President Donald Trump is preparing to meet the leaders of Japan, India and Australia for the first time as a group, in a significant diplomatic gathering that comes amid growing tensions within the four-nation Quad alliance and concerns over Washington’s commitment to countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific.
The meeting, scheduled for Monday on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in the Philippines, will bring together the four leaders at a moment when the alliance is facing one of its most difficult periods since its revival in 2017.
The Quad, formally known as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, brings together the United States, Japan, India and Australia. Initially established in 2007, the grouping was revived a decade later to strengthen cooperation among major Indo-Pacific democracies in response to China’s expanding economic, diplomatic and military influence.
However, Trump’s second-term foreign policy, characterized by aggressive trade measures, unpredictable diplomacy and a more accommodating approach toward Beijing, has raised questions about the future direction of the partnership.
Diplomatic officials from the other three member countries are increasingly concerned that Washington is no longer providing the political leadership necessary to sustain the grouping.
“The Quad is on life support,” a Washington-based Asian diplomat said, speaking anonymously because of the sensitivity of the issue. “It’s not dead yet, but it needs strong leadership.”
A weakened Quad could benefit China, which has consistently criticized the grouping and described it as an attempt to contain Beijing’s regional ambitions. Chinese officials have previously portrayed the alliance as an emerging “Indo-Pacific NATO.”
Although the Quad initially concentrated on cooperation in areas such as climate change, public health, infrastructure development and disaster response, its agenda has increasingly expanded to include maritime security, military coordination and regional defense cooperation.
Joint naval and Coast Guard exercises have become an important part of the group’s activities, reflecting growing concerns about China’s military expansion and maritime assertiveness.
Retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, former director of operations at U.S. Pacific Command, said the grouping offered an important opportunity for the United States and its partners to coordinate their response to China’s growing influence.
“The Quad represents an opportunity to collectively confront the Chinese Communist Party, and it’s being missed,” Montgomery said. He argued that Trump’s treatment of the three other members had undermined efforts to bring India into closer cooperation against Chinese aggression beyond the Indian subcontinent.
The White House, however, rejected criticism of Trump’s approach, defending the administration’s record on regional cooperation.
“No administration has done more to advance Quad cooperation than the Trump administration,” White House spokesperson Olivia Wales said.
Trump’s current approach represents a significant departure from his first presidency, when he played an important role in reviving the Quad.
Although the grouping was established in 2007, it became largely inactive the following year because of internal disagreements and concerns among member countries about provoking China.
In 2017, the Trump administration helped restore the mechanism, recognizing the need for greater coordination among the four countries as Beijing expanded its regional economic and military presence.
However, Trump did not organize a leaders’ summit during his first term.
Former President Joe Biden subsequently elevated the grouping’s importance, making it a central component of his Indo-Pacific strategy. During his presidency, Biden participated in six Quad leaders’ meetings, including two virtual gatherings, and hosted the group’s last summit in Delaware in 2024.
In contrast, Trump’s second administration has largely delegated high-level engagement with the Quad to Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Former Australian defense liaison to the United States Arzan Tarapore said Trump had shown considerably less interest in investing in strategic partnerships than his predecessor.
“Trump doesn’t invest in these partnerships the way Biden did. And consistent with that is the fact that Trump saw no value in having a Quad summit until this month,” Tarapore said.
He added that the White House had not demonstrated the same pressure to advance the grouping’s agenda.
Trump’s broader skepticism toward multilateral institutions has also contributed to concerns among regional partners. During his second term, Washington has withdrawn from the World Health Organization and the United Nations climate convention, supported efforts to weaken the International Criminal Court and repeatedly questioned the United States’ commitment to NATO.
Although Trump has not publicly criticized the Quad, his limited direct involvement has raised questions about whether Washington considers the partnership a strategic priority.
Despite the lack of presidential engagement, diplomatic and technical cooperation among the four countries has continued.
Rubio has convened five meetings with Quad foreign ministers, while the State Department has pursued initiatives involving energy supply chains, port infrastructure and regional surveillance capabilities.
The initiatives include efforts to upgrade port facilities in Fiji, strengthen energy security and improve information-sharing among the four countries.
Rubio said last month that these discussions had helped transform the Quad from a forum for discussing regional challenges into a mechanism for identifying practical areas of cooperation.
However, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Nisha Biswal said the grouping’s overall ambition had declined.
“Despite the efforts of Secretary Rubio, ambition has gone way down in the Quad,” Biswal said.
She added that member countries wanted to preserve the mechanism for potential future cooperation but were reluctant to invest substantial political resources in an organization that currently lacked strong leadership at the highest level.
Former CIA China analyst Jonathan Czin, now associated with the Brookings Institution, said presidential involvement was essential if the Quad was to develop beyond a diplomatic discussion forum.
“If you want the Quad to be more than a talk shop, you need that signal from the boss,” Czin said.
He warned that Beijing could interpret the absence of U.S. participation at the head-of-state level as evidence that Washington was stepping back from the partnership.
Trade disputes have become another major source of friction between Washington and its three Indo-Pacific partners.
India’s relationship with the Trump administration deteriorated after a proposed trade agreement collapsed in 2025, resulting in tariffs of up to 50 percent on Indian goods.
The tariffs disrupted economic relations and contributed to the cancellation of a planned Quad leaders’ summit in New Delhi that year. U.S. tariffs on most Indian imports were subsequently reduced to 18 percent in February.
Japan has also faced significant pressure from Washington. Trump required Tokyo to commit $550 billion in investment in the United States as part of an arrangement for lower tariffs on automobiles and other Japanese products. The investment commitment represents more than 10 percent of Japan’s 2024 gross domestic product.
Australia, meanwhile, has faced U.S. tariffs of 12.5 percent, despite previously enjoying largely tariff-free access to the American market under the bilateral free trade agreement.
Jane Hardy, a former head of the Australian Embassy’s congressional office in Washington, said Trump’s trade measures had seriously damaged confidence among the United States’ closest regional partners.
“The tariff and trade salvos by President Trump and his lieutenants have been very difficult to stomach,” Hardy said.
Beyond trade, Trump’s criticism of Australia and his muted response to China’s economic pressure on Japan have further complicated relations.
Trump has repeatedly criticized Canberra for declining to send naval forces to support U.S. operations aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
He also publicly embarrassed former Australian Ambassador to the United States Kevin Rudd during an Oval Office meeting last year. Rudd was subsequently removed from his diplomatic position in January.
Japan, meanwhile, has been dealing with an increasingly confrontational economic relationship with China.
Beijing’s targeted economic measures have affected Japan’s tourism sector, restricted rare-earth exports and placed dozens of Japanese companies under Chinese export-control scrutiny.
Tokyo has been particularly concerned about the economic and strategic consequences of China’s restrictions on critical minerals, which are essential for advanced manufacturing, electronics and defense industries.
However, Trump has largely avoided publicly confronting Beijing over its economic pressure campaign against Japan.
A Washington-based Asian diplomat said the lack of American support had weakened confidence in the Quad.
“Trump has undermined the Quad through a lack of support for Japan in pushing back against that pressure,” the diplomat said.
Nicholas Burns, a former U.S. ambassador to China, described Washington’s silence as a serious diplomatic mistake.
“If we can’t stand up vocally for the prime minister of Japan and her government, then we’re weakening that alliance, and we’re just giving an advantage to the Chinese, who are watching what we’re saying and doing,” Burns said.
Criticism has also emerged in the U.S. Congress. Representative Ami Bera, a Democrat from California who is expected to chair the House subcommittee on East Asia and the Pacific in the next Congress, said he shared concerns about the administration’s limited engagement with the Quad.
Growing uncertainty about American leadership is encouraging Japan, India and Australia to strengthen their own bilateral and regional security arrangements.
While none of the three countries has indicated an intention to exclude the United States from the Quad, they are increasingly exploring ways to cooperate independently.
In September, India and Japan conducted annual joint military exercises that included the first deployment of Japanese fighter jets into Indian airspace since World War II.
Japan and Australia also signed an agreement in August allowing Japan to test hypersonic missiles in Australia.
A week later, defense ministers from Japan, Australia and Indonesia held their first trilateral meeting focused on military cooperation.
These developments suggest that regional partners are seeking additional security arrangements to reduce their vulnerability to political uncertainty in Washington and growing economic pressure from Beijing.
Yuki Tatsumi, a former special assistant for political affairs at the Japanese Embassy in Washington, said the three countries were increasingly looking beyond the current U.S. administration.
She said officials in Tokyo, Canberra and New Delhi were hoping that a future American administration, whether Republican or Democratic, would restore stronger political commitment to the Quad.
“None of the other three Quad members would move to actively exclude the U.S., but they’re definitely actively looking at areas where they can do more together,” Tatsumi said.
She added that closer cooperation among the three Indo-Pacific partners was becoming increasingly important because they recognized that collective action offered a stronger response to potential Chinese economic pressure.
Monday’s meeting in the Philippines therefore carries significance beyond its diplomatic symbolism. It will test whether Trump is prepared to restore presidential-level engagement with the Quad and reassure partners whose confidence in Washington has been shaken.
