The recent offer from former US President Donald Trump to sell F-35 Lightning II fighter jets to India has sparked a debate in defense and geopolitical circles. The offer, if pursued, would mark a major shift in India’s military procurement strategy. However, multiple hurdles—ranging from cost and compatibility issues to India’s existing reliance on Russian weaponry—complicate the prospect.
At the heart of this development lies the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) urgent need to bolster its fleet, primarily to counter the growing aerial superiority of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF). Yet, Trump’s offer raises many questions: Is India prepared for a fifth-generation US-made jet? What are the strategic, financial, and operational implications of such a deal? And will geopolitical considerations outweigh practical concerns?
India-US Fighter Jet Conundrum
India has traditionally depended on a mix of Russian, French, and domestic fighter aircraft. The Indian Air Force currently operates Sukhoi Su-30MKIs, Mirage-2000s, Rafales, Jaguars, and Tejas light combat aircraft. Unlike Turkey, which was expelled from the F-35 program for purchasing Russia’s S-400 missile system, India has not faced similar consequences despite its S-400 acquisition.
However, the US has historically tied F-35 sales to prior acquisitions of other American fighter jets. Washington had earlier proposed that India first purchase F-16s (rebranded as the F-21 for India) before considering the F-35. Even Lockheed Martin, the manufacturer of the F-35, has suggested that India is not yet ready for such an advanced aircraft due to the lack of prior experience operating American fighter jets.
The Modi government has emphasized the need for self-reliance in defense manufacturing under the “Make in India” initiative. This has resulted in India prioritizing the indigenous Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas and the upcoming Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA). New Delhi has also been reluctant to move forward with the $20 billion tender for 114 multi-role fighters from foreign manufacturers.
F-35: A Technological Marvel, but at What Cost?
The F-35 Lightning II is considered the world’s most advanced fifth-generation multi-role stealth fighter. It features cutting-edge avionics, advanced radar systems, networked warfare capabilities, and stealth technology. However, it is also the most expensive fighter jet program in history.
The total lifetime cost of the F-35 program is estimated at $2 trillion, with a flyaway cost of approximately $82.5 million per unit for the F-35A variant. For exports, the cost per unit rises to around $100–110 million, excluding weapons packages. Additionally, the long-term maintenance and operational costs push life-cycle expenses to astronomical levels.
For instance, Canada’s plan to procure 88 F-35A fighters is expected to cost its taxpayers up to $73.9 billion over the next four and a half decades. If India were to procure a similar number, the financial burden could reach $100 billion, making it one of the costliest defense acquisitions in Indian history.
Furthermore, it is highly unlikely that the US would allow technology transfer or manufacturing of F-35s in India, limiting New Delhi’s ability to modify, upgrade, or produce spare parts for the aircraft domestically.
Even if India overcomes financial constraints, integrating the F-35 into the IAF would be a logistical nightmare. The IAF’s existing infrastructure, communication systems, and aerial refueling mechanisms are primarily Russian or European in origin.
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Air-to-Air Refueling Issues
The IAF relies on Russian Il-78 refueling tankers, which are not compatible with the F-35’s refueling configuration. Without additional investment in US-standard refueling infrastructure, the F-35’s operational efficiency would be compromised. -
Data Integration Challenges
India’s Integrated Air Command & Control System (IACCS) is designed to work with a mix of Russian, Israeli, and indigenous radar networks. The F-35 operates on a proprietary US network-centric warfare system, which would require significant modifications to work with Indian infrastructure. -
Weapon Compatibility
Most of India’s air-to-air and air-to-ground weaponry is either Russian or European. The F-35, however, is designed to carry US and NATO-standard munitions, meaning India would need to purchase an entirely new suite of weapons at an additional cost. -
Operational Restrictions
The F-35 is highly software-dependent, and the US retains control over certain operational features. It is unclear if India would receive full control over software updates, limiting its autonomy in deploying the aircraft.
India’s Existing Fifth-Generation Fighter Plans
Despite the appeal of the F-35, India is already working on its own fifth-generation fighter, the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA). The AMCA, developed by the Defense Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), is expected to take its first flight by 2028 and enter service in the early 2030s.
Additionally, Russia has offered India a joint-production deal for the Su-57 Felon, a fifth-generation fighter already in service with the Russian Aerospace Forces. Unlike the F-35, which is unlikely to come with technology transfer, the Su-57 could be co-produced in India, aligning with the “Make in India” initiative.
US vs. Russia
The US has been actively courting India as a strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly as a counterbalance to China. Trump’s offer is part of a broader push to reduce India’s reliance on Russian defense equipment.
However, India has historically maintained a delicate balance between its ties with the US and Russia. Despite growing military cooperation with Washington, Russia remains India’s primary defense supplier. India also continues to purchase Russian oil despite Western sanctions, underlining its commitment to an independent foreign policy.
Additionally, India’s past experience with US arms deals has been mixed. The US has previously denied or restricted defense exports, including the refusal to supply India with nuclear propulsion technology for submarines. In contrast, Russia has been more willing to share critical defense technologies.
Will India Buy the “White Elephant”?
While the F-35 is undoubtedly an advanced and capable fighter, its induction into the IAF remains unlikely for several reasons:
- Cost: The financial burden of purchasing and maintaining the F-35 is immense, especially when compared to indigenous alternatives like the AMCA or Su-57.
- Compatibility Issues: The IAF’s existing fleet and infrastructure would require massive upgrades to accommodate the F-35.
- Lack of Technology Transfer: Without access to critical systems and upgrades, India would remain dependent on the US for operational support.
- Geopolitical Considerations: India’s strategic autonomy means it is unlikely to fully align with US defense policies, particularly at the cost of its longstanding relationship with Russia.
Instead of committing to an expensive, foreign-made fifth-generation fighter, India is likely to continue investing in the AMCA, LCA Mk2, and possibly the Su-57. The IAF’s immediate focus remains acquiring 114 multi-role fighters to maintain air superiority, but whether these will be American jets or from other sources remains uncertain.
Ultimately, India’s decision will hinge on balancing short-term needs with long-term strategic goals. While Trump’s offer may be tempting, India is unlikely to gamble on the F-35, a jet that may prove to be more of a liability than an asset in the long run.
