Amid growing tensions with Russia, Germany is set to revive compulsory conscription, a move that marks a significant shift in its defense policy. This decision, detailed in a recently released 67-page document, outlines how the country plans to prepare its citizens for potential conflict. Simultaneously, the US is preparing to bolster NATO’s eastern defenses, highlighting the escalating concerns over Russia’s actions.
In 2011, Germany, under Angela Merkel’s leadership, abolished compulsory conscription. At that time, the global security landscape seemed stable, and the decision was seen as a step towards modernizing the military. However, recent developments, particularly Russia’s aggressive stance and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, have prompted a reevaluation of this policy.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has been vocal about the need for a renewed military draft, calling Merkel’s decision a ‘mistake.’ Speaking at Johns Hopkins University, Pistorius emphasized the changed security dynamics in Europe and the necessity for Germany to be prepared for potential conflict.
New Defense Framework
The updated 1989 Framework Directive for Overall Defense (RRGV) is Germany’s comprehensive plan for wartime measures. Here are the key components:
- Conscription: The document outlines the reintroduction of compulsory military service for citizens over 18. This marks a significant departure from previous policies and aims to bolster the Bundeswehr’s ranks.
- Economic Mobilization: German businesses will be required to increase defense production. Hospitals and medical professionals, including doctors, nurses, and psychologists, will be allocated between the military and civil society to handle war casualties.
- Civilian Support: The government plans to facilitate one hot meal per day for the population and rely on secret grain stockpiles to ensure food security. IT infrastructure from private companies will be repurposed to support the war effort.
- Public Safety and Communication: The framework emphasizes the need for correct information dissemination through various channels and outlines the importance of alerting the public about chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear hazards. In extreme cases, weather information may be restricted to military use only.
NATO’s strategic plans include the rapid deployment of US troops to Eastern Europe. This move aims to strengthen NATO’s eastern flank and provide a buffer against any potential Russian advances. Earlier this June, NATO announced plans for American troops to pass through ‘land corridors’ and stay in European bases, ready for immediate action if necessary.
Western-made weapons being used in attacks on Russian targets has further escalated tensions. Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned European countries about the dangers of miscalculation, signaling that Europe is preparing for a more active role in the conflict.
Germany’s Military Capacity and Challenges
During the Cold War, Germany maintained a robust military force, spending about 4% of its GDP on defense and boasting 400,000 personnel and 2,500 tanks. Today, the situation is markedly different. The Bundeswehr has shrunk to 180,000 troops, and Germany has only recently met NATO’s 2% spending target, largely thanks to a €100 billion fund established for military contingencies.
This fund, however, is expected to be depleted by 2028, and Germany faces significant challenges in expanding its military to the desired 203,000 personnel by 2031. The logistical and financial hurdles of reintroducing conscription and building the necessary infrastructure are daunting, especially in an aging society with a labor shortage.
The idea of reinstating conscription has met with considerable opposition within Germany. Changing the constitution and securing billions in funding for the logistical costs of training and accommodating tens of thousands of recruits are significant obstacles. However, public opinion appears to be shifting due to the perceived threat from Russia. A recent poll indicated that a majority of Germans now support the return of national service, making it a pivotal issue for the upcoming federal election in 2025.
The new wartime framework also includes plans to convert subway stations into bomb shelters and ration food supplies. The Bundeswehr is aiming to maintain essential services such as garbage collection and parliamentary sessions to preserve normalcy and democratic governance.
Hybrid Threats and Information Security
In addition to traditional military threats, the document highlights the increasing danger of hybrid threats, including cyber-attacks, espionage, and disinformation. The government plans to enhance its capabilities to counter these threats, ensuring the integrity of information and public safety.
NATO is identifying new land corridors to facilitate quick troop movement across Europe. Current plans include landing troops in the Netherlands, with new routes allowing movement into the Balkans from Italy, Greece, or Turkey, and towards the northern borders via Norway, Sweden, and Finland. In the event of a Russian attack on a NATO member, the alliance has agreed to maintain 300,000 troops on high alert, ready to defend the borders.
Germany’s decision to revive compulsory conscription and the US’s preparations to bolster NATO’s eastern defenses reflect a significant shift in European security strategy. As tensions with Russia continue to escalate, these measures underscore the seriousness with which Western nations are preparing for potential conflict. The challenges ahead are substantial, but the commitment to defending NATO’s eastern flank and ensuring national security remains unwavering.
