The recent statements by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressing his willingness to meet Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to normalize relations have ignited widespread discussions across the political landscape. From the corridors of Damascus to the halls of Washington and the opposition camps, the prospect of reconciliation between the two leaders is viewed through differing lenses. While some see it as a potential turning point, others remain skeptical of the true motives behind these overtures.
In particular, the Syrian opposition acknowledges the possibility of a meeting, despite significant hurdles, while Damascus perceives Erdogan’s statements as part of a larger Turkish political maneuver. Meanwhile, the United States has underscored that any normalization of relations between Turkey and Syria must align with the broader objective of achieving a political solution based on the principles outlined in United Nations Security Council Resolution 2254, which was passed in 2015.
Turkish-Syrian Relations
The relationship between Turkey and Syria has been fraught with tension and conflict, particularly since the onset of the Syrian civil war in 2011. Turkey, under Erdogan’s leadership, became a staunch supporter of the Syrian opposition, calling for Assad’s removal from power and backing various rebel factions. This resulted in the two countries severing diplomatic ties and a substantial increase in hostilities, with Turkey launching multiple military operations in northern Syria, targeting both the Assad regime and Kurdish groups.
Turkey’s involvement in Syria has been multifaceted, driven by both security concerns—particularly its opposition to Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria—and its desire to influence the outcome of the Syrian conflict. In recent years, however, with the Assad regime consolidating power and the opposition losing ground, Turkey’s strategy appears to be shifting toward reconciliation, albeit under specific conditions.
Erdogan’s Latest Offer: A Shift in Turkish Strategy?
Speaking at a public event, President Erdogan signaled his willingness to meet with Assad, marking a notable shift in tone from his earlier calls for the Syrian president’s ouster. While Erdogan stopped short of providing a concrete timeline for such a meeting, he indicated that Ankara was awaiting a formal response from Damascus regarding the possibility of talks aimed at normalizing relations between the two countries.
“We are open to dialogue with Syria, but certain steps must be taken. Our concerns, especially regarding the situation in northern Syria, must be addressed,” Erdogan stated.
For the Syrian opposition, which has long depended on Turkish support, the possibility of Erdogan meeting Assad presents a complex dilemma. On one hand, the opposition is acutely aware that its influence has waned, with the Syrian government now controlling the majority of the country’s territory. On the other hand, any normalization between Turkey and Syria could undermine their cause and leave them further marginalized.
Hadi al-Bahra, the head of the National Coalition of Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces, acknowledged in a recent statement that a meeting between Assad and Erdogan is indeed possible. He noted that while Ankara understands the limitations of the Assad regime, the Turkish government might be willing to explore the possibility of rapprochement if it aligns with their broader interests.
“A meeting is possible, but Turkey knows the regime’s limitations,” Bahra remarked in an interview with Reuters. “The UN-led political process is currently frozen, but there are ongoing discussions behind the scenes.”
Bahra’s comments reflect the opposition’s pragmatic view of the situation. The Syrian opposition has long called for a political solution to the conflict, and the stalling of the UN-led process, coupled with shifting geopolitical dynamics, may force them to reconsider their stance on Turkey’s potential engagement with the Assad government.
US Involvement: Firm Stance on Political Solution
While Turkey may be exploring the possibility of rapprochement with Damascus, the United States has made its position on the matter clear. A US administration official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, reiterated Washington’s opposition to the normalization of relations with the Assad regime unless there is meaningful progress toward a political solution that addresses the underlying causes of the conflict.
“We cannot accept the normalization of ties with Damascus without substantial steps toward resolving the Syrian conflict,” the official told Turkish media. “Any normalization efforts must align with the provisions of UN Security Council Resolution 2254.”
UNSCR 2254, passed in 2015, calls for a political transition in Syria through the establishment of a new constitution and free elections under UN supervision. The resolution has been the cornerstone of international efforts to resolve the conflict, although progress has been slow, and the political process remains stalled.
The US, along with its European allies, has maintained that any effort to rehabilitate the Assad regime must be contingent on the regime’s willingness to engage in a credible political process. This has led to friction with some regional actors, such as the United Arab Emirates, which has taken steps to normalize relations with Damascus in recent years, and now potentially Turkey.
Damascus’ Reaction: Erdogan’s Overture Dismissed as a Maneuver
From Damascus’ perspective, Erdogan’s outreach is viewed with suspicion. Bouthaina Shaaban, a special advisor to President Assad, dismissed Erdogan’s announcement as yet another political ploy by Ankara. Shaaban, speaking at an event hosted by the Omani Ministry of Foreign Affairs, emphasized that Syria would not consider normalizing relations with Turkey until Turkish forces are fully withdrawn from Syrian territory.
“Erdogan’s talk of normalization is a mere political maneuver,” Shaaban said. “We cannot even begin to talk about rapprochement until Turkey withdraws its occupation forces from Syria.”
This demand reflects a core sticking point in Turkish-Syrian relations: Turkey’s military presence in northern Syria, where it has established a buffer zone to protect its borders and counter the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), which Turkey considers a terrorist organization. Ankara’s military operations in Syria, particularly its occupation of parts of the north, remain a major obstacle to any potential reconciliation with Damascus.
Turkey’s recent overtures toward Assad must be viewed within the broader context of shifting regional alliances and the evolving dynamics of the Middle East. Over the past decade, the region has seen a number of major geopolitical realignments, driven in part by the Syrian conflict.
The emergence of the Astana peace process, spearheaded by Russia, Iran, and Turkey, reflects a significant departure from earlier diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict. While the process has had some limited success in reducing hostilities in certain areas, it has largely failed to produce a lasting political solution.
More recently, some Arab countries, particularly the UAE and Jordan, have begun to reengage with Assad, signaling a willingness to reintegrate Syria into the Arab fold. This trend, however, remains controversial, as many Arab nations, along with Western powers, continue to view Assad’s regime as illegitimate due to its role in the brutal suppression of the uprising and widespread human rights violations.
In this context, Erdogan’s willingness to explore a potential rapprochement with Assad could be seen as part of a broader recalibration of Turkey’s foreign policy. Faced with ongoing domestic challenges, including economic difficulties and the refugee crisis, Turkey may be seeking to reduce its involvement in Syria and focus on securing its own national interests.
As Erdogan’s remarks continue to spark debate, the future of Turkish-Syrian relations remains uncertain. While there are signs that Turkey may be open to some form of rapprochement, significant obstacles remain. The presence of Turkish forces in northern Syria, Ankara’s support for the Syrian opposition, and the broader geopolitical context all present formidable challenges to the normalization of relations.
For now, it appears that both Turkey and Syria are testing the waters, weighing their respective options as they navigate a complex and evolving landscape. Whether or not a meeting between Erdogan and Assad materializes, and whether it leads to meaningful progress in the Syrian conflict, remains to be seen. One thing is certain: the path to normalization will be anything but straightforward.
In the meantime, the international community, particularly the United States and European powers, will continue to push for a political solution based on UNSCR 2254. As the Syrian conflict enters its thirteenth year, the quest for peace and stability in the region remains as elusive as ever, and the stakes for all parties involved are as high as they have ever been.
