In the wake of escalating tensions between Moscow and Western countries, Russia’s recent focus has shifted to islands belonging to Western nations, particularly those with complex legal, demographic, and strategic importance. As relations between Russia and the West have deteriorated further since the onset of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has turned its attention to regions such as Norway’s Svalbard archipelago, Sweden’s Gotland Island, and now, Finland’s Åland Islands.
While Svalbard and Gotland have drawn attention due to their military importance, particularly in the context of growing Nordic defense initiatives, the Åland Islands present a unique geopolitical conundrum. As Moscow assesses potential vulnerabilities in Western defense frameworks, Russian officials and commentators have increasingly suggested that the Åland Islands could provide a strategic opportunity for Russia to exploit perceived divisions within NATO and the Nordic countries.
Åland Islands
The Åland Islands are an autonomous and demilitarized region of Finland, situated at the entrance to both the Gulf of Bothnia and the Gulf of Finland. This archipelago of approximately 6,000 small islands is located at a strategic crossroads for international trade routes, undersea cables, and pipelines. Despite their sparse population—only one percent of the islands are inhabited by roughly 30,000 Swedish-speaking residents—Åland has a critical role in regional security dynamics.
Since 1921, Åland’s demilitarized status has been upheld under international law, a decision originally imposed by the League of Nations after World War I. This arrangement allows the islands significant autonomy, with a local government that enacts most laws and exemptions from Finnish military service for Åland residents. Swedish is the only official language, reflecting the population’s cultural ties to Sweden. Furthermore, several countries, including Russia, maintain consulates in the archipelago’s capital, Mariehamn, a situation that has increasingly raised questions about the role of foreign diplomatic presence on the islands in a shifting security environment.
The stability of this arrangement has been increasingly called into question, particularly in light of Finland’s decision to join NATO in April 2023. As Finland integrates deeper into NATO’s defense structures, the Åland Islands’ demilitarized status has become a point of contention within Finland’s domestic politics, as well as in discussions about regional security. Some Finnish political figures and security analysts have advocated for revisiting the islands’ legal status, drawing parallels to Sweden’s remilitarization of Gotland, another strategically vital island in the Baltic Sea.
NATO Membership and Calls for Change
Finland’s accession to NATO in 2023 brought new scrutiny to the status of the Åland Islands. Shortly after Helsinki’s official NATO membership, a petition garnered 50,000 signatures in Finland, demanding that the government close the Russian consulate in Mariehamn. The petitioners cited both Russia’s closure of Finnish consulates in Russia and alleged misconduct by the Russian consulate, which they claimed posed a threat to Finland’s sovereignty and security.
While the Finnish parliament declined to act on the petition, and the newly elected Finnish President Alexander Stubb emphasized Helsinki’s reluctance to unilaterally change the status of the Åland Islands, the debate over the region’s demilitarization continues to simmer. Hardliners within Finland’s defense establishment argue that Finland must reconsider its approach, particularly given the evolving security landscape in the Baltic Sea. Comparisons have been drawn to Sweden’s swift remilitarization of Gotland, which was demilitarized after the Cold War but reintegrated into Sweden’s defense infrastructure in response to Russia’s growing assertiveness in the region.
Russian media and political figures have reacted sharply to these debates. Russian commentators have suggested that any moves by Finland to alter the status of the Åland Islands would constitute a direct threat to Russian security interests in the Baltic Sea. Moscow’s primary concern centers on maintaining a demilitarized status for the islands, which it views as a buffer zone preventing NATO from gaining a stronger foothold in the Baltic region.
Russia’s Strategic Interests in the Baltic Sea
For Russia, the Åland Islands represent more than just a diplomatic or territorial dispute—they are a key element of Moscow’s broader strategic calculus in the Baltic Sea. Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia’s territorial presence in the Baltic has been significantly reduced, limited to the enclave of Kaliningrad and the area around St. Petersburg. As a result, Russia has become increasingly sensitive to any perceived threats to its access to the Baltic Sea, particularly as NATO strengthens its position in the region.
Several influential Russian commentators have underscored the importance of Åland’s neutrality and demilitarization for Moscow’s ability to safeguard its national interests. Aleksandr Dmitriyevsky of the Izborsky Club, a conservative Russian think tank, and Vsevolod Shimov of the Russian Association of Baltic Research, have both issued stark warnings that any changes to Åland’s legal status could provoke a forceful response from Moscow. Their comments reflect a broader concern within Russian policy circles that any further encroachment by NATO on Russia’s borders, even through non-militarized territories like Åland, could escalate into direct confrontation.
The view from Moscow is that maintaining Åland’s demilitarized status is crucial to preserving regional stability and preventing the Baltic Sea from becoming an even more militarized zone. Any shift in the status quo, such as Finland seeking to remilitarize the archipelago or push Russia out of Mariehamn, could spark a security crisis that Moscow is eager to avoid. However, Moscow has also shown a willingness to preemptively act when it perceives its security interests are at risk, leading to fears that Russia could take aggressive steps to maintain influence over the region.
Escalating Threats and Military Posturing
Recent developments have heightened concerns that Russia may take more concrete actions to assert its interests in the Åland Islands. In September 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the commencement of “Ocean 2024,” a large-scale naval exercise in the Baltic Sea and North Atlantic. According to the Kremlin, this was the largest Russian naval drill in over 30 years, and Western observers have expressed concerns that it may signal preparations for future military operations.
At a session summarizing the results of the exercise, Nikolai Patrushev, one of Putin’s top security advisors, hinted that the Russian Navy was capable of carrying out “non-standard operational tasks,” a vague yet ominous statement that many analysts interpreted as a potential warning of military action against countries in the region. Patrushev’s remarks appeared to be aimed at Finland and its Western allies, signaling that Moscow would not tolerate any moves to alter the Åland Islands’ status.
Given Norway’s and Sweden’s recent bolstering of their military defenses on Svalbard and Gotland, any overt Russian actions in these areas would likely trigger an immediate NATO response under Article 5 of the alliance’s treaty. The Åland Islands, however, remain an ambiguous area, as their demilitarized status complicates NATO’s ability to defend the archipelago without provoking further tensions. Russian strategists may view Åland as the last remaining weak point in the Nordic region—a potential entry point for exerting influence or disrupting Western unity.
Will Åland Become the Next Flashpoint?
The future of the Åland Islands remains uncertain as Finland navigates the complex balance between maintaining its traditional policy of neutrality in the archipelago and responding to growing concerns over Russian influence. While Helsinki has thus far resisted calls to change Åland’s demilitarized status, the pressures from within Finland, as well as external threats from Moscow, are making it increasingly difficult for Finnish leaders to avoid the issue.
As Russia continues to posture aggressively in the Baltic Sea and North Atlantic, Finland’s leaders will need to carefully weigh the risks of maintaining the status quo against the potential benefits of taking a stronger stance, as Sweden has done with Gotland. With the West increasingly considering remilitarization as a necessary step to secure the region, the Åland Islands may soon become the next focal point in the broader geopolitical struggle between Russia and NATO.
Moscow’s strategic interest in the Åland Islands is clear: preserving a demilitarized buffer zone that limits NATO’s ability to challenge Russian power in the Baltic. However, the growing tensions between Finland and Russia, coupled with the intensifying security environment in Northern Europe, suggest that the status of the Åland Islands will remain a contentious issue in the months and years to come. Whether through diplomatic maneuvering or military posturing, the Åland Islands are likely to remain a flashpoint in the ongoing confrontation between East and West.
