Since the turn of the century, relations between China and Japan have been embroiled in periods of tension, driven by territorial disputes, historical grievances, ideological differences, and shifting geopolitical landscapes. This fragile relationship has been further strained by complex narratives within both societies, from anti-Japanese television dramas in China to the simmering nationalist sentiment that feeds off historical wounds.
Despite these tensions, there have been official efforts to mend ties. One significant attempt came during the leadership of Shinzo Abe, who first proposed a “strategic mutually beneficial relationship” between the two nations. Yasuo Fukuda’s government later formalized this approach, marking a notable moment of diplomatic optimism.
While high-level diplomacy has remained active over the years, with recent meetings between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida reaffirming commitment to better relations, the underlying issues continue to cast a shadow over progress. Meanwhile, grassroots sentiment in both countries—especially in China—has shown signs of intensifying anti-Japanese rhetoric and actions, undermining official attempts to foster stability.
Geopolitical and Economic Entanglements
Geopolitically, Japan and China have experienced deep-seated conflicts, particularly over the East China Sea, where disputes regarding the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands have stoked nationalist fervor on both sides. The maritime and territorial disputes, combined with historical issues such as Japan’s wartime aggression in the 20th century, have created a cauldron of resentment that neither side has been able to fully extinguish. While the countries’ leaders have engaged in talks to ease tensions, public perception remains a considerable barrier.
Economically, however, the two nations remain deeply interdependent. Japan, despite aligning itself with U.S. sanctions on China’s high-tech industries, continues to maintain a robust trade relationship with its neighbor. Japanese exports to China have not only sustained a JPY 5 trillion trade surplus but also contributed to stabilizing the Chinese renminbi exchange rate. Although Japan is mindful of U.S.-led efforts to contain China, particularly in sensitive sectors like technology, it has carefully maneuvered to preserve its economic interests in the region. This pragmatic approach to trade contrasts sharply with Japan’s political alignment with the West, reflecting a balancing act that underscores the complexities of modern Sino-Japanese relations.
Cultural Exchange
On the softer side of diplomacy, cultural exchange between Japan and China has continued to flourish. In recent years, Japanese anime and manga have seen an extraordinary resurgence in popularity in China. Films such as Slam Dunk, Your Name, and Suzume have enjoyed widespread success, captivating Chinese audiences and providing a rare bridge of understanding between the two nations. Following the death of renowned manga artist Akira Toriyama, whose creation Dragon Ball left an indelible mark on global pop culture, Chinese fans expressed an outpouring of grief, signaling the deep emotional connection to Japanese cultural exports.
Nevertheless, while higher-level cultural exchanges have remained cordial, grassroots relations have deteriorated. Anti-Japanese sentiment has found its way into everyday incidents, stirring controversy and further damaging the already fragile relations. Several troubling incidents, including the arrest of a Chinese girl for wearing a kimono in Suzhou and acts of vandalism targeting Japanese symbols in China, reflect a widening rift at the popular level.
Radicalization of China’s Grassroots Population
The most alarming manifestation of anti-Japanese sentiment in China has been the radicalization of certain sections of the grassroots populace. This trend was starkly evident in the attack on a Japanese school in Shenzhen, resulting in the tragic death of a child. Despite efforts by Chinese authorities to label the attack as an “isolated incident,” it has raised serious concerns about the growing anti-Japanese animosity in China’s urban centers.
These actions often reflect the behavior of lower-level law enforcement units and grassroots citizens, whose radical sentiments are not always in line with the central government’s policies. This growing disconnect between official diplomacy and popular opinion is troubling. The grassroots populace, with lower levels of education and a susceptibility to influence, has become a key vector for anti-foreign and nationalist sentiment. According to recent studies, a significant proportion of China’s internet users have only a middle school education or less, indicating low levels of critical thinking and susceptibility to impulsive reactions. In this context, much of the anti-Japanese rhetoric is fueled by online narratives that tap into emotional and historical grievances.
With approximately 40.5% of Chinese internet users having only completed middle school, and just 18.8% having attended college or higher, the spread of parochial nationalist sentiment has found fertile ground among the lower-educated segments of the population. These individuals are highly vulnerable to manipulation through online platforms, where influencers and independent media outlets can stoke anti-Japanese sentiment by amplifying politically charged issues.
The Power of Online Radicalization
This grassroots radicalization follows a structured process, driven by influencers and media outlets that push narratives within politically acceptable boundaries. These issues quickly gain traction online, with mainstream media echoing the discourse, creating an unstoppable wave of public opinion that ultimately influences societal consensus. This consensus is then fed back to government authorities, often pressuring leadership to take more hardline stances than originally intended.
China’s online environment has evolved into a fertile breeding ground for radicalized nationalism, which can be easily directed toward foreign targets such as Japan. The Shenzhen school attack is only the latest in a series of incidents reflecting the impact of this online-driven radicalization. According to Kung Chan, this radicalism, currently aimed at foreigners, could easily shift inward, targeting domestic institutions or social groups if left unchecked.
The Shenzhen incident has proven to be a flashpoint for Sino-Japanese relations, with Japan expressing unprecedented outrage. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida condemned the attack in the strongest terms, calling it “an extremely despicable crime” and demanding that China ensure the safety of Japanese citizens within its borders. Such a severe response from Japan, a country known for its measured diplomatic language, signals the gravity of the situation.
Economic and Societal Fallout
While the diplomatic consequences of the attack are significant, the societal impact within Japan may be even more profound. Following the incident, several major Japanese corporations, including Panasonic and Toshiba, allowed their employees to temporarily return to Japan, essentially enacting a corporate-driven evacuation operation. Such actions underscore the deep concerns among Japanese civil society about the safety of its citizens in China. The emotional toll of these incidents on the Japanese public has eroded much of the goodwill built up through previous diplomatic efforts.
China, too, faces significant fallout from this incident. While its government expressed regret and sorrow, the damage to its international image, particularly in Japan and across the West, has been severe. The attack has reinforced global perceptions of China as a country where xenophobic violence can erupt uncontrollably, further complicating its diplomatic efforts to present itself as a stable and responsible global power.
A New Low for China-Japan Relations?
The damage caused by the Shenzhen attack goes beyond the immediate tragedy. It has the potential to set China-Japan relations on a new downward trajectory. Japan, once a cautious ally of the U.S. in its containment strategy against China, may now be pushed further into Washington’s orbit. Conservative forces in Japan, empowered by the surge in anti-Chinese sentiment, could strengthen their push for more aggressive policies toward China, not only in trade but also in security.
Furthermore, the implications of this shift extend beyond Japan. As a major player in Southeast Asia, Japan’s stance towards China could influence the policies of other nations in the region, many of which are carefully balancing relations between the two economic giants. Japan’s alignment with the U.S. could ripple across the region, leading to increased geopolitical competition.
At its core, the issue between China and Japan is not just one of geopolitics, but also of deeply ingrained social attitudes and online-driven radicalization. While high-level diplomacy between the two nations remains active, these efforts will likely be undermined unless China addresses the growing nationalist sentiment at the grassroots level. The current situation, where foreign relations are influenced by the whims of online radicals, poses a significant challenge for Chinese leadership.
If China is serious about maintaining stable and productive relations with Japan—and the wider world—it must act to bridge the gap between its official policies and the sentiments of its grassroots population. This requires not only tightening the reins on radical nationalism but also fostering more rational discourse within its internet-driven public sphere. Only by addressing these underlying social issues can China hope to prevent future incidents from derailing its diplomatic efforts and further damaging its international standing. The future of China-Japan relations may well depend on whether Beijing can steer its society away from radicalism and towards a more reasoned, constructive path.
