On Saturday, Sri Lanka will head to the polls to elect its next president in what is widely seen as a referendum on the government’s response to the island nation’s unprecedented economic crisis. The vote comes at a time when the country is grappling with the aftermath of a severe financial collapse, exacerbated by unpopular austerity measures imposed under a $2.9 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout.

President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 75, who assumed office during the peak of the crisis in 2022, has urged voters to renew his mandate, claiming that his tough but necessary reforms have stabilized the economy. His presidency, however, has been marked by sweeping tax hikes and austerity measures that, while bringing some fiscal order, have deepened hardship for many Sri Lankans.

Wickremesinghe’s Austerity Measures and the Economic Crisis

Wickremesinghe has been the face of Sri Lanka’s recovery efforts since the previous administration collapsed amidst widespread protests. The former Prime Minister took the reins after his predecessor, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, fled the country following a wave of public fury that saw protesters storming his presidential palace.

Wickremesinghe has argued that his measures, including tax hikes and cuts to public spending, were the only viable options to bring Sri Lanka back from the brink of financial ruin. “We must continue with reforms to end bankruptcy,” he stated during his final rally in Colombo earlier this week. “We must build a new economy.”

His administration negotiated the IMF bailout to address the acute shortages of food, fuel, and medicine that paralyzed the country in 2022, a crisis largely precipitated by the government defaulting on its $46 billion foreign debt. The IMF’s stringent conditions, however, have drawn criticism from many quarters of Sri Lankan society, as the burden of economic recovery has fallen heavily on the shoulders of ordinary citizens.

Despite some signs of stabilization—most notably the reduction of inflation from a staggering 70% during the crisis peak to under 5% today—Sri Lanka’s economy remains fragile. Experts warn that the road to recovery is still fraught with challenges. Payments on the country’s defaulted debt have yet to resume, and poverty has surged.

While Wickremesinghe has restored a degree of order to the country, public anger toward his policies remains palpable. For many Sri Lankans, the austerity measures have worsened living conditions, making day-to-day survival a struggle.

Official statistics paint a stark picture: the country’s poverty rate doubled between 2021 and 2022, with an additional 2.5 million people falling below the poverty line. The soaring cost of living has driven professionals and skilled workers to seek employment abroad, further straining the domestic labor market.

Political analysts suggest that Saturday’s vote will serve as a referendum on Wickremesinghe’s handling of the crisis. “The election will largely be a referendum on how Wickremesinghe’s government has handled the economic crisis and the ensuing modest recovery,” stated a recent report by the International Crisis Group. The report emphasized the widespread hardship endured by citizens as austerity policies tightened their grip on the country.

The Opposition: Dissanayaka’s Rising Popularity and the Marxist Revival

Among the most formidable challengers to Wickremesinghe is Anura Kumara Dissanayaka, the leader of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), a once-marginal Marxist party with a violent past. Though the JVP led two failed armed uprisings in the 1970s and 1980s, resulting in the deaths of over 80,000 people, the economic crisis has reinvigorated the party’s platform.

Dissanayaka, 55, has positioned himself as the champion of the people, vowing to dismantle what he describes as Sri Lanka’s “corrupt political culture.” His campaign has resonated with voters disillusioned by decades of economic mismanagement and scandal within the ruling elite.

“September 21st (voting day) will be the beginning of a long journey to completely change the system of governance in Sri Lanka,” Dissanayaka declared at his final rally, held in a Colombo suburb adorned with red flags, symbolizing the party’s revolutionary heritage.

Though the JVP secured less than 4% of the vote in the last parliamentary elections, the political climate has shifted dramatically since then. The economic downturn has provided Dissanayaka with a rare opportunity to harness public anger toward the government, and his populist rhetoric has found traction among a broad swath of voters, particularly the young and economically disenfranchised.

Sajith Premadasa: The Pragmatic Challenger

Sajith Premadasa, 57, is another key opposition figure vying for the presidency. The son of a former president assassinated in 1993 during Sri Lanka’s civil war, Premadasa has long been seen as part of the political establishment. Yet he has worked to distance himself from his previous alliances, particularly his former mentor, Wickremesinghe.

Premadasa, who leads the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) party, has campaigned on a platform of transparency and anti-corruption. His manifesto focuses on revising some of the most unpopular aspects of the IMF-backed austerity program. Notably, he has promised to renegotiate the tax code, which he argues unfairly burdens the professional class, driving them to leave the country.

“We will revise the unfair burden-sharing structure of the IMF-supported tax code revision that is forcing professionals to seek employment abroad,” Premadasa stated during his campaign. His pragmatic approach appeals to middle-class voters who feel squeezed by the economic reforms but are wary of the JVP’s radical agenda.

Election Security and Voting Process

With 17.1 million people eligible to vote, Sri Lanka’s election is expected to be one of the most closely watched in recent history. Over 200,000 officials have been deployed to oversee the election, with security bolstered by 63,000 police officers to ensure a peaceful voting process.

Nihal Talduwa, a spokesman for the police, reported that the campaign period had been largely peaceful, with 464 election-related complaints but no significant incidents of violence or intimidation.

The campaign officially ended on Wednesday, marking the start of a two-day “cooling off period” before the vote on Saturday. Political rallies, which have dominated public life for the past 56 days, have given way to quieter discussions among citizens as they prepare to make their decision.

The Stakes of Saturday’s Election

The stakes for Sri Lanka’s election could not be higher. The outcome will determine not only the country’s political leadership but also the direction of its economic recovery.

The IMF’s $2.9 billion bailout, which was seen as the country’s last resort during the height of the crisis, has come with harsh conditions, including significant fiscal consolidation. While inflation has fallen, and the economy has stabilized to some extent, the country remains far from a full recovery. Foreign debt repayments are yet to begin, and economic vulnerabilities persist.

Julie Kozack, the IMF’s Director of Communications, noted last week that while Sri Lanka has made progress, the country is “not out of the woods yet.” She stressed the importance of safeguarding the gains made thus far and maintaining the reform trajectory to prevent further deterioration.

Voters face a stark choice: they can endorse Wickremesinghe’s continuation of the IMF-backed austerity, or they can place their faith in one of the opposition candidates promising change, be it through radical reform or pragmatic adjustments.

As Sri Lanka prepares to vote, the country remains deeply divided over its future. Wickremesinghe’s supporters argue that his tough measures have laid the foundation for long-term stability, while his opponents decry the immediate hardships imposed on the population. Dissanayaka and Premadasa both represent distinct alternatives, with Dissanayaka promising a radical overhaul of the system, and Premadasa offering a more moderate path of reform.

The results of Saturday’s election are expected by Sunday, and the outcome will have profound implications for Sri Lanka’s future. Regardless of who wins, the challenges facing the country are immense, and the next president will need to navigate an incredibly delicate economic and political landscape to restore prosperity and stability to the island nation.