As strategic competition between China and India intensifies, Sri Lanka finds itself at the center of a new geopolitical challenge. The focus is on the region’s valuable cobalt reserves, adding complexity to the already tense dynamics in the Indian Ocean.
A fresh dimension of Sino–Indian competition emerged in January 2024 when India submitted an application to the Jamaica-based International Seabed Authority (ISA) seeking permission to explore the cobalt-rich Afanasy Nikitin Seamount. However, the ISA decided to put India’s application on hold, as the contested area falls within Sri Lanka’s continental shelf, raising serious geopolitical questions about sovereignty, regional influence, and resource control.
Indian Ocean and Strategic Competition
India has long regarded the Indian Ocean as its “backyard,” critical to its security and economic interests. However, China’s increasing presence in the region, driven by investments in strategic ports and underwater surveys, has heightened security concerns for New Delhi. For smaller nations like Sri Lanka, this growing Sino-Indian rivalry has significant implications, often turning them into proxies or battlegrounds for influence.
Since 2009, China has amplified its role in the Indian Ocean through various initiatives. This includes investing in strategically located ports, deploying submarines for anti-piracy operations, and sending survey and hydrographic vessels to map the region’s underwater topography. The Chinese survey ship, Xiang Yang Hong 03, has regularly surveyed the deep waters of the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea, and the waters west of Indonesia since 2019. Furthermore, China has deployed underwater drones to collect data on aquatic environments, underscoring its interest in the Indian Ocean’s resources and environmental conditions.
These activities align with Beijing’s broader aim of securing critical minerals, such as cobalt, lithium, and manganese, which are essential for industries like renewable energy, electric vehicles, and electronics. Currently, China controls 70 percent of the world’s cobalt and 60 percent of its lithium and manganese, giving it a significant upper hand in the global critical minerals market.
India views China’s activities in the Indian Ocean with increasing suspicion. While its interest in the region’s mineral wealth, particularly cobalt-rich areas, stems from national economic goals, New Delhi perceives Beijing’s presence as part of a larger strategy to dominate the critical minerals market. Cobalt is particularly vital for India, as it fuels industries central to its economic ambitions, such as battery production, electric vehicles, and clean energy technologies. Securing access to such minerals is essential for India to meet its target of achieving net-zero emissions by 2070.
India’s Application to the ISA and the Afanasy Nikitin Seamount Dispute
In January 2024, India submitted an application to the ISA to explore the Afanasy Nikitin Seamount, a cobalt-rich area located in the Central Indian Ocean. The seamount lies 650 miles from Sri Lanka, and if Colombo’s claims to extend its continental shelf are successful, the area would fall within Sri Lankan maritime territory. This places Sri Lanka in a crucial position in the ongoing strategic rivalry between India and China.
India’s application for an exploration license was immediately met with resistance from Sri Lanka. Colombo urged the ISA to refrain from processing India’s request until the United Nations Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS) makes a decision regarding Sri Lanka’s own claim to extend its continental shelf. This dispute highlights the complex maritime tensions in the region, which are exacerbated by competing national interests and the broader geopolitical rivalry between China and India.
Sri Lanka’s efforts to extend its continental shelf date back to 2009 when it submitted a formal request to the CLCS under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The request seeks to expand its maritime boundaries beyond the 200-nautical mile limit. While India initially did not oppose this request, it withdrew its support in 2022, citing concerns that Sri Lanka’s claims would prejudice India’s own rights over portions of the continental shelf. This shift coincided with India’s growing concerns over Chinese activities in the region, including research ship operations near Sri Lankan waters.
Sino-Indian Rivalry in the Indian Ocean
India’s strategic interest in Sri Lanka has been on the rise in recent years. New Delhi has ramped up its diplomatic efforts to gain influence over Sri Lanka’s maritime affairs, with the aim of countering China’s increasing involvement in the region. In March 2022, the two countries signed a series of agreements to enhance maritime security. These included a $6 million grant from India to establish a Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre (MRCC) in Sri Lanka, which builds on existing collaborative measures like joint military exercises, patrols, and capacity-building programs.
India’s role in assisting Sri Lanka during times of crisis has also strengthened bilateral ties. For example, during Cyclone Ockhi in 2017, India’s Coast Guard and Navy played a critical role in rescuing Sri Lankan fishermen stranded at sea. In 2021, Indian authorities provided vital support during the X-Press Pearl disaster, which involved a ship carrying hazardous chemicals catching fire off the coast of Sri Lanka.
However, not all issues between the two neighbors are resolved. A longstanding dispute over fishing rights in the Palk Bay remains a point of tension. Indian fishermen have been accused of encroaching into Sri Lankan waters, causing friction between the two nations. This issue, while not directly related to the cobalt reserves, underscores the complex nature of maritime disputes in the region.
China’s Expanding Influence and Research Operations
China’s presence in the Indian Ocean, meanwhile, is part of a broader strategy to expand its influence in the region, including securing critical resources. Chinese research vessels, such as Xiang Yang Hong 03, regularly traverse Indian Ocean waters, conducting surveys and deploying underwater drones to study the ocean’s environment. These research activities have raised alarms in New Delhi, with Indian officials interpreting them as an effort to map out and potentially exploit mineral resources in the region.
In 2023, India successfully pressured Sri Lanka to impose a moratorium on foreign research vessels, particularly targeting Chinese ships. This moratorium, which
came into effect in January 2024, was intended to curb Chinese influence in Sri Lankan waters. However, the moratorium’s implementation sparked internal debate within Sri Lanka, with some officials advocating for more flexibility. As a neutral and non-aligned country, Sri Lanka’s foreign policy has traditionally been to maintain a balanced relationship with major powers, including both India and China. In light of these principles, Sri Lanka’s Foreign Minister recently hinted at the possibility of lifting the moratorium, stressing that Sri Lanka must apply consistent rules to all nations, whether it be China, India, or other countries.
The situation regarding the Afanasy Nikitin Seamount is particularly sensitive, as it directly affects Sri Lanka’s maritime claims. Should Colombo’s request for an extended continental shelf succeed, the seamount will fall within Sri Lanka’s jurisdiction. This prospect opens the door to a potential geopolitical struggle between India and China, both of whom have strategic and economic interests in the region. For Sri Lanka, the challenge lies in managing these competing interests without alienating either of the two powers.
Sri Lanka’s strategic location at the heart of the Indian Ocean makes it a pivotal player in the evolving rivalry between China and India. The island nation has long sought to remain neutral in its foreign policy, adopting a non-aligned stance during the Cold War and continuing this approach in the face of today’s global geopolitical shifts. However, the increasing strategic competition between China and India threatens to disrupt Sri Lanka’s carefully balanced diplomacy.
Economically, Sri Lanka is highly dependent on both China and India. India has been a longstanding partner in terms of trade, investment, and regional cooperation. It is also a major source of financial aid, as evidenced by New Delhi’s assistance to Colombo during its economic crises. On the other hand, China has provided significant loans and investments to Sri Lanka as part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Chinese-funded projects, such as the Hambantota Port, have raised concerns about debt dependency, but they also provide critical infrastructure development for Sri Lanka.
This economic dependence limits Sri Lanka’s ability to take firm stances against either nation. Colombo cannot afford to antagonize New Delhi, given India’s proximity and crucial role in regional security. At the same time, it cannot risk alienating Beijing, which has become an indispensable source of infrastructure financing. This balancing act will become even more challenging as the dispute over the Afanasy Nikitin Seamount unfolds.
Sri Lanka’s Approach to Maritime Disputes and National Security
The Afanasy Nikitin Seamount dispute highlights the broader challenges Sri Lanka faces in managing its maritime boundaries and protecting its territorial integrity. Colombo’s attempts to extend its continental shelf are part of a broader effort to secure its maritime resources and assert its sovereignty. However, the geopolitical complexities of the Indian Ocean region mean that such moves are often met with resistance from larger powers like India.
Sri Lanka’s recent steps to enhance its maritime security, particularly through cooperation with India, reflect an understanding of the importance of securing its waters. The MRCC, for instance, is a crucial element in ensuring that Sri Lanka can effectively monitor and respond to maritime incidents. Moreover, joint naval exercises and coordinated patrols with India serve as a deterrent to unauthorized incursions into Sri Lankan waters, whether by foreign research vessels or illegal fishing activities.
Yet, while Sri Lanka has made strides in enhancing its maritime security, it faces challenges in maintaining this delicate balance. The 2024 moratorium on foreign research vessels, for example, is a clear attempt to address Indian concerns over Chinese activities in the region. However, such actions risk undermining Sri Lanka’s claim to neutrality, particularly if Colombo is seen as capitulating to Indian pressure.
Sri Lanka’s Geopolitical Strategy
As the rivalry between China and India continues to intensify, Sri Lanka will need to carefully navigate the treacherous waters of regional geopolitics. The dispute over the Afanasy Nikitin Seamount is just one example of how the island nation’s strategic location can become a focal point for competition between larger powers. In this context, Sri Lanka’s ability to maintain its non-aligned stance and protect its national interests will be severely tested.
To manage these challenges, Sri Lanka may need to strengthen its diplomatic efforts, both within the region and on the international stage. Engaging with multilateral institutions, such as the ISA and the United Nations, will be crucial in ensuring that Sri Lanka’s maritime claims are respected and that disputes are resolved through peaceful means. At the same time, Colombo must continue to build partnerships with both India and China, while avoiding becoming overly dependent on either.
Ultimately, Sri Lanka’s future in the Indian Ocean will depend on its ability to balance its relationships with the region’s two dominant powers, all while asserting its sovereignty and protecting its valuable maritime resources. As the battle for control over critical minerals like cobalt intensifies, Sri Lanka’s role as a strategic player in the region will only grow in importance. Whether it can successfully navigate these challenges remains to be seen, but the stakes for the island nation—and the broader Indian Ocean region—could not be higher.
The dispute over the Afanasy Nikitin Seamount encapsulates the broader geopolitical dynamics at play in the Indian Ocean. For Sri Lanka, the challenge is not just about securing its maritime boundaries or gaining access to valuable cobalt reserves. It is also about maintaining its independence and sovereignty in the face of growing external pressures.
As India and China continue to vie for influence in the region, Sri Lanka must carefully balance its relationships with both powers. Failure to do so could risk embroiling the small island nation in a larger geopolitical struggle that it cannot afford. Yet, with strategic diplomacy, enhanced maritime security, and a commitment to neutrality, Sri Lanka can hope to navigate these complex waters and emerge as a key player in the Indian Ocean’s evolving geopolitical landscape.
