Former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, a towering figure in the country’s political landscape, has recently sought refuge in India amid escalating violent protests in Bangladesh. In a striking statement, she has accused the United States of orchestrating her political downfall due to her refusal to cede sovereignty over Saint Martin Island, a small but strategically vital landmass in the Bay of Bengal. This development marks a significant turning point in Bangladesh’s political landscape and has wide-ranging implications for regional geopolitics.
Saint Martin Island, a three-square-kilometer island located in the northeastern part of the Bay of Bengal, has long been a subject of geopolitical interest. Situated approximately nine kilometers south of the Cox’s Bazar-Teknaf peninsula, the island forms the southernmost part of Bangladesh. Its strategic location has attracted attention from global powers, particularly the United States, due to its proximity to critical sea lanes that connect China, Japan, and Korea with the Middle East and Africa.
The Bay of Bengal, the largest bay in the world, is a crucial maritime hub. It lies atop sea lanes that are vital for global trade, with nearly half of the world’s trade passing through these waters. The region’s importance is further amplified by the US policy of maintaining a ‘Free, Open, and Inclusive Indo-Pacific,’ a policy aimed at countering China’s growing influence in the region. In this context, control over Saint Martin Island would provide a strategic vantage point for any nation, particularly the United States, to monitor and potentially influence maritime activities in the Bay of Bengal.
In a statement issued to the Economic Times, Sheikh Hasina claimed that her refusal to surrender the sovereignty of Saint Martin Island to the United States was the catalyst for her political demise. “I could have remained in power if I had surrendered the sovereignty of Saint Martin Island and allowed America to hold sway over the Bay of Bengal,” Hasina stated, highlighting the intense geopolitical pressure she faced during her tenure.
This accusation is significant not only for its direct implications but also for what it reveals about the broader geopolitical contest in the region. The Bay of Bengal’s strategic importance has made it a focal point for major powers, including the United States, China, India, and Japan. Control over Saint Martin Island would provide any of these powers with a critical foothold in the region, allowing them to monitor and influence maritime traffic and project power across the Indo-Pacific.
The relationship between Sheikh Hasina’s government and the United States has been fraught with tension, particularly in recent years. The United States has increasingly focused on promoting democracy and human rights in Bangladesh, making the country a focal point of its broader South Asian strategy. In December 2021, the US sanctioned Bangladesh’s elite security force, the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), over alleged extrajudicial killings and other human rights violations. This move significantly strained the ties between Dhaka and Washington, pushing Bangladesh closer to other global powers, notably Russia and China.
Sheikh Hasina’s resistance to US pressure is not new. Earlier this year, she disclosed to the 14-party alliance that Western countries had offered her a “hassle-free re-election” in the upcoming January 7 polls in exchange for allowing a foreign power to establish an airbase on Bangladeshi territory. While she did not explicitly name the United States, her comments strongly implied that Washington was behind the offer. “The offer came from a white man,” Hasina stated, suggesting that the proposal was not just about Bangladesh but had broader regional implications.
The strategic significance of Saint Martin Island cannot be overstated. The island is not only a valuable territorial asset for Bangladesh but also a potential game-changer in the broader Indo-Pacific region. Its proximity to Myanmar, just eight kilometers from the coast, and its location within the Bay of Bengal make it a critical point of interest for any power seeking to project influence in the region.
The Bay of Bengal is surrounded by key regional players, including India, Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. It also lies close to the Strait of Malacca, one of the world’s most important strategic chokepoints that connects the Indian Ocean with the South China Sea. Control over Saint Martin Island would provide a significant strategic advantage, allowing for enhanced surveillance and potentially greater control over maritime traffic passing through these vital sea lanes.
China, in particular, has long sought access to the Bay of Bengal as part of its broader efforts to secure its maritime interests and counterbalance US influence in the region. Both Myanmar and Bangladesh have facilitated China’s entry into the Bay of Bengal, a development that has been closely monitored by other regional powers, particularly India and the United States.
In 2023, Sheikh Hasina made a bold move by unveiling Bangladesh’s first submarine base, BNS Sheikh Hasina, in Cox’s Bazar. Constructed with Chinese assistance under a contract signed in 2019, the base is a ‘state-of-the-art’ facility capable of berthing six submarines and eight naval vessels simultaneously. This development not only bolstered Bangladesh’s maritime capabilities but also sent a clear signal to regional and global powers about Dhaka’s intentions in the Bay of Bengal.
Hasina emphasized that the submarine base would help protect Bangladesh’s maritime assets and benefit vessels traversing the Bay of Bengal. This statement was interpreted by many as an indication that the base could also accommodate Chinese submarines, further complicating the region’s already complex geopolitical dynamics. The possibility of Chinese submarines docking at the base would undoubtedly raise concerns in Washington and New Delhi, both of which are wary of China’s expanding influence in the Indo-Pacific.
Rumors of US interest in Saint Martin Island are not new. As far back as 2003, there were media reports suggesting that Washington was eager to lease a military base from Dhaka to station its forces in the region. However, these reports were quickly denied by the then-US Ambassador to Bangladesh, Mary Ann Peters. Addressing a seminar at the Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies (BIISS), Peters categorically stated, “The United States has no plans, no requirement, and no desire for a military base on St. Martin’s Island, Chittagong, or anywhere else in Bangladesh.”
Despite these denials, the rumors persisted, fueled by the island’s strategic importance and the broader geopolitical context. The US has consistently emphasized the importance of a ‘Free, Open, and Inclusive Indo-Pacific,’ a policy that is widely seen as a counter to China’s assertiveness in the region. Control over Saint Martin Island would provide the US with a critical foothold in the Bay of Bengal, enhancing its ability to monitor and potentially influence maritime activities in this vital region.
The recent protests and political turmoil in Bangladesh have raised questions about the potential for regime change, with many speculating that external forces may be involved. Rashed Khan Menon, president of the Workers Party of Bangladesh, made a striking allegation during a parliamentary discussion on June 14, 2023. Menon claimed that the United States was pursuing control of Saint Martin Island and that the new US visa policy was part of a broader strategy for “regime change” in Bangladesh.
This allegation gained further traction in September 2023, when US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced a policy that reserves the right to deny visas to individuals in Bangladesh who are deemed to be hindering free and fair elections in the country. This move was widely interpreted as a direct challenge to Sheikh Hasina’s government and a signal of Washington’s desire for political change in Dhaka.
The current political crisis in Bangladesh and Sheikh Hasina’s subsequent flight to India have far-reaching implications for the region. Her departure marks the end of an era in Bangladeshi politics, one that was characterized by her strong leadership and resistance to external pressures. However, her accusations against the United States have also brought to light the complex and often contentious geopolitics of the Bay of Bengal.
The region is at a critical juncture, with major powers vying for influence in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape. The United States, China, India, and Japan all have significant stakes in the Bay of Bengal, and the future of Saint Martin Island will likely be a key factor in shaping the region’s dynamics. For the US, securing a foothold in the Bay of Bengal would be a major strategic win, allowing it to project power across the Indo-Pacific and counterbalance China’s growing influence. For China, maintaining its presence in the region is equally critical, as it seeks to secure its maritime interests and safeguard its trade routes.
India, as the dominant regional power, has a vested interest in the outcome of the current crisis in Bangladesh. While New Delhi has historically supported Sheikh Hasina’s government, it is also wary of the growing Chinese presence in the Bay of Bengal. The prospect of a US military base on Saint Martin Island could be seen as both a strategic advantage and a potential threat, depending on how it impacts India’s own security interests in the region.
India’s response to the current crisis will be closely watched by regional and global powers alike. New Delhi has traditionally sought to balance its relationships with both the United States and China, and the current situation in Bangladesh presents both challenges and opportunities for Indian diplomacy. On one hand, the departure of Sheikh Hasina could lead to a shift in the region’s balance of power, potentially opening the door for greater US influence. On the other hand, India may see this as an opportunity to strengthen its own ties with Bangladesh and assert its influence in the Bay of Bengal.
The political turmoil in Bangladesh and the subsequent refuge sought by Sheikh Hasina in India mark a significant moment in the region’s history. Her accusations against the United States have brought to the forefront the complex and often contentious geopolitics of the Bay of Bengal, a region that is increasingly becoming a focal point for major global powers.
As the situation in Bangladesh continues to unfold, the future of Saint Martin Island and the broader Bay of Bengal region remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that the region will continue to be a key battleground for influence between the United States, China, India, and other major powers. The outcome of this struggle will have far-reaching implications not only for Bangladesh but for the entire Indo-Pacific region.
