Ever since the ouster of Bashar al-Assad from Syria, analysts had predicted that Turkey and Iran’s interests would soon collide. That forecast now seems to be materializing as tensions rise between the two regional powers over Syria’s future.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an armed group led by Ahmed al-Shara, forced Assad to flee Syria, ending his nearly 24-year rule. The group, which has received Turkish backing, is now at the center of the country’s new power structure.
Syria, a Sunni-majority nation, had long been ruled by Assad, an Alawite, a sect within Shia Islam. With Iran’s backing, Assad maintained control for decades, positioning Syria as a crucial link in Tehran’s regional influence network. His removal, therefore, was seen as a geopolitical victory for Turkey and a major setback for Iran.
Iran’s presence in Syria was not just about ideological or religious affinity but also strategic control, ensuring a land corridor to Hezbollah in Lebanon and influence over Iraq. With Assad gone and a Sunni-led government emerging in Damascus, Tehran is now recalibrating its approach.
Turkey has also leveraged this shift to its advantage in its long-running conflict with Kurdish separatists. Just last month, Abdullah Öcalan, the jailed founding member of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), made a surprising appeal for his group to lay down arms after four decades of guerrilla warfare against Turkey.
“I am appealing to give up arms,” Öcalan said. “Accept this appeal and fulfill your historical responsibility. All groups should give up arms, and the PKK should now end as an organization.”
For Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, this was a significant win. The PKK has been a persistent thorn in Turkey’s side, and Öcalan’s statement, whether under duress or part of a larger political maneuver, bolsters Ankara’s position.
Kurds still control a large portion of northern Syria and remain influential in Iraq and Iran. The question now is how Turkey will use its strengthened hand to shape Syria’s future while keeping Iran at bay.
Tensions between Ankara and Tehran became more evident after Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan was asked by Qatar’s Al Jazeera TV on February 26 about a possible challenge from the Iran-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) against Syria’s new leader, Ahmed al-Shara.
Fidan’s response was sharp:
“This will not be right in any way. If you try to create instability in another country by supporting a particular group, then the same can happen in your country in return.”
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Ismail Baqai, quickly condemned Fidan’s remarks, accusing Turkey of ignoring the role of the U.S. and Israel in the region’s instability. “It is a big mistake not to see the involvement of America and Israel in whatever is happening in this region,” Baqai said on February 28.
Iran’s media landscape also erupted with criticism. The conservative newspaper Jahan News accused Fidan of being delusional. Reformist newspaper Shargh Daily went further, alleging that Turkish-backed social media accounts were stirring separatist sentiments among Azeri ethnic groups in Iran.
In response, Turkey summoned Iran’s ambassador on March 4, escalating diplomatic tensions. Despite Ankara’s insistence that “foreign policy matters should not be mixed with domestic politics,” the situation remains fraught.
Meanwhile, violence in Syria is escalating. Between Thursday last week and Monday this week, at least 1,500 people were killed, including 1,068 civilians—mostly Alawites. The attackers are reportedly pro-government militias seeking revenge for Assad’s ouster.
International editor Stanley Johnny of The Hindu analyzed the situation:
“Syria is a country with a diverse society. It is a Muslim-majority country, but there has never been unity. Syria gained independence from France in 1946 and has seen several coups since then. In 1970, Bashar al-Assad’s father, Hafez al-Assad, took power and successfully established political stability by creating an autocratic system that balanced various communities under a secular constitution.”
“Ahmed al-Shara has now dismantled this system and wants to build a new order rooted in Sunni Islam,” Johnny added.
Iran sees the violence against Alawites as evidence of the new Syrian government’s failure to maintain stability. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi blamed Turkey-backed forces for the chaos, saying, “The responsibility for this violence lies with those who changed the government in Syria.”
At the recent Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) meeting in Saudi Arabia, Araghchi warned Turkish officials that ongoing instability would only strengthen extremist groups and Israel.
Beyond regional geopolitics, Erdoğan’s moves are also driven by domestic politics. The agreement with Kurdish rebels could serve his long-term goal of consolidating power.
Soner Çağaptay, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute and author of multiple books on Erdoğan, wrote that the Turkish leader’s objective is to weaken the opposition, particularly the pro-Kurdish DEM Party and the Republican People’s Party (CHP).
Erdoğan has already rewritten the political rulebook once. When his term as prime minister was set to expire in 2017-18, he orchestrated a referendum to shift Turkey from a parliamentary system to a presidential one, allowing him to stay in power. Now, his presidency is approaching its term limit in 2028.
According to current Turkish law, Erdoğan cannot run again. However, Çağaptay suggests he might dissolve parliament early to trigger fresh elections, which could reset his term limit.
“In return, Erdoğan might restore Kurdish mayors who were removed in 2024 and grant some cultural rights to the Kurds,” Çağaptay wrote. “If the conflict with the PKK ends, it will be historic, and Erdoğan will take full credit.”
With Syria’s power structure in flux, Turkey and Iran are maneuvering to secure their interests. While Ankara is pushing to eliminate Kurdish separatists and solidify its influence in Syria, Tehran is looking for ways to regain lost ground.
The SDF, which had relied on U.S. support, is also uncertain about its future. With former President Donald Trump hinting at withdrawing support for Kurdish groups, the SDF may soon turn to Iran as a new ally.
Meanwhile, the Alawite community remains vulnerable as the new Sunni-led government in Damascus consolidates power. The risk of sectarian violence looms large, and Iran is likely to use this as a justification for deeper involvement.
For Turkey, the ultimate goal is to shape post-Assad Syria in its favor while securing Erdoğan’s political future. But Iran, despite setbacks, will not retreat easily. With regional alliances shifting, the Middle East is bracing for another phase of turbulence.
