Anura Kumara Dissanayake, a Marxist-leaning politician, has surged ahead in the early results of Sri Lanka’s presidential election, positioning himself as the frontrunner to lead the country at a critical juncture in its post-crisis recovery. According to data released by Sri Lanka’s Election Commission on Sunday, Dissanayake secured approximately 53 percent of the first million votes counted, leaving his opponents, opposition leader Sajith Premadasa and incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe, trailing with 22 percent and 15 percent, respectively.
Dissanayake’s commanding early lead signals a potential political shift in Sri Lanka, a nation still grappling with the aftereffects of a devastating economic crisis that crippled its financial stability in 2022. As the candidate for the National People’s Power (NPP) alliance, which includes his Marxist-leaning Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) party, Dissanayake’s rise reflects the growing appeal of populist policies and anti-corruption rhetoric among the electorate.
A Nation at a Crossroads
The election comes at a time when Sri Lanka is seeking to stabilize its fragile economy, which has been teetering on the brink of collapse since last year’s foreign exchange shortage made it impossible for the island nation to import essential goods such as fuel, medicine, and food. Although the country has made some progress thanks to a $2.9 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), many Sri Lankans continue to struggle under the weight of high living costs and widespread poverty. With inflation reduced from a crisis peak of 70 percent to just 0.5 percent last month, and the economy poised for modest growth in 2024, the election has taken on critical importance.
Voter turnout for the election was high, with about 75 percent of Sri Lanka’s 17 million eligible voters casting their ballots on Saturday. For many, this was an opportunity to express their frustrations with the status quo and their hopes for a better future under new leadership.
Anura Kumara Dissanayake
Dissanayake, 55, has built his campaign around promises of change, leveraging the populist sentiment that has swept across Sri Lanka in the aftermath of the 2022 economic collapse. He has portrayed himself as the champion of the working class and the poor, focusing his campaign on anti-corruption measures, tax reform, and pro-poor policies. His political base is deeply rooted in the JVP’s ideology of state intervention in the economy and its historical resistance to neoliberal policies.
Although his party, the JVP, holds just three seats in Parliament, Dissanayake has risen to prominence through his fiery speeches and the NPP’s ability to connect with a broad swath of the electorate, particularly those disillusioned by the traditional political parties. His promises to dissolve Parliament within 45 days of assuming power and seek a fresh mandate have resonated with voters seeking a break from the entrenched political establishment.
Dissanayake’s rhetoric has focused on a national reset, promising a government that will prioritize the needs of ordinary Sri Lankans over international creditors. He has been particularly critical of the economic policies pursued by the Wickremesinghe administration, which has relied heavily on IMF-backed austerity measures to stabilize the economy. While these measures have restored a semblance of economic stability, they have also exacerbated poverty and inequality, making the daily lives of many Sri Lankans more difficult.
Opposition and Government Reactions
In the face of Dissanayake’s early lead, opposition leader Sajith Premadasa of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) has called for patience and faith in the electoral process. Despite trailing by a considerable margin, Premadasa has maintained his commitment to offering a pragmatic alternative to both the NPP and the Wickremesinghe administration. His platform, which focused on modernizing the economy while maintaining social welfare programs, appears to have garnered significant support, though not enough to outpace Dissanayake’s momentum in the early vote count.
President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who came to power in 2022 after the resignation of former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa amid mass protests, has been conspicuously quiet in the wake of the early results. Despite steering Sri Lanka through one of its most tumultuous periods, Wickremesinghe has struggled to shake off the public perception that his government has been too aligned with international institutions like the IMF and has failed to adequately address the hardships faced by ordinary Sri Lankans.
Foreign Minister Ali Sabry, a close ally of Wickremesinghe, acknowledged the early results on social media, stating, “Though I heavily campaigned for President Ranil Wickremesinghe, the people of Sri Lanka have made their decision, and I fully respect their mandate for Anura Kumara Dissanayake.” Sabry’s comments reflect a growing sense within the Wickremesinghe administration that a change in leadership may be inevitable.
Challenges Ahead for Sri Lanka
The next president will inherit a country still mired in debt, with millions of citizens struggling to make ends meet. Although the IMF bailout has provided a temporary lifeline, the long-term success of Sri Lanka’s economic recovery hinges on continued reforms, careful management of public finances, and efforts to boost investor confidence.
Dissanayake’s rise has raised concerns among investors and market participants, who fear that his populist policies—particularly his pledge to slash taxes—could derail the country’s fragile recovery. In his manifesto, Dissanayake outlined plans to reduce the tax burden on the middle and lower classes, a move that would likely increase the fiscal deficit and strain the government’s ability to meet its debt repayment obligations. However, in a bid to calm investor anxieties, Dissanayake has taken a more conciliatory tone in recent campaign speeches, promising that any changes to fiscal policy will be made in consultation with the IMF.
Despite these reassurances, many observers remain skeptical of Dissanayake’s ability to balance his pro-poor agenda with the fiscal discipline required under the IMF program. Sri Lanka’s public debt currently stands at around $83 billion, and the country is expected to continue repayments under the IMF agreement until 2027. Any deviation from this path could trigger a loss of confidence among international lenders, potentially leading to another financial crisis.
Beyond the economic challenges, the next president will also have to contend with deep-seated political divisions. Sri Lanka’s political landscape has been fractured since the protests of 2022, with widespread distrust of the traditional political elites. Dissanayake’s success in positioning himself as an outsider may have won him the election, but it could also make it difficult for him to govern effectively. His pledge to dissolve Parliament and call for early general elections could further exacerbate political instability if he fails to secure a majority in the new legislature.
Despite the uncertainty surrounding Sri Lanka’s future, many voters have expressed cautious optimism that a change in leadership could bring about the reforms needed to lift the country out of its current malaise. “We’ve suffered for too long,” said Ruwan, a shopkeeper in Colombo who voted for Dissanayake. “The cost of living is unbearable, and the corruption in the government is worse than ever. We need someone who will fight for the people, not for the politicians.”
This sentiment is echoed by many of Dissanayake’s supporters, who view him as a break from the past and a leader who will prioritize the needs of the poor and the working class. However, even among his supporters, there is an acknowledgment that the road ahead will be difficult. “He has made big promises, but the challenges are also big,” said Sanduni, a teacher in Kandy. “I hope he can deliver, but it won’t be easy.”
As Sri Lanka awaits the final results of the presidential election, the country finds itself at a pivotal moment in its history. Dissanayake’s early lead suggests that the electorate is ready for a change, but it remains to be seen whether his populist platform will be enough to steer the country through its economic challenges. With a debt-laden economy, a restive population, and pressure from international institutions, the next president will have to navigate a complex and perilous political landscape. Regardless of the final outcome, the election marks a turning point for Sri Lanka as it seeks to recover from its worst economic crisis in decades and chart a new course for the future.
