Thailand’s Prime Minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, has called upon the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to step up its efforts in resolving Myanmar’s protracted civil war. Speaking at a high-profile event in Bangkok ahead of this week’s ASEAN summit in Laos, Paetongtarn emphasized the need for the 10-member bloc to take an assertive role in ending the conflict that has ravaged Myanmar since February 2021.
“Myanmar has suffered for too long, and ASEAN must play an important role in bringing peace back as soon as possible,” Paetongtarn said in her address, underscoring the urgency of regional cooperation.
As leaders from ASEAN gather in Laos, the conflict in Myanmar is expected to dominate the agenda, particularly in light of the escalating violence and humanitarian crisis that has gripped the country since the military ousted the civilian government led by Aung San Suu Kyi. What began as peaceful protests against the military takeover has devolved into an armed rebellion, further destabilizing a region already grappling with complex economic and political challenges.
Myanmar, a country of 55 million people, has been in turmoil since the military coup in February 2021. The junta, led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, removed the democratically elected government, citing unsubstantiated claims of electoral fraud in the November 2020 elections. The military’s move ignited widespread protests that quickly escalated into a nationwide resistance movement.
The resistance, led by various ethnic groups, civil society organizations, and the shadow government known as the National Unity Government (NUG), has turned into a grinding civil war. Over the past three years, fighting between the military and rebel forces has devastated the country, displacing millions of people and leaving nearly a third of the population in need of humanitarian assistance.
The military junta has responded to the resistance with brutal crackdowns, indiscriminate airstrikes, and widespread human rights abuses. The junta labels its opponents as terrorists, making any meaningful dialogue or peace process challenging.
In the aftermath of the coup, ASEAN unveiled a peace plan known as the “Five-Point Consensus” in April 2021. This plan called for an immediate cessation of violence, constructive dialogue among all parties involved, the provision of humanitarian assistance, the appointment of a special envoy to mediate the crisis, and a visit to Myanmar by ASEAN representatives.
However, the consensus has failed to make significant progress. Myanmar’s military regime has refused to comply with the terms of the peace plan, including the call for dialogue with its opponents, whom it brands as terrorists. The junta’s reluctance to engage in meaningful discussions has stymied regional efforts to resolve the conflict.
As a result of this failure, ASEAN has barred Myanmar’s military leaders from its high-level summits, a move that has both isolated the junta and vexed the bloc’s most prominent member states. This approach, however, has done little to alleviate the suffering in Myanmar or bring about a peaceful resolution to the crisis.
Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s remarks reflect a renewed commitment from Thailand to engage more proactively in the Myanmar crisis. Thailand, which shares a long and porous border with Myanmar, has been deeply affected by the ongoing conflict, with thousands of refugees fleeing into Thai territory and cross-border tensions rising.
Paetongtarn emphasized Thailand’s intention to collaborate closely with Malaysia, which will assume the ASEAN chairmanship in 2025. “We will work together using diplomatic means to resolve the conflict in Myanmar,” she stated, signaling a possible shift in strategy within ASEAN’s leadership. Malaysia, which has consistently been a vocal advocate for a more robust approach to Myanmar, could play a key role in reinvigorating regional efforts to mediate the conflict.
This diplomatic alignment between Thailand and Malaysia is seen as a promising development for ASEAN’s long-stalled peace initiative. Many analysts believe that the time is ripe for ASEAN to exert greater pressure on the Myanmar junta, especially as the regime has become increasingly isolated both regionally and internationally.
Paetongtarn’s predecessor, Srettha Thavisin, who served as Thailand’s prime minister until earlier this year, has also advocated for a diplomatic solution to the Myanmar crisis. In an interview with Reuters in April, Srettha suggested that the military junta was becoming increasingly vulnerable due to the sustained resistance and internal divisions. He indicated that this might present an opportunity for ASEAN and the international community to push for negotiations.
“Maybe it’s time to reach out and make a deal,” Srettha said, reflecting a growing consensus among regional leaders that the military junta may be more open to talks than it has been in the past. While there has been little visible progress toward a formal negotiation process, Srettha’s comments highlight a potential opening that ASEAN could exploit if it can present a united and coordinated diplomatic front.
The Myanmar crisis has not only drawn regional attention but also sparked significant international concern. Last week, Indonesia, which holds the ASEAN chairmanship in 2024, hosted a meeting involving the United Nations and various stakeholders, including opponents of Myanmar’s military regime. The gathering sought to explore ways to address the humanitarian crisis and chart a path toward a political resolution.
The international community, including the United States, the European Union, and neighboring countries such as China and India, has called for an end to the violence and a return to democratic rule in Myanmar. However, geopolitical interests have complicated efforts to form a cohesive and effective response to the crisis. China, in particular, maintains strong economic and military ties with the Myanmar junta, and its influence in the region has at times undermined international efforts to pressure the regime.
ASEAN’s central role in mediating the Myanmar conflict is crucial, as the bloc represents the primary regional diplomatic body that has both the proximity and the vested interest to resolve the issue. However, ASEAN’s traditional policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of its member states has been a significant barrier to more forceful action. Many observers believe that this policy, while designed to maintain regional harmony, has limited the bloc’s ability to address the crisis effectively.
One of the most pressing issues facing ASEAN leaders as they meet in Laos is the humanitarian catastrophe unfolding in Myanmar. The United Nations estimates that more than 17 million people in the country are in urgent need of aid, with many areas suffering from food shortages, lack of medical care, and displacement due to the ongoing violence.
The Myanmar military’s use of airstrikes and heavy artillery against civilian populations has exacerbated the crisis, leading to widespread displacement and destruction of infrastructure. Aid organizations have struggled to deliver assistance to affected areas, as the military continues to impose restrictions on humanitarian access.
ASEAN’s humanitarian arm, the ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on Disaster Management (AHA Centre), has been involved in efforts to deliver aid to Myanmar, but these initiatives have been hampered by the junta’s reluctance to allow unfettered access to conflict zones.
Paetongtarn Shinawatra and other regional leaders have underscored the need for ASEAN to ramp up its humanitarian response, both by providing more aid and by pressuring the military regime to allow access to those in need. As the conflict drags on, the humanitarian crisis is expected to worsen, placing further strain on Myanmar’s neighbors and the international community.
As ASEAN leaders convene in Laos, the challenge of finding a path toward peace in Myanmar looms large. While the bloc has made some attempts to address the crisis, including through the Five-Point Consensus, the lack of progress has left many questioning ASEAN’s ability to mediate effectively.
Thailand’s renewed diplomatic push, combined with Malaysia’s upcoming leadership role within ASEAN, offers a potential turning point for the bloc’s efforts. However, any successful resolution will require the military junta to come to the negotiating table, something they have so far been unwilling to do.
The international community, particularly ASEAN’s key partners such as the United States, the European Union, and China, will also need to play a supportive role in any peace process. While geopolitical interests may complicate these efforts, the urgency of the crisis in Myanmar cannot be overstated.
As Paetongtarn Shinawatra emphasized in her speech, “ASEAN must act now to bring peace back to Myanmar.” Whether the bloc can rise to the challenge remains to be seen, but the stakes have never been higher for Myanmar and the region as a whole.
