of the peace agreement, strengthening institutions, and building a foundation for democracy,” said Yasmin Sooka, chair of the commission. “Instead, we are witnessing an alarming regression.”
Analysts say the fundamental issue remains the lack of trust between Kiir and Machar. Despite forming a unity government in 2020, the two leaders have frequently clashed over the implementation of key reforms.
Yakani points out that the ceasefire and unification of forces were crucial elements of the peace deal, yet both remain incomplete. “The erosion of trust means the transitional period could be extended yet again, delaying long-promised elections.”
The international community has repeatedly urged both sides to prioritize peace, but with tensions at an all-time high, South Sudan appears dangerously close to repeating its violent past.
“The country is at a crossroads,” said Akech. “If Kiir and Machar fail to de-escalate tensions and recommit to the peace deal, we could see another devastating civil war.”
For now, all eyes are on the upcoming IGAD summit, where regional leaders will attempt to defuse the crisis. Whether South Sudan’s leadership will seize this opportunity for dialogue—or let the country slip back into chaos—remains to be seen.
South Sudan’s fragile peace is hanging by a thread. Political infighting, armed clashes, and high-profile arrests have created a volatile situation that could spiral out of control at any moment. The stakes are high—not just for the country’s leadership, but for millions of South Sudanese civilians who have already endured years of suffering.
