The United States has proposed using Japanese factories to increase the manufacturing of Patriot air defense missiles. According to two Japanese government officials and two industry sources, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI), a Japanese manufacturer, is currently producing approximately 30 PAC-3 missiles annually under license from defense contractor Lockheed Martin. MHI has the capacity to produce up to 60 missiles per year. The United States aims to quickly increase production from around 500 units per year to more than 750 units per year globally, including in Japan. However, expanding production in Japan would require additional supplies of the missile seekers that guide the missiles in their final seconds of flight, according to government and business insiders.
An industry source told Reuters, “It could take several years before MHI can raise output,” citing the shortfall in missile seekers as the primary obstacle. The seeker shortage is not expected to be resolved in the short term. To address the issue, Boeing began constructing new lines at its seeker facility in the U.S. last year, but these lines are not expected to become operational until 2027. Meanwhile, Lockheed Martin plans to increase the number of Patriot interceptors it produces in the United States from 500 to 650 by 2027. Currently, each missile costs around $4 million, with production increasing by approximately 100 missiles per year.
Challenges in Japan
Even if the missile seekers were readily available, MHI would still need to increase its production capacity to exceed 60 PAC-3 missiles per year. The Japanese government announced in 2022 that it would increase defense spending and provide financial support to defense industries aiming to boost production. However, these incentives only apply to weaponry meant for Japan’s Self Defense Forces and not for exports. This manufacturing bottleneck in Japan highlights the difficulties Washington faces in aligning the industrial support of its international partners with its intricate supply chains. Despite the assistance from close allies, the U.S. struggles to meet Ukraine’s demand for arms, especially air defense systems needed to counter Russian attacks, due to these supply chain issues.
U.S. Expansion Plans
Japan’s inability to increase missile output could undermine Washington’s broader plans for expansion, given the rising global demand for Patriot missile defense systems and the increasing need for PAC interceptors in Ukraine. For example, the U.S. announced in April that it would supply Patriot air defense missile systems to Ukraine as part of a $6 billion additional military aid package. It was also decided earlier this month that the United States, Germany, and Romania would send more Patriot batteries to Ukraine, and that the Netherlands and other countries would send additional Patriot components to complete one more battery. Ukraine’s demand for sophisticated Patriot batteries and munitions has surged in response to escalating Russian air strikes.
Russia’s Intensified Attacks
Russia has intensified missile and drone strikes against Kyiv, targeting power infrastructure to weaken the country’s war-fighting capability. Amid rising demand, it was previously believed that Japan would bolster American firepower to assist Ukraine indirectly. This expectation led to fierce warnings from the Kremlin, raising concerns that Tokyo might eventually withdraw. Interestingly, Japan’s inability to increase its involvement in Patriot production has been impeded by a key U.S. contractor rather than pressure from Moscow.
Following a modification to its arms export regulations, Japan announced in December last year that it would hand over its Patriot air defense missiles to the United States. Analysts suggested these missiles would then be redirected to Ukraine. Previously, Tokyo restricted the export of licensed equipment and parts to the country holding the manufacturing license. However, the new regulations now allow Japan to ship completed goods. It is anticipated that Japan’s ban on military exports will be eased, facilitating the U.S. and other European nations to arm Ukraine more effectively. The U.S. and Japan have been exploring ways to enhance support for Ukraine for almost a year. For example, in June last year, the Wall Street Journal reported that Japan was considering supplying 155 mm artillery shells to Ukraine under a 2016 pact.
Russia’s Warnings and Potential Consequences
Russia issued warnings to Japan amid concerns that Japanese Patriot missiles could end up in Ukraine. Russia’s Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary to Japan, Nikolay Stanislavovich Nozdrev, threatened Tokyo with severe consequences if Patriot missile systems manufactured in Japan under license from the United States were found in Ukraine. Nozdrev cautioned that since Tokyo eased export restrictions late last year, Moscow would closely monitor the destination of Japanese weapon transfers. He stated that Russia would be vigilant in ensuring that Patriot missile systems and missiles produced in Japan under license from the U.S. did not reach Ukraine via the United States.
“Accordingly, we will be observing to make sure that the Patriots delivered do not end up in Ukraine, because if that happens, there will be the most severe consequences for bilateral (Russia-Japan) relations, including our retaliatory steps,” RIA cited the ambassador as saying. Currently, no data is available regarding the potential transfer of Patriot missiles from Japan to the U.S. Given the scarcity of seekers, it is improbable that Japan will contribute to the increased production of Patriot interceptors in the near future.
The shortage of missile seekers is a critical bottleneck in the efforts to ramp up the production of Patriot air defense missiles, both in the United States and Japan. While the U.S. aims to significantly increase production to meet global demand and support Ukraine, the delays in seeker production and Japan’s current manufacturing limitations present significant challenges. The geopolitical implications are profound, as the inability to meet production goals affects the defense strategies and international relations of the involved nations. Despite policy changes and increased defense spending, the path to boosting missile production remains fraught with obstacles that require strategic resolution to align industrial capabilities with defense objectives.
