One year after taking office, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te finds his presidency engulfed in a storm of political turmoil. Elected in January 2024 on a platform promising to defend Taiwan’s democracy against growing Chinese aggression, Lai now faces an intensifying domestic crisis that is stalling reforms, eroding public confidence, and, analysts warn, strengthening Beijing’s hand.
Taiwan, a self-governed island claimed by China, has long been known for its vibrant but combative democratic system. But recent months have seen that energy turn chaotic. Physical brawls in parliament, dueling recall campaigns, and deepening legislative deadlock have come to define Lai’s first year in office. Meanwhile, China continues to ratchet up military and hybrid threats, watching closely as Taiwan’s political system unravels from within.
“The only beneficiary of a divided, fractured Taiwan that is incapable of addressing its own long-term requirements and vulnerabilities is China,” said Ryan Hass, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
Lai, the standard-bearer of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), won the presidency with just 40 percent of the vote—thanks to a split in the opposition—but his party lost its majority in Taiwan’s legislature. That power vacuum opened the door for the opposition Kuomintang (KMT), a party traditionally more conciliatory toward Beijing, to form a de facto alliance with the upstart Taiwan People’s Party (TPP).
Together, the KMT and TPP have blocked DPP-backed bills, slashed government budgets, and stymied Lai’s reform agenda. Their resistance has reached dramatic proportions, including fights on the parliament floor and mass street protests on both sides of the political divide.
With no clear majority and no incentive to compromise, Taiwan’s legislature has become gridlocked.
“There’s no bipartisanship or ability to come together on issues,” said Bonnie Glaser, a Taiwan expert at the German Marshall Fund. “They spend a lot of their time thinking about how to damage the image of their adversaries.”
The rhetoric has turned toxic. KMT lawmakers have labeled Lai a “dictator” who is steering Taiwan toward war with China. The DPP has fired back, calling the KMT a “puppet of Beijing” and accusing it of weakening Taiwan’s democracy from within.
This war of words has spilled into action. The DPP has launched an aggressive recall campaign targeting around 30 KMT legislators in hopes of regaining control of parliament. While the bar for successful recalls is high, if the DPP can flip six seats, it could regain its majority. In retaliation, KMT supporters launched their own recall drive targeting 15 DPP lawmakers, but the campaign has been tainted by scandal. KMT staffers have been accused of forging signatures from deceased individuals—an incident now under investigation.
Some KMT figures have even threatened to initiate a recall against President Lai himself, though such a move is unlikely to succeed.
“It feels like a negative-sum game where all sides are coming out tarnished,” said Hass. “The political system looks more frayed, and that’s a win for Beijing.”
Lai’s approval ratings have steadily dropped. According to an April survey by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation, his approval sits at 45.9 percent—down from nearly 60 percent after his election. His disapproval rating has climbed to 45.7 percent, the highest since he took office.
The drop reflects growing public frustration, particularly over the government’s response to new U.S. tariffs on Taiwanese exports and concerns about energy shortages, low wages, and housing affordability. Critics have also taken issue with the DPP’s aggressive recall tactics, calling them a distraction from governance.
Yet despite domestic woes, Lai has made headway in some key areas. He has raised public awareness about China’s escalating military threat, pushed to increase Taiwan’s defense spending to over 3 percent of GDP, and continued efforts to diversify Taiwan’s international partnerships.
Still, these achievements are overshadowed by deepening political dysfunction. And that dysfunction is being exploited by China.
China, which has long vowed to reunite Taiwan with the mainland—by force if necessary—has ramped up pressure since Lai took office. Military aircraft and warships now encircle the island on a near-daily basis. Several large-scale military drills have simulated blockades and assaults. Cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns have spiked, targeting Taiwan’s infrastructure and public trust.
In March, Lai described China as a “foreign hostile force”—a comment that drew outrage from Beijing and criticism from the KMT. The opposition accused him of inflaming tensions unnecessarily, while Chinese state media painted Lai as a warmonger and extremist.
Analysts say the chaotic domestic political scene plays directly into China’s strategy.
“The more dysfunctional Taiwan looks, the easier it is for Beijing to sell its narrative that democracy doesn’t work,” said Hass. “Beijing wants to convince Taiwanese people that reunification would bring stability and prosperity.”
David Sacks, an Asia policy expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, noted that Beijing has essentially written off Lai as a negotiating partner. “They’ve decided that he’s not someone they can work with,” Sacks said.
But that doesn’t mean China is in a rush to act. If Taiwan continues to be consumed by infighting, the thinking in Beijing may be that time is on their side.
Chen Fang-yu, a political scientist at Soochow University in Taipei, argues that the gridlock in Taiwan could actually delay any Chinese move toward military escalation.
“All of China’s pressure seems to be working in favor of the opposition,” Chen said. “They’re making gains in local elections. The DPP has now governed for three terms. People may simply get tired of them.”
If the DPP continues to struggle domestically, China may prefer to sit back and wait for the political pendulum to swing. The KMT’s recent successes in regional elections have only reinforced that belief.
“For now, maybe China can wait,” Chen said.
Taiwan’s foreign policy is also entering uncertain waters. The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency has introduced new questions about Washington’s long-term commitment to Taiwan’s security. While Trump’s first administration approved record arms sales to Taiwan, his unpredictable approach to alliances and China policy has many in Taipei nervous.
“In foreign affairs, it’s now a period of uncertainty,” said Sacks. “The Lai administration is trying to navigate that while dealing with paralysis at home and pressure from abroad.”
Despite this, Taiwan continues to bolster its diplomatic presence through informal channels. The U.S., Japan, and some European countries have reaffirmed support for Taiwan’s democracy, even without formal diplomatic ties. But how much tangible support Taiwan can count on in a crisis remains unclear.
For Lai, the next year will be crucial. His administration must find a way to break the political stalemate, rebuild public trust, and maintain national security in the face of relentless pressure from China.
That will require more than just tactical victories in parliament or fiery speeches about sovereignty. It will mean addressing the real economic and social concerns of Taiwanese voters—housing, jobs, wages—while keeping democratic institutions intact.
“It’s about showing the people that democracy still delivers,” said Glaser. “If Taiwan descends into political dysfunction, then Beijing doesn’t need to fire a shot. They’ll have already won the narrative war.”
