The chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, arrived in Tehran Thursday for critical nuclear talks with Iran’s political and nuclear leadership. This mission comes at a pivotal moment, as Grossi attempts to stabilize growing nuclear tensions mere weeks before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump resumes office. Trump’s previous term saw the implementation of a “maximum pressure” campaign that imposed extensive economic sanctions on Iran, unraveling years of nuclear diplomacy.
Grossi’s visit marks his second to Iran in 2023, but with Trump’s imminent return, the stakes are higher than ever. A senior IAEA delegation accompanied Grossi, underscoring the urgency and complexity of the issues at hand. His agenda includes a series of meetings with top officials, including Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Atomic Energy Organisation head Mohammad Eslami, and Iran’s new President Masoud Pezeshkian. These meetings are widely viewed as Grossi’s last attempt to bridge the widening gap between Iran and the West before a potential escalation in sanctions or military action.
Following Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear agreement in 2018, Iran has incrementally rolled back its commitments under the deal. It began enriching uranium beyond the 3.67 percent threshold stipulated in the original agreement, reaching levels of up to 60 percent purity — dangerously close to the 90 percent threshold necessary for nuclear weapon production. Although Iran continues to deny any intent to develop nuclear weapons, its accumulation of enriched uranium has become a flashpoint for Western nations, sparking serious concerns over a potential nuclear arms race in the Middle East.
For Grossi, the mission is a difficult balancing act. “The head of the IAEA will do what he can to prevent the situation going from bad to worse,” said Ali Vaez, an Iran specialist with the Crisis Group, a U.S.-based think tank. “Given the significant differences between Tehran and Western capitals, Grossi has limited but vital tools to encourage cooperation.”
Grossi has maintained that Iran does not currently possess nuclear weapons but has noted that the country’s enriched uranium stockpile could potentially be redirected towards military purposes if diplomatic measures fail. “The margins for maneuver are beginning to shrink,” Grossi cautioned during an interview this week. “It is imperative to find ways to reach diplomatic solutions.”
During his first term in office, Trump introduced a stringent “maximum pressure” policy that effectively reimposed sanctions on Iran, reversing the progress made under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The sanctions crippled Iran’s economy and fueled anti-American sentiment within the country, leading Tehran to retaliate by stepping away from its JCPOA obligations. Following Trump’s 2018 decision to unilaterally withdraw from the deal, Iran steadily advanced its nuclear program.
Iranian leaders are quick to point out that the U.S., not Iran, is responsible for the collapse of the nuclear accord. “The one who left the agreement was not Iran, it was America,” government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani reiterated on Wednesday. Mohajerani emphasized Iran’s skepticism of any potential future negotiations with a Trump-led administration, saying, “Mr. Trump once tried the path of maximum pressure and saw that this path did not work.”
Grossi’s visit coincides with escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, two regional adversaries with a long history of confrontations. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz recently described Iran as “more exposed than ever to strikes on its nuclear facilities,” indicating that Israel might be willing to take unilateral action should diplomatic measures fail. In recent months, the rivalry between the two nations has intensified, with direct attacks exchanged as violence surges across the broader Middle Eastern landscape, particularly between Israel and Iranian allies such as Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Against this volatile backdrop, Grossi’s diplomatic mission carries an urgency that goes beyond standard nuclear protocol. Military analysts have warned that if diplomacy collapses, a full-blown conflict between Israel and Iran could be imminent, a scenario that Grossi and other international mediators are eager to avoid. “Grossi understands the gravity of the situation,” commented Vaez. “With tensions this high, even a small misstep could have massive repercussions for the region.”
Iran’s nuclear stance remains a contentious issue domestically, with some factions urging a re-evaluation of the country’s nuclear policies. While Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has long upheld a religious edict, or fatwa, against the development of nuclear weapons, recent calls from certain lawmakers reflect a shifting attitude. They advocate for a stronger deterrent against external threats, particularly from Israel, suggesting that Iran’s nuclear doctrine should allow for the development of a nuclear deterrent.
Tehran’s hardline legislators have called on Khamenei to reconsider his stance, arguing that given Israel’s continued strikes and Iran’s precarious position, a redefined nuclear posture may be necessary to ensure national security. Khamenei, who holds the final authority on such issues, has not responded to these calls publicly, but analysts believe that Grossi’s visit might subtly influence Iran’s approach to its nuclear policy.
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, elected in July on promises to improve relations with the West, has expressed support for reviving the JCPOA, signaling an openness to diplomacy. However, Iran’s commitment to transparency with the IAEA has been inconsistent; in recent years, Tehran has restricted access to certain nuclear sites and switched off monitoring equipment, impeding the agency’s ability to verify the scope of Iran’s nuclear activities.
Grossi has repeatedly urged Iran to fully cooperate with the IAEA to facilitate a return to JCPOA terms. Yet, these calls have faced resistance from factions within Iran that view the nuclear deal as a concession to Western interests. “The IAEA chief has not given up on reviving the nuclear agreement, but his task is undeniably difficult,” said Farzin Azadi, an independent policy analyst based in Tehran. “Iran wants assurances that the West will not repeat past mistakes, yet those assurances are hard to come by.”
Iran’s nuclear ambitions date back to the late 1950s when the United States signed a civil nuclear cooperation agreement with then-shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. In 1970, Iran ratified the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), subjecting its nuclear activities to IAEA oversight. However, following the 1979 Islamic Revolution, relations between Iran and the West soured, culminating in decades of mistrust and frequent confrontations over Tehran’s nuclear activities.
The 2015 nuclear deal was a landmark agreement in this troubled history, temporarily easing tensions by lifting sanctions in exchange for Iran’s commitment to curtail its nuclear program. Although many Iranians viewed the JCPOA as a step toward modernization and international reintegration, hardliners saw it as a compromise of the country’s sovereignty.
With Grossi’s latest diplomatic effort, the possibility of reviving the nuclear deal has re-emerged, but skepticism abounds. Observers note that while Tehran and Washington have both expressed conditional willingness to revisit the JCPOA framework, the ideological divide remains profound.
For Grossi, this visit may be one of his final opportunities to prevent a breakdown in the diplomatic framework, given Trump’s impending return. Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi conveyed optimism but warned that Tehran’s patience is not unlimited. “Iran has cooperated to a great extent, and it expects the same respect in return,” Araghchi said.
