As Republican Donald Trump declared victory in the U.S. presidential election, defeating Democrat Kamala Harris, China braces for another four years marked by intense superpower rivalry. The Chinese government and policy strategists expect that trade, technology, and security tensions with Washington will intensify, while Beijing considers opportunities to fill potential global leadership gaps created by Trump’s isolationist policies.
Trump’s strong showing across wide swathes of the United States demonstrated a broader base of support than he had in his previous victory, marking a shift that carries significant implications for the world’s second-largest economy. According to data from early voting counts, Trump managed to increase his share of the vote in several regions, suggesting that his “America First” doctrine has resonated deeply with voters in traditionally key battleground states.
Chinese strategists and analysts suggest that Trump’s re-election could bring heightened challenges but may also open avenues for China to expand its global influence, especially in regions where U.S. leadership might recede under Trump’s often isolationist foreign policy approach.
“Beijing anticipated a close race in the U.S. election,” commented Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Although Trump’s victory is not China’s preferred outcome and raises concerns, it is not entirely unexpected. The Chinese leadership will likely strive to maintain an appearance of a cordial relationship with Trump while intensifying efforts to project China’s power and strength.”
According to Zhao, Beijing is now looking to reinforce its relationships not only in Asia but across emerging markets and the Global South, countries that may welcome an alternative to U.S. influence in the wake of potential American disengagement.
Da Wei, director of the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, echoed this sentiment, noting that Trump’s high unpredictability makes it difficult for Chinese policymakers to form a consistent response. “Due to Trump’s high unpredictability, I think it is difficult for China to say there is a fully formed plan to do ‘x’ when Trump comes to power,” Da said. “It also depends on what policies the Trump administration implements.”
Over the last four years, U.S.-China relations have increasingly soured, with Trump’s administration implementing tariffs, export controls, and sanctions targeting Chinese companies like Huawei and ZTE. With Trump’s re-election, Chinese industry leaders and government officials anticipate that these policies may persist and, in some cases, even intensify.
During his first term, Trump imposed tariffs on approximately $370 billion worth of Chinese goods. Economists predict that Trump, having campaigned on an anti-China platform and in favor of “decoupling” the two economies, will likely introduce further measures targeting China’s tech sector, in particular, as well as its manufacturing power.
Liu Ming, a research fellow at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, said, “It’s clear that Trump sees China as a primary rival, particularly in technology. His policies suggest that he will continue to target China’s tech sector, posing a significant obstacle for Chinese tech companies seeking to access U.S. markets and resources.”
Facing another four years of economic confrontation, China is expected to accelerate its diplomatic outreach to allies in Asia, Europe, and the developing world. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently met in an attempt to ease border tensions, reflecting Beijing’s broader strategy of securing allies in the region. Similarly, China has made efforts to engage with Japan’s new administration, signaling a willingness to stabilize relations after years of strain.
“China expects the second Trump administration to further disengage from international agreements and commitments, creating opportunities for China to expand its influence in emerging power vacuums,” Tong Zhao noted.
Beijing’s regional focus includes strategic partnerships in Southeast Asia through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), as well as strengthening ties with the European Union, which has expressed concern over unilateral U.S. foreign policies. Chinese foreign policy expert Wong Nian noted that Beijing is likely to continue seeking stronger ties with Europe, the Global South, and Northeast Asia, given Trump’s “transactional, isolationist, anti-globalist, and anti-multilateral foreign policy.”
One area where tensions could heighten significantly is Taiwan. Trump has previously expressed controversial views on Taiwan, suggesting that it should compensate Washington for its military assistance. This rhetoric has caused unease among officials in Taipei, who rely heavily on U.S. support to maintain their independence from Beijing.
“The Biden administration applied high-pressure tactics to China on Taiwan, with U.S. troops stationed in Taiwan and even giving weapons to Taiwan, which was a break with the former Trump administration’s Taiwan policy,” said Shen Dingli, an international relations scholar in Shanghai. Washington’s recent approval of a $2 billion arms sale to Taiwan exemplifies the ongoing support for Taipei’s defense, but some analysts suggest that Trump may be less inclined to provide the same level of support in his new term.
The Chinese government, which considers Taiwan a renegade province, views U.S. involvement in Taiwan’s defense as a serious threat to its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Shen Dingli added, “Trump is not too likely to give Taiwan the same support in the future,” indicating that Trump’s transactional approach may lead him to reassess the value of backing Taiwan against the significant cost of deteriorating Sino-U.S. relations further.
The technology sector is poised to be a continued battleground in the economic skirmish between China and the United States. Analysts anticipate further sanctions on Chinese tech companies, possibly extending to more firms beyond Huawei and ZTE. Trump’s first term saw Washington blocking Chinese access to key American tech resources, including microchips and software critical to 5G development.
Given these challenges, Chinese tech companies have been forced to accelerate their domestic production capabilities and reduce dependency on U.S. imports. Major Chinese firms, such as semiconductor manufacturer SMIC, have invested heavily in domestic innovation to meet growing technological needs amid U.S. restrictions.
However, these companies still face significant hurdles in developing alternatives to sophisticated U.S. technologies, such as advanced semiconductors. The implications for China’s technology sector are vast, as continued U.S. sanctions could slow down China’s advancements in artificial intelligence, 5G, and other emerging technologies crucial to its long-term economic ambitions.
While Trump’s re-election introduces additional hurdles for Chinese trade and technology, Beijing views some aspects of his foreign policy as potentially beneficial. Trump’s lack of interest in multilateral alliances could open opportunities for China to enhance its diplomatic and economic influence across international institutions.
China’s recent moves to increase involvement in the United Nations, World Health Organization, and other multilateral bodies suggest a strategy aimed at occupying the leadership space that the United States may vacate. Furthermore, Beijing is promoting the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a free trade agreement spanning 15 Asia-Pacific countries, which China hopes will counterbalance the U.S. influence in the region.
If Trump’s second term leads to a reduced U.S. presence on the world stage, it could afford China the chance to advocate for its own vision of global governance, one that emphasizes sovereignty and non-interference. These principles resonate with several developing nations wary of U.S. interventionism.
While official reactions from Beijing have remained measured, public sentiment in China reflects a degree of weariness with the ongoing tensions with Washington. The Chinese media has extensively covered Trump’s victory, with some outlets suggesting that the election underscores America’s internal divisions and domestic challenges.
On social media platforms, Chinese citizens have expressed mixed reactions, with some speculating that Trump’s isolationist tendencies may ultimately benefit China by weakening U.S. alliances and global standing. Others, however, express concerns that heightened U.S. pressure may lead to economic difficulties, particularly for Chinese businesses that rely on American markets.
