Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January is heightening anxieties across Tehran. Many Iranians recall the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign, which imposed sweeping sanctions and severely strained the nation’s economy. Now, as regional conflicts spiral following the October 2023 Gaza war, the prospect of intensified U.S. pressure under Trump has renewed fears about Iran’s economic and political future. This renewed tension arises as Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and other high-ranking officials brace for a likely return to policies that put Tehran on edge during Trump’s first term.
The conservative Iranian newspaper Jam-e Jam expressed this skepticism in stark imagery, with depictions of U.S. leaders as looming figures of discord. “The result of the U.S. elections will make no difference for us,” proclaimed the publication, echoing the skepticism of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. For many Iranians, the memories of Trump’s first term remain vivid, marked by crippling sanctions, escalated military posturing, and economic hardship.
When Trump assumed office in 2017, he quickly dismantled the landmark nuclear agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which had offered Iran sanctions relief in exchange for restricting its nuclear activities. After the U.S. unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018, Trump’s administration launched a sanctions campaign that targeted every level of Iran’s economy, from oil exports to banking. The Iranian rial depreciated rapidly, inflation soared, and access to critical goods dwindled, leaving the average Iranian to grapple with skyrocketing prices and economic uncertainty.
This strategy of “maximum pressure” has left scars, visible today in public concerns over Trump’s return. For Bashir Abbaspour, a 37-year-old employee of a private company in Tehran, the news of Trump’s victory felt like a grim reminder. “The sanctions will increase, and with that, the prices will too. It’s not a good thing for Iran,” he said, capturing the prevalent sense of dread that the new administration could further complicate life for ordinary Iranians.
Beyond economic sanctions, Trump’s first term also saw one of the most consequential escalations between Iran and the U.S. The killing of Qasem Soleimani, a revered general of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), in a January 2020 U.S. airstrike at Baghdad airport significantly escalated tensions. Soleimani, who led Iran’s overseas military efforts and was a highly symbolic figure, was mourned in massive street processions across Iran. His killing galvanized anti-American sentiments within Iran, with Khamenei calling Trump “unbalanced” and “foul-mouthed” in a speech that resonated deeply with many Iranians.
Iran retaliated by launching missile strikes on bases housing U.S. troops in Iraq, marking one of the highest points of tension since the two nations severed ties in 1979. The Soleimani killing solidified perceptions of the Trump administration as a primary antagonist in Iranian political discourse, one whose policies and actions demanded vigilance and caution.
Trump’s re-election comes amidst escalating conflicts in the Middle East, as violence has spread from Gaza into Lebanon, where Israel is now clashing with Hezbollah, a militant group backed by Iran. The Gaza war, triggered by a surprise attack from Iran-backed Hamas on Israel, has destabilized the region and drawn Iran deeper into the crisis. Tehran’s support for Hamas and Hezbollah, both adversaries of Israel, places it in direct opposition to U.S. regional interests, adding to tensions that Trump is expected to intensify.
Iran has made its presence felt, launching hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel in October 2023. Previously, in April, Iran also carried out a significant retaliatory attack after an airstrike on its consulate in Damascus, which it blamed on Israel. With each escalation, the complex web of alliances and enmities deepens, with the U.S. and Iran consistently on opposite sides. For Iranians, the re-escalation of regional violence, coupled with Trump’s return, points to a possible return of the turbulent and punitive years under his first administration.
Iranian leaders have signaled little optimism about Trump’s presidency leading to an improved relationship with the United States. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that the U.S. election results were of limited relevance to Iran, reinforcing the notion that hostility from Washington transcends party lines. “Iran’s relations (with the U.S.) will be the same (with Trump) as with Democrats,” commented Reza Aram, a 51-year-old insurance agent in Tehran, reflecting a common sentiment among Iranians who see consistent animosity from Washington regardless of political party.
Masoud Pezeshkian, who assumed the Iranian presidency in July, has made efforts to rekindle diplomacy, including attempts to revive the nuclear deal, yet such overtures may now face stiffer resistance. With Trump in office, indirect nuclear negotiations between Tehran and Washington have already stalled, with Araghchi citing “regional tensions” as a significant impediment to dialogue.
Ordinary Iranians are feeling the sting of these broader geopolitical shifts in their daily lives. Following the 2018 sanctions, the Iranian economy experienced severe contraction, and ordinary citizens struggled under inflation that reached double-digit percentages. The rial’s depreciation also meant higher costs for imports, leaving many households struggling to afford basic goods. Today, public anxieties are focused on the likelihood of renewed U.S. sanctions, and the potential for deeper economic strife looms large.
“I’m worried right now about the situation of the country and its economy,” said Zahra Eghbali, a 56-year-old resident of Tehran. “People are under pressure.” Her concerns reflect widespread public fears that Trump’s renewed leadership will once again devastate Iran’s economy and worsen the quality of life for millions of Iranians. Eghbali added, “Both sides should come to an agreement that is to the benefit of the people,” a sentiment shared by many Iranians who feel caught in the crossfire of international politics.
In its coverage of the U.S. elections, Iranian media have portrayed Trump and his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, as equally adverse to Iranian interests. The front page of Jam-e Jam featured images of both American leaders overshadowed by demonic figures, implying that Iran expects little improvement in relations, no matter who holds office. For many Iranians, Trump and Harris both represent a continuation of what they see as an antagonistic U.S. stance towards Iran, rooted in historical mistrust and ideological opposition.
With Trump poised to reassert his foreign policy stance, Iranian officials face the challenging task of navigating an increasingly hostile geopolitical landscape. President Pezeshkian’s efforts to shore up ties with the West and stabilize the economy now face a steeper uphill battle. For his part, Supreme Leader Khamenei remains wary of U.S. intentions, a position fortified by Trump’s legacy in Iran and the recent Middle East escalations.
The two countries’ relationship, severed since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, remains mired in distrust. The looming question for Iran’s leadership is whether they can manage domestic stability in the face of expected sanctions and diplomatic isolation.
