As the United States inches closer to next week’s pivotal presidential election, a recent poll from George Mason University and The Washington Post has revealed widespread anxiety among swing state voters over the potential consequences if former President Donald Trump refuses to concede in the event of defeat. The survey found a significant majority of respondents worried about possible violence from Trump supporters, further intensifying the high-stakes atmosphere around one of the most contentious elections in recent history.
Polling over 5,000 voters across critical battleground states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona—the survey highlighted growing apprehensions about Trump’s behavior and rhetoric, which some fear could undermine democratic processes. Only a minority of voters expressed similar concerns about Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, should she lose the election. The findings underscore a stark contrast between the two candidates in how they are perceived to handle the possibility of electoral defeat and their stance on democratic norms.
With Trump frequently questioning the validity of the electoral process and casting doubt on the legitimacy of his potential defeat, 66% of respondents indicated that they believe Trump will likely reject the outcome if he loses to Harris. Trump has continued to amplify claims of widespread voter fraud without evidence and hinted that his defeat would signify a “rigged” system, reinforcing fears that he could incite his supporters to contest the results.
These concerns echo Trump’s reaction to his 2020 loss to Joe Biden, which culminated in his attempts to halt the certification of the election results in Congress and an unprecedented assault on the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021. Since then, Trump has maintained his belief that the election was “stolen,” a position that continues to resonate with his base.
“This result isn’t surprising,” said Mark Rozell, dean of George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government. “Trump’s rhetoric has consistently cast doubt on the democratic process, leaving many Americans uneasy about whether he would respect the decision if he loses.”
Perhaps more troubling, 57% of respondents expressed apprehension that Trump supporters might turn to violence if he is not declared the winner, adding another layer of unease to the upcoming election. This fear aligns with the broader trend of heightened political polarization, which has been fueled by inflammatory rhetoric from Trump and his allies who portray the opposition as an “enemy from within.” Trump’s language has raised concerns that he could be sowing the seeds of unrest among his supporters, potentially leading to civil disobedience or even violence if he falls short on Election Day.
These sentiments are notably absent when voters consider the possibility of a Harris loss. Only 31% feared that Harris supporters might react violently in the event of her defeat, and nearly two-thirds of respondents believed she would graciously accept the election outcome. Harris has consistently emphasized the importance of preserving democratic norms and the peaceful transfer of power, a message in line with the campaign’s positioning of the election as a defense of democracy itself.
Amid fears of a contested election, one paradoxical survey result has generated significant discussion: despite their reservations about Trump’s willingness to accept defeat, 43% of swing state voters indicated that they trust him more than Harris (who garnered 40%) to safeguard democratic values. This outcome has confounded many analysts, given Trump’s role in challenging the 2020 election results and his incendiary rhetoric on democratic institutions.
“Consider what happened on January 6,” Rozell remarked. “Trump not only questioned the outcome of a presidential election, but he also refused to participate in the inauguration of the incoming president. And yet, a substantial portion of voters still view him as more capable of defending democracy. It’s a paradox that points to the depth of polarization in American society.”
Political observers attribute this result to the high level of loyalty Trump commands among his supporters, many of whom view his anti-establishment stance and criticisms of the political system as proof of his commitment to the American people. Conversely, Harris has faced repeated attacks from conservative groups portraying her as a “radical” who threatens traditional American values, likely influencing some voters’ perceptions of her role in a democratic government.
As the survey highlights Trump’s polarizing influence, it also sheds light on voter concerns about authoritarianism, with 45% of swing state voters saying they believe Trump would attempt to govern in an authoritarian manner if given the opportunity. In contrast, only 19% voiced similar concerns about Harris. The prospect of authoritarian rule has garnered increased attention, particularly in light of Trump’s statements about using “dictatorial” powers to achieve policy goals, which he claims he would invoke on “day one” of a second term.
“Trump’s comments about using dictatorial power and his threats against those investigating him or opposing his policies raise legitimate questions about the durability of American democratic institutions,” said constitutional scholar Jason Kowalski. “These statements have understandably spurred concerns that a re-elected Trump might expand executive authority in unprecedented ways, challenging the rule of law.”
In response to these fears, 81% of respondents—including 73% of Harris supporters—expressed optimism that U.S. institutions such as Congress or the Supreme Court would serve as effective checks on any authoritarian moves by a sitting president. The current conservative majority on the Supreme Court, largely appointed by Trump, has bolstered the judicial branch’s role in upholding executive limits, although rulings in recent cases have sparked concerns about the Court’s long-term impartiality on issues impacting democracy.
Throughout the campaign, Harris has emphasized that the upcoming election is not merely a contest between political rivals but a referendum on American democracy. Her campaign has cast Trump as a “threat” to the nation’s democratic values—a view echoed by some high-profile figures, including Trump’s former White House chief of staff, John Kelly, who recently described Trump as a “fascist.” Harris has strategically adopted this characterization, arguing that the country’s future as a democracy hinges on the rejection of Trump’s divisive rhetoric and the restoration of trust in democratic norms.
Political analysts note that Harris’s strategy has drawn on the escalating tensions around Trump’s approach to governance, including his vows to seek retribution against political adversaries. Trump recently called for the expulsion of special prosecutor Jack Smith, who is investigating Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election, asserting that Smith’s investigation represents a “deep state” effort to undermine him. Harris has seized on such comments, framing her candidacy as a counterpoint to Trump’s confrontational style and pledging to restore the integrity of democratic institutions.
The poll’s insights into swing state voters underscore the importance of these battlegrounds in determining the outcome of the election and setting the tone for the country’s democratic trajectory. With Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona accounting for crucial electoral votes, voter sentiment in these states may ultimately influence the national outcome. In recent election cycles, these states have alternated between Republican and Democratic victories, reflecting a broad cross-section of the electorate and intensifying the stakes for both campaigns.
As the election nears, both campaigns are ramping up their efforts to reach undecided voters in these regions. Harris’s strategy hinges on convincing voters that democracy is in peril, while Trump continues to energize his base by portraying himself as a populist hero opposing the so-called “deep state” and vowing to rectify what he considers institutional corruption. With voters in these states acutely aware of the gravity of their choice, experts predict a high turnout and a potentially drawn-out vote count, as absentee and mail-in ballots may require additional time to process.
With less than a week remaining until the election, the survey’s findings point to an uncertain and potentially tumultuous path ahead. If Trump were to lose, a significant portion of the population appears to expect some form of resistance, whether through legal channels or demonstrations, and the widespread fear of violence looms as a chilling reminder of January 6. Political leaders from both parties have urged for calm and respect for democratic outcomes, although observers caution that Trump’s refusal to commit to accepting the results could inflame tensions further.
In the meantime, law enforcement agencies and election officials in key states are preparing for various contingencies, including possible civil unrest. With historical precedents for both peaceful and contested transitions, experts are cautiously optimistic that the country’s institutions will hold steady. However, the fragility of these norms in the current climate serves as a warning about the resilience of democracy in times of extraordinary political polarization.
As voters head to the polls, many will be weighing not only their choice of candidate but also their hopes and fears for the nation’s future. The outcome may determine the direction of the U.S. for years to come, with the stakes transcending traditional political rivalries and underscoring the foundational principles of democratic governance.
