Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te is set to embark on a diplomatic tour of Taiwan’s three remaining Pacific allies—Palau, the Marshall Islands, and Tuvalu—starting November 30, as announced by his office on Friday. The visit, Lai’s first official overseas trip since his inauguration in May, underscores Taiwan’s strategic efforts to maintain and strengthen its international alliances amidst escalating tensions with China.
While Taiwan’s government has been cautious about disclosing details of Lai’s itinerary, speculation surrounds potential stopovers in the United States. Historically, Taiwanese leaders have leveraged visits to allied nations to make unofficial stopovers in the U.S., a key supporter and arms supplier of Taiwan. Such visits have consistently drawn Beijing’s ire, with China viewing these engagements as provocative challenges to its claims of sovereignty over Taiwan.
Reports suggest Lai may transit through Hawaii and potentially Guam during his trip. However, Deputy Taiwan Foreign Minister Tien Chung-kwang declined to confirm these details, stating only that arrangements are “in the planning stages” and will be revealed at an “appropriate time.”
“The principle for these stopovers,” Tien explained, “is that they are handled with safety, dignity, convenience, and comfort in mind.” He emphasized that Taiwan remains undeterred by potential Chinese backlash. “We won’t dance to their tune. We will do what we have to do and what we plan,” he said.
China, which considers Taiwan a breakaway province under its “one-China principle,” has consistently objected to Taiwan’s diplomatic efforts. While Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian did not specifically comment on Lai’s potential U.S. transit, he reiterated that the “one-China principle” reflects the international consensus.
Beijing’s opposition to Taiwan’s foreign engagement often extends beyond rhetoric. In recent years, China has increased military pressure on Taiwan, frequently conducting large-scale drills near the island in response to high-profile visits. For example, China staged military exercises following Vice President Lai’s U.S. stopover in August of last year and President Tsai Ing-wen’s meeting with then-U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in April.
Taiwan’s diplomatic outreach in the Pacific has become increasingly critical as China vies for influence in the region. Of the 12 countries that maintain formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, three are located in the Pacific. These nations—Palau, the Marshall Islands, and Tuvalu—have consistently expressed support for Taiwan, even as China has successfully lured others, such as Nauru, to switch allegiance.
President Lai’s itinerary includes a visit to each of these countries, beginning with Palau on November 30 and concluding with Tuvalu after a stop in the Marshall Islands on December 3. The specifics of Lai’s schedule during the intervening period remain undisclosed.
The leadership of these Pacific nations has warmly welcomed Lai’s forthcoming visit. The Marshall Islands’ President Hilda Heine remarked on Facebook, “As a long-term partner and good friend of the Marshall Islands, we look forward to warmly receiving President Lai.” Similar sentiments were echoed by officials from Palau and Tuvalu.
Despite increasing Chinese pressure, Taiwan remains steadfast in its global engagement efforts. Taiwan’s government rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claims and argues for its right to foster international partnerships and for its leaders to undertake foreign visits. These diplomatic endeavors, especially in the Pacific, are seen as vital to countering Beijing’s campaign to isolate Taiwan.
Taiwan has also framed its outreach as mutually beneficial for partner countries. In addition to economic and development assistance, Taiwan promotes shared values such as democracy and freedom. In recent years, these efforts have been bolstered by partnerships in healthcare, education, and infrastructure development.
The United States plays a pivotal role in Taiwan’s global strategy, not only as a major arms supplier but also as a strategic ally. While Washington maintains official ties with Beijing under the “one-China policy,” it continues to engage with Taipei through unofficial channels, including high-profile visits and arms sales.
President Lai’s potential transit through U.S. territories like Hawaii and Guam would be consistent with past practices by Taiwanese leaders. During such stopovers, Taiwanese officials often meet with supportive U.S. politicians, deliver speeches, and highlight Taiwan’s democratic credentials. These interactions, though unofficial, carry significant symbolic weight, reinforcing the U.S.-Taiwan partnership.
However, such moves are fraught with risks. In August 2022, China held military drills around Taiwan following Lai’s return from Paraguay, which included U.S. stopovers. Similarly, in April 2023, Beijing staged war games after then-President Tsai’s meeting with Speaker McCarthy in Los Angeles. These incidents illustrate the delicate balance Taiwan and the U.S. must maintain in managing their unofficial ties while minimizing the potential for escalation with China.
Lai’s visit to Palau, the Marshall Islands, and Tuvalu is also emblematic of a broader geopolitical struggle in the Pacific. The region has become a battleground for influence between China and the United States, with Taiwan caught in the crossfire. While Washington has sought to bolster ties with Pacific island nations, Beijing has leveraged its economic clout to lure countries away from Taiwan’s orbit.
In January, Nauru became the latest Pacific island nation to switch diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China, underscoring the fragility of Taiwan’s alliances. Lai’s visit aims to reinforce Taiwan’s commitment to its remaining allies and underscore the tangible benefits of their partnership.
Taiwan’s partnerships in the Pacific are not solely defined by political maneuvering. The island nation has long championed shared values with its allies, such as democracy, human rights, and environmental sustainability. Taiwan has also been an active contributor to development projects in the region, including medical missions, disaster relief, and infrastructure support.
Lai’s trip will likely highlight these initiatives, reinforcing Taiwan’s reputation as a reliable and benevolent partner. By showcasing the tangible benefits of its alliances, Taiwan aims to solidify its relationships while countering China’s narrative of inevitable dominance.
As President Lai prepares for his diplomatic journey, Taiwan faces a complex web of challenges. The island’s efforts to maintain its international presence must navigate Beijing’s opposition, the shifting allegiances of partner countries, and the broader geopolitical dynamics of U.S.-China rivalry.
While Lai’s Pacific tour is a critical step in safeguarding Taiwan’s diplomatic ties, it also carries inherent risks. Beijing’s likely response, whether through military drills or diplomatic protests, could further strain cross-strait relations. Nonetheless, Taiwan’s leaders remain resolute in their commitment to engaging with the global community.
