The independence of Okinawa, Japan’s southernmost prefecture, has gained traction on social media platforms. These misleading videos, primarily aimed at Chinese-speaking audiences, have garnered millions of interactions—including likes, reposts, and shares—spreading false narratives about Okinawa’s sovereignty. According to a report by Nikkei Asia on October 3, this disinformation campaign is driven by a sophisticated network of accounts employing artificial intelligence (AI) to fabricate content designed to sway public opinion.
The issue has alarmed experts, who warn that this growing online campaign could have profound implications for regional security. Okinawa, home to several U.S. military bases, plays a pivotal role in Japan’s defense strategy and the broader geopolitical balance in East Asia. As tensions between the U.S. and China simmer, the manipulation of narratives concerning Okinawa’s independence could further complicate an already volatile situation.
Okinawa has long been a focal point in U.S.-Japan relations due to its strategic location. Nestled between mainland Japan, Taiwan, and China, the prefecture is situated at a geopolitical crossroads in the Western Pacific. This proximity grants the U.S. military a critical forward presence in the region, enabling rapid response capabilities in case of a conflict involving China, Taiwan, or the Korean Peninsula. The islands are home to over 70% of U.S. military facilities in Japan, despite making up less than 1% of the country’s total land area.
The U.S. military’s presence in Okinawa traces its origins to the final stages of World War II. American forces captured the island in 1945, and it remained under U.S. control until 1972 when the territory was formally returned to Japan. However, the continued presence of U.S. military installations has been a source of friction between Okinawan residents and both the U.S. and Japanese governments.
Local opposition to U.S. bases has been persistent, fueled by grievances over noise pollution, environmental degradation, and incidents of violence involving U.S. personnel. The latest wave of disinformation, which advocates for Okinawa’s independence, taps into these long-standing frustrations and leverages them for geopolitical gain.
The emergence of misleading videos advocating Okinawa’s independence is concerning for multiple reasons. At its core, this campaign seeks to destabilize Japan’s sovereignty over Okinawa by reviving historical claims tied to the former Ryukyu Kingdom. The Ryukyu Kingdom, which existed from the 15th to the 19th century, was a sovereign entity that maintained diplomatic and trade relationships with both Japan and China. It was formally annexed by Japan in 1879 and renamed Okinawa Prefecture.
The misleading social media posts and videos exploit this historical context, falsely claiming that Okinawa should be re-designated as “Ryukyu” and asserting that the region rightfully belongs to China. Phrases like “Ryukyu belongs to China, not Japan!” and “According to the Potsdam Declaration, Ryukyu is Chinese territory!” have surfaced in Chinese subtitles across platforms like X (formerly Twitter), Facebook, and Weibo.
The Nikkei report suggests that this disinformation effort began to gain momentum following comments made by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2023, which underscored China’s historical ties to the Ryukyu Kingdom. These remarks were seen by some as laying the groundwork for a renewed propaganda push to assert Chinese claims over the region.
A deeper investigation into this campaign reveals a coordinated effort to manipulate public sentiment using AI-generated content. The report identifies at least three key accounts on X that have consistently spread pro-China messages about Okinawa’s independence. These accounts posted videos at staggered intervals in mid-May, coinciding with the anniversary of Okinawa’s reversion to Japan from U.S. control.
The videos purport to show mass protests in support of Okinawan independence, but upon closer scrutiny, they were found to be doctored. Investigators noted discrepancies in the background scenery, signage, and banners, indicating that the footage was a montage of unrelated protests, including anti-U.S. base demonstrations in Tokyo and Osaka. Additionally, the audio in one video, featuring chants of “Ryukyu belongs to China,” was revealed to be spliced from a pro-Beijing rally held in Taiwan in April 2023.
Despite these fabrications, the videos have reached an audience of millions. According to data from the Israeli analytics firm Cyabra, 431 accounts were involved in amplifying the content, with 75% of these accounts identified as “inauthentic.” This figure is unusually high, given that typical rates of inauthentic accounts are between 7-10%. The sheer scale of this coordinated effort suggests a deliberate attempt to exploit AI tools to mass-produce and distribute misleading content.
The growing prevalence of AI-driven disinformation campaigns targeting Okinawa raises questions about the broader geopolitical landscape. As tensions between the U.S. and China intensify, the stakes for control over key strategic regions like Okinawa have never been higher.
Okinawa’s location is crucial in any potential conflict between the U.S. and China, particularly over Taiwan. The prefecture’s U.S. bases would serve as launch points for air and naval operations in the event of a military confrontation. Furthermore, Okinawa-based forces could support U.S. operations in the Philippines, the South China Sea, and other regional hotspots.
Given this, it is not surprising that Chinese interests would seek to undermine U.S. military presence in Okinawa through disinformation. By fueling local protests and exacerbating historical grievances, these campaigns aim to create public pressure to either shut down or relocate U.S. bases. Should these efforts succeed, it could weaken the U.S. strategic position in the region and tilt the balance of power in China’s favor.
Okinawa has long been a hotbed of local resistance to U.S. military presence. Protests against U.S. bases are frequent, with activists citing noise pollution, environmental degradation, and violent incidents involving U.S. personnel as key concerns. The discontent is exacerbated by the disproportionate burden Okinawa bears compared to the rest of Japan. Despite accounting for less than 1% of Japan’s land area, the prefecture hosts over 70% of U.S. military facilities in the country.
The emergence of misleading videos advocating Okinawan independence feeds into these existing grievances. While there is no significant movement for full independence in Okinawa, the disinformation campaign could stoke resentment among local residents and further strain relations between the U.S., Japan, and Okinawa’s local government.
Okinawa Governor Denny Tamaki has been a vocal critic of the U.S. military presence, advocating for the relocation of bases and greater autonomy for the prefecture. However, even he has stopped short of calling for full independence. The disinformation campaign risks distorting these legitimate concerns into calls for outright secession, a narrative that could serve China’s strategic interests.
Social media platforms have become central to the spread of disinformation, and the Okinawa independence narrative is no exception. The report by Nikkei highlights the role of platforms like X, Facebook, and Weibo in disseminating misleading content to millions of users. The use of AI to create and distribute fake videos has made it easier for disinformation campaigns to gain traction and manipulate public opinion.
While platforms have made efforts to combat disinformation, the sheer scale of the problem is daunting. AI-generated content can be produced and distributed rapidly, making it difficult for human moderators to keep up. In the case of the Okinawa independence narrative, the disinformation campaign was able to generate millions of engagements before it was flagged as misleading.
The disinformation campaign advocating Okinawa’s independence represents a serious threat to Japan’s national security and the broader geopolitical balance in East Asia. By exploiting historical grievances and using AI to manipulate public sentiment, the campaign seeks to undermine U.S. military presence in the region and weaken Japan’s control over Okinawa.
As tensions between the U.S. and China continue to rise, Okinawa’s strategic importance will only grow. The disinformation campaign is a stark reminder that the battle for influence in the region is not only being fought with military assets but also through information warfare. The international community must remain vigilant in the face of these challenges, as the consequences of unchecked disinformation could be profound. Okinawa, once a symbol of U.S.-Japan cooperation, now finds itself at the center of a complex geopolitical struggle, where truth and propaganda collide in a battle for control over the narrative.
