Thailand witnessed another dramatic power shift on Sunday as billionaire construction tycoon and cannabis advocate Anutin Charnvirakul was sworn in as prime minister, ending the latest chapter of Shinawatra family dominance in Thai politics and setting the stage for fresh elections within four months.
The ascension of Anutin, leader of the Bhumjaithai Party, marks the third change of leadership in just two years. His premiership follows the dramatic court-ordered removal of Paetongtarn Shinawatra last month, which further weakened the once-mighty political dynasty that had defined Thai politics since the early 2000s.
The rise of Anutin, however, signals not just a transfer of power but also an ideological pivot: from populist, dynasty-driven governance to a pragmatic, conservative leader who carries the paradoxical mantle of being both an establishment ally and the man who spearheaded cannabis decriminalisation in 2022.
The Shinawatra family has dominated Thailand’s political stage since telecommunications tycoon Thaksin Shinawatra’s landslide election win in 2001. Their populist policies, ranging from universal healthcare to village development funds, won enduring loyalty from Thailand’s rural majority. But their alignment has always clashed with the monarchy-aligned establishment and the military.
Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thaksin’s youngest daughter, entered politics with promises to rejuvenate her family’s legacy. Yet her premiership lasted only a year. In late August, the Constitutional Court ruled that she had breached ministerial ethics during a border dispute with Cambodia, triggering her dismissal.
The decision echoed the fate of other Shinawatras who were ousted by coups or courts. Analysts say it signals the end of an era. “The dynasty has never looked weaker,” said Preecha Malakul, a political science professor at Chulalongkorn University. “Paetongtarn’s removal underscores that the courts and establishment will not tolerate another Shinawatra-led resurgence.”
Thaksin, meanwhile, quietly departed Thailand for Dubai on the eve of the parliamentary vote that confirmed Anutin. Although he insists the trip is for “medical treatment” and visiting friends, the timing raised eyebrows. The Supreme Court is scheduled to rule Tuesday on a case relating to his hospital stay after his 2023 return from exile. Depending on the verdict, he could be forced back into prison despite his early release last year.
The Shinawatras’ decline, at least for now, cleared the path for Anutin to cobble together a fragile coalition and take power.
Anutin’s parliamentary victory on Friday was hard-won. Having abandoned his alliance with Pheu Thai earlier this year, he pivoted to form a bloc with smaller conservative and centrist parties. His ascension was made possible only by pledging to dissolve parliament and call for fresh elections within four months.
That unusual arrangement reflects the political balancing act Anutin faces. “He is a compromise candidate,” noted Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a Bangkok-based analyst. “He is acceptable to the establishment but has just enough popular appeal to sell himself to the electorate.”
On Saturday, Anutin announced his first cabinet picks, seeking to reassure jittery markets and the diplomatic community. His finance minister will be a senior treasury department official, while the energy portfolio will go to a former oil and gas executive. A retired career diplomat was named foreign minister. None are sitting MPs – an unconventional but deliberate move. “These appointments will bring confidence,” Anutin said, suggesting he wants technocrats rather than political allies steering key ministries.
For many Thais, Anutin is most famous – or infamous – as the architect of the 2022 cannabis decriminalisation, which made Thailand the first country in Asia to legalise the plant. Though popular among younger urbanites and entrepreneurs, the policy remains controversial. Critics argue that the rollout was chaotic, with unclear regulations fueling public concern about recreational abuse.
Anutin, however, frames cannabis reform as an economic opportunity. “It created jobs, businesses, and hope for farmers,” he said during a press briefing earlier this year. As health minister during the pandemic, he also oversaw Thailand’s COVID-19 response. But his legacy there is mixed. His swift vaccine procurement and gradual reopening of borders were praised by some, yet his public comments – including remarks blaming “dirty Westerners” for spreading COVID-19 – sparked international backlash.
He also carries a reputation as a construction magnate with deep pockets. His family’s fortune stems from Sino-Thai Engineering and Construction, one of Thailand’s largest infrastructure firms. That business background lends him credibility with business elites, but raises questions about conflicts of interest in office.
Anutin’s tenure officially began Sunday after receiving royal endorsement from King Maha Vajiralongkorn, a constitutional requirement in Thailand. At Bhumjaithai Party headquarters, the royal decree was read aloud: “His Majesty the King has endorsed Mr. Anutin Charnvirakul to be prime minister from now onwards.”
Standing before supporters, Anutin pledged to serve with “honesty and morality worthy of His Majesty’s trust.” He struck a sober note about the brevity of his mandate: “Though we do not have much time, I hope to receive cooperation from everyone. We will dedicate ourselves to work because we only have four months.”
That four-month horizon is both a challenge and an opportunity. It gives Anutin little time to pass substantive reforms, but offers him the chance to present himself as an effective caretaker ahead of elections.
The road forward is fraught with challenges. First, he must stabilize a coalition bound more by convenience than conviction. Smaller parties have already signaled they expect policy concessions in exchange for their support. With elections looming, their loyalty is tenuous.
Second, Anutin must navigate a polarized political landscape. The Shinawatras retain strong support in the north and northeast, while progressive youth movements continue to demand reforms to the monarchy and military’s role in politics. Anutin, a conservative with establishment ties, is unlikely to champion such causes, but ignoring them risks renewed street protests.
Third, the economy remains fragile. Tourism, which accounts for nearly 20 percent of GDP, has yet to fully recover from the pandemic. Inflation is easing but household debt remains at record highs. The new finance minister will be under immediate pressure to deliver stability.
Foreign policy is another test. Anutin inherits a delicate balancing act between the United States and China, both of whom court Bangkok as a strategic partner. His appointment of a seasoned diplomat as foreign minister suggests continuity, but his own gaffes on the international stage could complicate matters.
Anutin’s break with Pheu Thai earlier this summer was decisive. His outrage at Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s handling of the Cambodian border dispute provided the official pretext, but insiders say his move was opportunistic. “He saw the writing on the wall,” said a coalition negotiator who asked not to be named. “Paetongtarn was vulnerable, and Anutin seized his moment.”
By aligning himself against the Shinawatras at the right time, Anutin positioned himself as the establishment’s preferred alternative. Yet his insistence on early elections signals he does not want to be seen as merely their puppet.
Even in exile, the Shinawatras loom large. Thaksin’s pledge to return from Dubai for his court hearing on Tuesday has heightened public interest. If the ruling goes against him, it could trigger protests from his loyalists. Conversely, if he escapes jail time, critics will see it as further evidence of a justice system that bends for the powerful.
Anutin has pledged neutrality: “My government will adhere to the law and will not interfere in the justice system, letting the law take its course.” Yet the optics are inescapable. His government’s survival could depend on how it manages public perception of Thaksin’s fate.
With elections expected by January, Anutin’s immediate task is to govern credibly enough to position Bhumjaithai as a serious contender. His strategy will likely emphasize stability, competence, and economic management rather than ideological battles.
Bhumjaithai’s brand has long rested on pragmatism – its cannabis policy being the boldest example. Whether that appeal can carry nationwide elections against entrenched parties remains to be seen. The coming months will serve as a trial run for Anutin’s leadership style.
