• Trump Administration’s Subtle Yet Symbolic Shift in Taiwan Policy Raises Geopolitical Stakes

In a move that could significantly alter the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific, the U.S. State Department has removed the phrase “We do not support Taiwan independence” from its routine briefings on Taiwan. The omission, first noticed in an update on February 13, 2025, has sent shockwaves through diplomatic circles, raising concerns in Beijing about Washington’s evolving position on the sensitive issue.

On the same day, the Trump administration further clarified its stance, stating that it advocates a “peaceful and coercion-free resolution to the Sino-Taiwan issue” while opposing “unilateral changes to the status quo from either side.” These seemingly minor adjustments in language may have major implications, particularly in how China perceives Washington’s commitment to Taiwan.

Beijing’s Growing Concerns Over U.S. Commitment to Taiwan

China, which views Taiwan as a breakaway province that must eventually be reunited with the mainland, has long opposed any indication that the U.S. might support Taiwanese independence. Although the U.S. does not officially recognize Taiwan as a sovereign nation, Washington has been its most crucial international supporter, supplying arms and military training while maintaining strong economic ties.

The disappearance of the “We do not support Taiwan independence” phrase, coupled with a more assertive U.S. stance on deterring coercion, suggests that the Trump administration may be less inclined to remain neutral if China attempts to take Taiwan by force. Beijing is likely to interpret this as a sign that Washington may provide stronger backing to Taiwan in the event of a military conflict.

China’s response to the shift has been swift and aggressive. In the past week alone, Beijing has sent multiple warplanes and naval vessels near the Taiwan Strait, demonstrating its resolve to defend what it considers its territorial sovereignty. The Chinese government has repeatedly warned that it “will not rule out the use of force” to achieve reunification, and any perception of increased U.S. support for Taiwan could further escalate tensions.

Trump’s Business-First Approach to Taiwan

Despite the increasingly confrontational rhetoric, the Trump administration’s motives may not be entirely centered on Taiwan’s sovereignty. Given former President Donald Trump’s well-documented transactional approach to foreign policy, some analysts believe that Washington’s revised statement serves a broader U.S. strategic and economic agenda rather than a principled commitment to Taiwan’s self-governance.

During his first term, Trump waged a fierce trade war against China, imposing tariffs of up to 25% on Chinese imports. His administration repeatedly accused Beijing of engaging in unfair trade practices, intellectual property theft, and currency manipulation. Now, in his second term, Trump has already announced a fresh 10% tariff on Chinese goods, with threats of further hikes.

By subtly shifting the U.S. position on Taiwan, Trump’s administration may be looking to use the issue as leverage in trade negotiations with Beijing. The message to China is clear: Washington is willing to pressure Beijing on Taiwan if it does not offer trade concessions, such as increasing its imports of American products or scaling back its subsidies to domestic industries.

The timing of this shift in U.S. policy is particularly problematic for Chinese President Xi Jinping, who faces mounting economic challenges at home. China’s real estate sector has been in crisis since 2021, with property giant Evergrande’s collapse symbolizing the deep structural issues within China’s economy. Economic growth has slowed, and youth unemployment has soared, forcing Beijing to rethink its development strategy.

For Xi, reunification with Taiwan is not just a geopolitical goal but a legacy-defining ambition. Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, every Chinese leader has upheld the vision of Taiwan eventually returning to Beijing’s control. If Xi were to succeed in this mission, he would cement his place in history as one of China’s greatest leaders.

However, if Washington’s updated stance makes a forced reunification more difficult or costly, Xi’s ability to deliver on this long-standing national objective could be undermined. This, in turn, could weaken his image domestically and lead to internal political challenges from rivals within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

The shifting U.S. position on Taiwan must be viewed within the broader context of U.S.-China relations, which have been characterized by economic competition, military tensions, and ideological rivalry. The Trump administration’s past trade war with China, which resulted in the phase one trade deal in January 2020, was a key moment in the economic battle between the two superpowers.

Now, with Trump back in office, his administration is once again using aggressive trade policies to counter China’s rise. The proposed 60% tariff on Chinese goods, which Trump floated during his 2024 campaign, would be devastating to China’s export-driven economy, particularly in high-tech industries such as electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar panels.

If China is forced to abandon its ambitions in Taiwan—at least temporarily—it may have to focus on repairing its economic stability. This could make Beijing more willing to negotiate trade terms with Washington, offering concessions that benefit U.S. manufacturers and exporters. In essence, Trump may be using Taiwan as a strategic bargaining chip in the ongoing economic competition with China.

The One-China Policy in Question?

Despite these developments, the U.S. continues to officially recognize the One-China policy, which acknowledges Beijing’s claim over Taiwan while maintaining unofficial relations with Taipei. However, Washington’s latest diplomatic maneuvers suggest that it is willing to interpret this policy more flexibly.

While the U.S. is not outright endorsing Taiwan’s independence, its increasing military cooperation and arms sales to the island suggest a more robust commitment to its defense. In 2023, the Biden administration approved a $1.1 billion arms sale to Taiwan, a trend that is expected to continue under Trump. If the U.S. deepens its security commitments to Taipei, it could be seen as a de facto shift toward greater recognition of Taiwan’s sovereignty.

This ambiguity may be intentional, allowing the U.S. to maintain strategic flexibility while keeping both China and Taiwan uncertain about Washington’s ultimate intentions. However, this approach also raises the risk of miscalculation, where either Beijing or Taipei could misinterpret U.S. signals, leading to an unintended escalation of the conflict.

The Taiwan issue is not just a bilateral matter between the U.S. and China—it has far-reaching global implications. A military conflict over Taiwan would disrupt global supply chains, particularly in the semiconductor industry, where Taiwan-based companies like TSMC are dominant players. Any disruption to Taiwan’s semiconductor production would send shockwaves through the global economy, affecting everything from consumer electronics to military technology.

Moreover, an armed conflict between the U.S. and China over Taiwan could draw in regional allies such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia, potentially leading to a broader Asia-Pacific conflict. The stakes are exceptionally high, and any misstep in diplomatic signaling could have catastrophic consequences.

As Washington and Beijing continue their strategic maneuvering, Taiwan remains caught in the middle of a superpower struggle. While the U.S. has subtly signaled stronger support for Taipei, it is important to recognize that Taiwan’s fate may ultimately be determined by broader U.S. interests rather than an unwavering commitment to its independence.

For Trump’s administration, the Taiwan issue presents an opportunity to gain leverage in trade negotiations, pressure China economically, and project American strength in the Asia-Pacific region. Meanwhile, for Xi, the challenge is to balance nationalist ambitions with the economic and political realities facing China.

In this high-stakes geopolitical chess game, Taiwan is more than just a flashpoint—it is a crucial piece on the board, with both Washington and Beijing calculating their next moves carefully. The question remains: How far is each side willing to go before the game turns into a real conflict?