Tunisia, once celebrated as a beacon of democracy in the Arab world, now faces a pivotal moment as President Kais Saied seeks re-election. This Sunday, the North African nation will head to the polls, but the outcome appears all but certain: Saied, seen by his supporters as a savior and by his critics as an emerging autocrat, is expected to secure a decisive victory in what some are calling a “referendum on Kais Saied.”
Despite a dozen hopeful politicians vying to contest him, Tunisia’s electoral commission approved only two additional candidates for the ballot: Ayachi Zammel and Zouhair Maghzaoui. However, the political landscape is heavily skewed in Saied’s favor, raising concerns about the fairness of the election and the broader health of Tunisia’s democracy.
Tunisia was once the shining success story of the Arab Spring. The country ignited the 2010-2011 wave of uprisings across North Africa and the Middle East, where citizens rebelled against autocratic rulers. The popular protests forced Tunisia’s longtime leader Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali from power after more than two decades of rule. For many, Tunisia represented the possibility of a thriving democracy in a region long dominated by strongmen.
However, in the years since, Tunisia’s democratic experiment has faltered. Saied, who swept into power on a wave of optimism in 2019, has dramatically reshaped the country’s political landscape. After suspending parliament, rewriting the constitution, and concentrating power in his own hands, Saied’s critics accuse him of dismantling the very institutions of democracy that Tunisia fought so hard to establish. This Sunday’s vote, the third since the ousting of Ben Ali, may well be the final nail in the coffin for the democratic gains of the past decade.
A former law professor with little prior political experience, Saied was seen as a fresh face during his 2019 campaign. His image as “the professor” and his rhetoric of anti-corruption and economic renewal resonated with a populace fed up with Tunisia’s stagnant political class. Promising “a new Tunisia,” Saied secured more than 70% of the vote, enjoying broad support, especially among younger Tunisians frustrated by the economic challenges and political gridlock plaguing the country.
However, that support has eroded significantly over the past few years. In 2021, Saied dismissed parliament and began ruling by decree, a move widely regarded as a “self-coup.” His justification: Tunisia’s broken political system needed a strong leader to resolve the ongoing economic and political crises. Saied’s critics, however, view his actions as an assault on the democratic values Tunisia had painstakingly built since the Arab Spring.
Sarah Yerkes, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, argues that Saied has “manipulated the political and legal situation to such an extent that there is no contest – he is the only viable candidate.” Indeed, the election is widely seen as a referendum on his leadership, with nearly all campaign posters in the streets featuring Saied’s face and minimal electoral competition allowed. There have been no campaign rallies or public debates, creating a sense of inevitability around the outcome.
The electoral process itself has drawn intense scrutiny. Of the more than a dozen politicians who had hoped to challenge Saied, only two—Ayachi Zammel and Zouhair Maghzaoui—were approved by the electoral commission. Zammel’s candidacy, however, has been overshadowed by a 12-year prison sentence handed down just five days before the election for allegedly falsifying documents. Despite the conviction, Zammel’s name will still appear on the ballot, though the shadow of legal troubles hangs over his campaign. He denies the charges, calling them politically motivated.
Maghzaoui, a former lawmaker, was once a supporter of Saied’s 2021 power grab but later became a critic. Still, he stands little chance against the incumbent, whose grip on power has become near absolute.
Tunisia’s largest opposition party, Ennahda, has also been under heavy pressure from Saied’s government. Its senior members have been arrested at an unprecedented rate, a tactic critics say is part of a broader effort to stifle political dissent. The New York-based Human Rights Watch reported that authorities have excluded eight prospective candidates through prosecution and imprisonment, further narrowing the field and raising questions about the integrity of the electoral process.
In the weeks leading up to the election, protests erupted in the capital, Tunis, with demonstrators calling for free and fair elections. But the atmosphere remains tense, as many opposition voices have been silenced. Agnès Callamard, the secretary-general of Amnesty International, expressed concern over the pre-election crackdown, stating that Tunisian authorities are “waging a clear pre-election assault on the pillars of human rights.”
Saied’s leadership has steadily eroded Tunisia’s once-promising democratic trajectory. Under his rule, the country has plummeted in global democracy rankings, falling from 53rd place to 82nd on the Economist Intelligence Unit’s democracy index. “He has already returned Tunisia to autocracy,” said Yerkes.
Tunisia’s economic struggles have only exacerbated the political turmoil. Unemployment hovers around 16%, and inflation remains high, leaving many Tunisians disillusioned and desperate. In recent years, thousands of young people have left the country in search of better opportunities, often attempting the perilous journey across the Mediterranean to Europe.
Tunisia has become a key departure point for migrants hoping to reach Europe, particularly Italy. UN figures indicate that at least 12,000 migrants who arrived in Italy last year had departed from Tunisia. This surge in migration has put Tunisia at the center of the European Union’s efforts to stem the flow of migrants, leading to a controversial deal in which the EU pledged $118 million to Tunisia in exchange for stricter border controls and efforts to curb human smuggling.
Saied’s populist rhetoric has, at times, fueled xenophobic sentiments. Earlier this year, he accused black sub-Saharan migrants of partaking in a “plot” to alter Tunisia’s demographic profile, blaming “traitors who are working for foreign countries” for the supposed conspiracy. His comments sparked a wave of racist attacks against black people living in Tunisia and drew condemnation from human rights groups.
While these remarks have bolstered his support among some segments of the population, they have also triggered protests from those opposed to his inflammatory rhetoric. Anti-racist demonstrations have taken place across the country in response to Saied’s statements, highlighting the deep divisions within Tunisian society.
As the election approaches, Saied has focused his campaign on promises of improving public services. In his first official electoral statement, he vowed to strengthen health care, transportation, and social security systems, which he claims have been undermined by decades of neglect. However, his detractors argue that his track record suggests otherwise. Despite consolidating power, Saied has been unable to turn around the economy, leaving many Tunisians skeptical of his ability to deliver on his promises.
One of Saied’s central goals remains the empowerment of Tunisia’s marginalized communities. He claims to champion the cause of ordinary Tunisians, particularly those who have long felt excluded from the political process. But for many, these promises ring hollow in light of the country’s worsening economic conditions and the government’s increasingly authoritarian tactics.
Perhaps one of the clearest indicators of the country’s disillusionment is the widespread apathy surrounding the election. Last year, voter turnout for parliamentary elections was a dismal 11%, and experts predict similarly low participation this time around. With Saied’s victory all but guaranteed, many Tunisians see little point in casting their vote.
“The turnout this time around will likely be similarly abysmal,” said Yerkes. For many, the sense of hope that accompanied Saied’s rise to power in 2019 has faded, replaced by frustration and cynicism.
As Tunisians head to the polls on Sunday, the result of the presidential election seems certain: Kais Saied will almost certainly secure another term. But what remains uncertain is Tunisia’s future. Once the Arab Spring’s brightest hope for democratic reform, Tunisia now finds itself at a crossroads. Under Saied’s increasingly autocratic rule, the country’s democratic institutions have been hollowed out, and the economy remains in dire straits.
For Saied’s supporters, he remains a leader capable of delivering on the promises of 2019—a figure who can restore Tunisia’s dignity and address the deep-seated issues plaguing the country. For his critics, however, he is an autocrat in the making, whose reign threatens to undo a decade of hard-fought progress.
As the election results are announced in the coming days, the future of Tunisia will hinge on whether Saied can deliver on his promises—or whether his rule will mark the final chapter in Tunisia’s experiment with democracy.
