A recent survey conducted by Taiwan’s premier military think tank, the Institute for National Defence and Security Research (INDSR), reveals a complex and evolving sentiment among the Taiwanese public regarding the possibility of a Chinese invasion. While the majority of respondents believe that such a scenario is unlikely in the next five years, there remains widespread concern about the broader implications of China’s ambitions for the democratic island. The survey, released on Wednesday, provides a detailed snapshot of public opinion against the backdrop of growing regional tensions and increased Chinese military activities.
Over the past five years, China has escalated its military presence and actions around Taiwan. This includes regular incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ), large-scale military exercises simulating an invasion, and significant naval deployments in the Taiwan Strait. China has consistently maintained that Taiwan is a part of its territory, despite the strong objections of Taipei, which asserts its sovereignty. Beijing has never ruled out the use of force to bring the island under its control, a fact that has raised alarms in the international community, particularly among Taiwan’s allies such as the United States and Japan.
The INDSR survey, which interviewed around 1,200 Taiwanese citizens in September 2024, provides a nuanced perspective on how the public views these developments. According to the poll, 61% of respondents believe that a Chinese invasion in the next five years is “unlikely or very unlikely.” This suggests that despite China’s aggressive posturing, the majority of the Taiwanese population does not anticipate an immediate military conflict with the mainland.
Christina Chen, a researcher at INDSR, interprets the findings as an indication that most Taiwanese people view China’s territorial ambitions as real but do not expect them to manifest in the form of a direct attack on the island. “The data shows that while the public recognizes the seriousness of the threat posed by China, they remain calm and rational regarding the prospect of imminent war,” Chen said during the release of the report. “This is a population that has grown accustomed to living under the shadow of potential conflict but does not panic.”
While the poll suggests that a large portion of Taiwanese citizens dismiss the likelihood of an immediate invasion, concerns about other forms of pressure from Beijing remain significant. Taiwan is continuously exposed to a variety of non-military threats, including disinformation campaigns, cyberattacks, and economic coercion, which are aimed at undermining the island’s democratic institutions and morale.
“Most people see China’s territorial ambitions as a serious threat, even if it doesn’t come in the form of a direct military assault,” Christina Chen continued. “China’s military drills, propaganda campaigns, and persistent economic pressure have been effective in maintaining a constant sense of insecurity, but they have not led to panic or an expectation of imminent conflict.”
Beijing’s use of large-scale military exercises near Taiwan has been widely seen as an intimidation tactic. The frequent presence of Chinese military aircraft and warships near Taiwanese airspace and waters has become a routine feature of the island’s defense strategy. Yet, despite this escalating military activity, the INDSR poll indicates that the Taiwanese population remains largely unmoved by the idea of a near-term invasion.
This contrasts with views from abroad, particularly in the United States. Last year, William Burns, the director of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), warned that Chinese President Xi Jinping had ordered his military to be prepared for an invasion of Taiwan by 2027. This prediction has raised concerns in Washington and other allied capitals about the need to reinforce Taiwan’s defenses.
One of the most notable findings from the INDSR poll is the high level of commitment among Taiwanese citizens to defending their homeland in the event of a Chinese attack. A substantial 67% of respondents said they would be willing to fight back if China launched a military assault on the island. This reflects a strong sense of national identity and resistance to the idea of unification with China under coercion.
However, public confidence in Taiwan’s ability to defend itself is more divided. The poll reveals a near-even split, with approximately half of the respondents expressing confidence in Taiwan’s military capacity to repel an invasion, while the other half remain skeptical. This ambivalence is partly due to the rapidly expanding capabilities of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), which has undergone significant modernization and expansion over the last decade.
Lee Kuan-chen, another researcher at INDSR, commented on the results, suggesting that Taiwan’s military must continue to build its defense capabilities to inspire greater public trust. “Taiwan’s armed forces have made significant progress, but there is still work to be done to reassure the public that they are capable of defending the island against a full-scale invasion,” Lee said. “We need to ensure that people feel confident in our ability to protect Taiwan’s sovereignty.”
The poll also highlighted mixed views regarding the role of the United States in the event of a conflict with China. Historically, the U.S. has maintained a policy of “strategic ambiguity” regarding whether it would intervene militarily if Taiwan were attacked. However, recent statements by U.S. President Joe Biden have muddied the waters, with the president suggesting at times that the U.S. would defend Taiwan, a departure from the long-standing policy.
According to the INDSR survey, 74% of respondents believe that the U.S. government is likely to assist Taiwan “indirectly,” through the provision of weapons, food, and medical supplies. This reflects confidence in Washington’s longstanding commitments to Taiwan under the Taiwan Relations Act, which obligates the U.S. to help Taiwan maintain its self-defense capabilities. However, only 52% of those polled think the U.S. would send its military to directly intervene in a conflict.
Lee Kuan-chen emphasized the importance of managing public expectations regarding U.S. support. “There is a need for greater transparency from the government regarding Taiwan-U.S. security cooperation,” he said. “This will help ensure that people do not have expectations that are either too high or too low about the level of U.S. assistance in the event of a conflict.”
The ambivalence among the Taiwanese public about direct U.S. military involvement reflects broader uncertainties in the global geopolitical landscape. While Taiwan’s defense is of significant interest to the U.S. and its allies, the question of whether Washington would commit troops to defend Taiwan remains a critical and unresolved issue.
As Taiwan prepares for the future, the findings from the INDSR poll provide valuable insights into how the government and military should plan for potential contingencies. Public opinion, as reflected in the survey, suggests that while the population does not expect an immediate invasion, they remain deeply aware of the broader threats posed by China.
To bolster its defense capabilities, Taiwan has increased its military budget, modernized its armed forces, and strengthened ties with international partners such as the U.S. and Japan. In addition to military readiness, the government has placed an emphasis on asymmetric warfare, leveraging Taiwan’s geographic and technological advantages to deter a larger Chinese force.
In light of the poll’s findings, Lee Kuan-chen urged Taiwan’s leaders to maintain a focus on long-term defense preparedness. “The data shows that while the public remains calm about the threat of immediate war, there is an expectation that Taiwan will continue to enhance its defense capabilities,” Lee said. “Building public trust in our military strength will be crucial for maintaining national morale.”
Taiwan stands at a critical juncture, facing an increasingly assertive China that has made no secret of its desire to reunify the island with the mainland. Yet, despite the heightened tensions and military threats, the Taiwanese public remains remarkably composed, with most people dismissing the likelihood of an invasion in the near future. At the same time, there is a strong desire for continued vigilance and defense readiness, both within Taiwan’s military and through international partnerships.
As Taiwan navigates these challenges, the government must balance public expectations, military preparedness, and diplomatic relations to ensure the island’s security and sovereignty. The results of the INDSR poll demonstrate that while the road ahead is fraught with uncertainties, the Taiwanese people are prepared to face the future with a calm resolve and a firm commitment to defending their homeland.
