Thailand made history by electing its youngest-ever prime minister, 38-year-old Paetongtarn “Ing” Shinawatra On August 16, 2024. As the daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra, a prominent and polarizing figure in Thai politics, Paetongtarn’s rise marks a significant moment for the country’s political landscape. Her leadership of the Pheu Thai Party, the country’s second-largest political force, has sparked both hope and skepticism. With a complex political heritage and a nation grappling with ongoing challenges, Paetongtarn’s premiership has become a focal point for debate about the future of democracy in Thailand.
Paetongtarn’s appointment as prime minister is seen by many as a breath of fresh air in the often-stagnant waters of Thai politics. At just 38 years old, her leadership represents a generational shift that many Thais hope will bring new perspectives and energy. Her rise comes shortly after significant institutional changes in the Thai political system. In June 2024, the term of the senators appointed by the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), the military junta that ruled Thailand from 2014 to 2023, came to an end. These senators, installed under the 2017 Constitution, had been instrumental in shaping the political direction of the country, including voting in prime ministerial elections. Their departure marks a critical shift in Thailand’s political dynamics.
With the new Senate no longer having the right to vote for the prime minister, Paetongtarn’s election appears to signal a move towards a more democratically accountable government. This change, combined with her youth and fresh image, has led some pundits to hail her election as a sign of democratic progress. However, the complexities of Thailand’s political system mean that such optimism might be premature.
A Turbulent Political Landscape
Thailand’s recent political history has been marked by deep-seated tensions and conflicting interests. The legislative elections on May 14, 2023, were a watershed moment in the country’s political landscape. Emerging from the dissolution of the Anakhot Mai (Future Forward) party, the social democratic Kao Klai (Move Forward) party surprised many by winning more than 14 million votes. This impressive showing underscored the public’s desire for substantial reforms, including changes to the military, education system, civil bureaucracy, and the controversial lèse-majesté law, which penalizes defamation against the monarchy.
Despite the enthusiasm that Kao Klai generated, its reformist agenda quickly met resistance. The conservative establishment, including the 250 senators appointed by the NCPO, blocked the party’s attempts to form a coalition majority. The popular Kao Klai leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, found his path to the prime minister’s office thwarted, and the party was forced into opposition despite its electoral success.
The political deadlock culminated on September 5, 2023, when businessman Srettha Thavisin of the Pheu Thai Party was elected prime minister. His election followed a deal with pro-military and pro-monarchy factions, a move seen by many as a betrayal of Pheu Thai’s earlier promises to avoid alliances with these groups. While Srettha’s government managed to legalize same-sex marriage in December 2023, his administration achieved little else and struggled with declining popularity.
Kao Klai’s Dissolution and the Road Ahead
The political turmoil continued into 2024. On August 7, the Thai Constitutional Court dissolved the Kao Klai party, citing its campaign to reform Article 112 of the penal code, which covers lèse-majesté, as a threat to the political system. This decision, seen by many as politically motivated, resulted in the disqualification of Pita Limjaroenrat and several other party leaders from political activities for ten years. The ruling underscored the powerful influence of conservative forces and the judiciary in shaping Thailand’s political landscape.
Only a week later, on August 14, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin was dismissed from office due to allegations of ethical violations in the appointment of a legislator with a corruption conviction. These back-to-back events highlighted the volatility of Thai politics and set the stage for Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s rise to power.
Shinawatra Legacy
Paetongtarn’s ascent to the prime minister’s office has cemented the influence of the Shinawatra family in Thai politics. Her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, a former prime minister, remains a deeply influential figure. His tenure from 2001 to 2006 ended with a military coup, and he spent years in self-imposed exile until his return in 2023. Paetongtarn’s uncle, Somchai Wongsawat, briefly served as prime minister in 2008 before being ousted by the Constitutional Court for electoral fraud, and her aunt, Yingluck Shinawatra, served from 2011 to 2014 before being deposed by another military coup and subsequently fleeing into exile.
The Shinawatra family’s political journey mirrors the broader tensions within Thailand. Their populist policies have garnered significant support from the rural and working-class populations, but they have also faced accusations of corruption, nepotism, and authoritarian tendencies. These dual perceptions make the Shinawatra name both a powerful political brand and a lightning rod for controversy.
Thaksin’s recent return to Thailand and his avoidance of significant jail time despite a conviction for corruption have fueled suspicions of a behind-the-scenes deal with the conservative establishment. His sentence was quickly reduced, and he never served time in a conventional prison, instead being housed in a VIP room in a police hospital. This perceived leniency has sparked allegations of favoritism and deepened skepticism about the rule of law in Thailand.
Challenges Facing Paetongtarn Shinawatra
As Paetongtarn steps into her new role, she faces a daunting array of challenges. Thailand’s economy has been sluggish, and the political climate is fraught with instability. The legacy of her predecessor, Srettha Thavisin, hangs over her administration, particularly the controversial digital wallet policy, which promised a one-time payment of 10,000 baht to every Thai citizen aged 16 and over. The policy, while popular among the public, has been criticized by the central bank for its potential impact on public finances and the risk of increased corruption. The National Anti-Corruption Commission has warned that the government could be held liable for negligence, echoing the accusations that led to Yingluck Shinawatra’s removal from office.
Balancing the competing interests within the ruling coalition will be another major challenge for Paetongtarn. The alliance between the Pheu Thai Party and its erstwhile conservative and pro-military adversaries is an uneasy one, and maintaining cohesion will require skillful political maneuvering. The coalition’s ability to implement meaningful reforms remains in question, as does its commitment to democratic principles.
Shadow of Thaksin
One of the most pressing concerns for Paetongtarn’s administration is the perception of her as a proxy for her father. Thaksin’s influence in Thai politics is undeniable, and his recent statements suggesting that he still holds sway over Paetongtarn have raised eyebrows. His comment, “she is not dominated by me, but she is under my control. So what? She is my daughter,” underscores the ongoing perception that Paetongtarn’s leadership is a continuation of Thaksin’s political legacy. This perception could undermine her credibility as a leader in her own right and fuel opposition from those wary of the Shinawatra family’s influence.
The political opposition is already mobilizing against the Shinawatras. A petition has been filed to ban the Pheu Thai Party on the grounds of Thaksin’s alleged dominance, a move that echoes the dissolution of the Kao Klai party. Such actions highlight the fraught nature of Thai politics, where legal and institutional mechanisms are frequently employed to sideline political rivals.
Looking ahead, Paetongtarn’s government has a narrow window to establish its credibility and address the concerns of the Thai populace. The next legislative elections are three years away, and the Pheu Thai Party faces stiff competition. The rise of the Bhumjaithai (Thai Pride) Party, which has grown increasingly influential, poses a significant challenge. With strong ties to the military and conservative factions, Bhumjaithai is well-positioned to attract support from those wary of Pheu Thai’s populist policies.
The influence of local power structures, known as “baan yai” (big houses), also plays a crucial role in shaping Thai politics. These networks, composed of wealthy and powerful families, exert considerable control over regional and provincial politics through patronage systems. Their support could be a decisive factor in the next elections, potentially tipping the scales in favor of conservative parties.
Meanwhile, the newly formed Prachachon (People’s Party), composed of former Kao Klai members, promises to provide a robust opposition in Parliament. With 143 MPs, the party is determined to carry forward the reformist agenda that resonated with voters in 2023. Led by 37-year-old entrepreneur Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, Prachachon represents a fresh political force that could challenge the status quo and advocate for the democratic reforms that many Thais are demanding. Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s election as prime minister marks a new chapter in Thailand’s political story, but it is a chapter written against a backdrop of deep-seated conflicts and institutional constraints.
