Turkey is moving closer to joining a nascent defense alliance between Saudi Arabia and nuclear-armed Pakistan, a step that could redraw security alignments across the Middle East, South Asia and parts of Africa, according to people familiar with the discussions.
The pact, originally signed by Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in September, commits the signatories to collective defense, declaring that any aggression against one member would be treated as an attack on all. The language closely resembles NATO’s Article 5 — a parallel that is not lost on Ankara, which fields the alliance’s second-largest military after the United States.
Sources say talks on Turkey’s inclusion are at an advanced stage and that an agreement is increasingly likely. They spoke on condition of anonymity because the negotiations are not public.
If finalized, Turkey’s entry would mark the emergence of a powerful trilateral security bloc that blends Saudi financial muscle, Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent and missile capabilities, and Turkey’s battle-hardened armed forces and fast-growing defense industry. Analysts say such a configuration could significantly enhance collective deterrence at a time of heightened regional volatility.
The rationale for expansion is rooted in converging strategic interests. Turkey’s security outlook now increasingly overlaps with those of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, not only in the Middle East but also in South Asia and Africa. Ankara is also looking for ways to hedge against uncertainty surrounding Washington’s long-term commitments, amid questions over the reliability of U.S. security guarantees and President Donald Trump’s stance toward NATO.
“Saudi Arabia brings capital, Pakistan brings nuclear capability, ballistic missiles and manpower, and Turkey contributes operational experience and a mature defense industry,” said Nihat Ali Özcan, a security strategist at the Ankara-based think tank TEPAV. “Together, they form a comprehensive deterrence package.”
Özcan added that shifting regional dynamics are pushing countries to rethink traditional alliances. “As the U.S. prioritizes its own interests and that of Israel, and as regional conflicts reshape threat perceptions, states are developing new mechanisms to define friends, foes and security guarantees,” he said.
Official responses have been muted. Turkey’s Defense Ministry declined to comment, while Pakistan’s Information Ministry did not respond to requests for comment. Saudi officials were not immediately available over the weekend.
For Ankara and Riyadh, the prospective deal would underscore a dramatic turnaround in relations after years of rivalry and mistrust, particularly following the 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. In recent years, the two powers — often seen as competing leaders of the Sunni Muslim world — have worked to normalize ties and deepen cooperation.
That thaw is now expanding into the defense realm. According to Turkey’s Defense Ministry, the two countries held their first-ever bilateral naval meeting in Ankara this week, a symbolic step toward closer military coordination.
Despite lingering differences, Turkey and Saudi Arabia share broad strategic concerns. Both are wary of Iran’s regional influence, though they favor engagement and diplomacy over direct confrontation. They also back the emergence of a stable, Sunni-led government in Syria and support Palestinian statehood, positions that align them politically even as they navigate complex regional fault lines.
Turkey’s relationship with Pakistan, meanwhile, is already deeply entrenched. The two countries have maintained close military and political ties for decades. Ankara is currently building corvette warships for the Pakistani Navy, has modernized dozens of Pakistan’s F-16 fighter jets, and shares drone technology with Islamabad. Turkey has also extended similar drone cooperation to Saudi Arabia.
More ambitiously, Ankara is seeking partners for its indigenous Kaan fifth-generation fighter jet program and has encouraged both Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to participate, according to earlier reports. Such collaboration would further intertwine their defense industries and strategic planning.
The timing of the trilateral talks is notable. They come shortly after a fragile ceasefire ended a four-day military confrontation between Pakistan and India in May, the most serious clash between the nuclear-armed rivals in years. While the truce has held, tensions remain high, and Islamabad is keen to reinforce its deterrence posture through broader strategic partnerships.
Pakistan is also facing renewed friction along its western frontier with Afghanistan. Islamabad has accused the Taliban authorities of harboring militant groups hostile to Pakistan, leading to a series of cross-border clashes. Turkey, along with Qatar, attempted to mediate talks between the two sides, but those efforts ended without a breakthrough.
For Turkey, participation in the Saudi-Pakistan pact would not replace NATO, but it would add another layer to its increasingly multi-vector foreign policy. Ankara has spent the past decade expanding its diplomatic and military footprint from Libya to the Caucasus and from the Horn of Africa to South Asia, often seeking flexible arrangements outside traditional Western frameworks.
Should the agreement be finalized, it would signal the rise of a new, non-Western security axis — one built less on shared ideology and more on pragmatic calculations of power, deterrence and strategic autonomy. While the full implications would unfold over time, analysts say the move alone would send a clear message: regional powers are no longer waiting on old alliances to guarantee their security.
