While much of the world’s attention is focused on who will occupy the White House after this week’s US election, another critical power struggle is unfolding—one that will directly shape the course of American policy and governance over the next two years. Across the nation, the battle for control of Congress is expected to be fiercely competitive, with both the House of Representatives and the Senate appearing too close to call.
For many Americans, the outcome of these congressional races is as significant as the presidential contest. “Congressional elections are just as important as the presidential race because Congress creates and passes the laws that directly impact people’s lives,” said Corryn Freeman of Future Coalition, an organization that supports youth activists across the country. “The public should pay close attention since control of Congress determines the direction of key issues like health care, education, and climate policy—often having a more immediate effect than presidential decisions.”
With all 435 seats in the House and 34 of the Senate’s 100 seats up for grabs, the stakes are high, and the results could determine whether the incoming president faces a supportive or obstructive Congress.
The United States Congress, seated in the iconic US Capitol building overlooking Washington’s National Mall, is not only a legislative powerhouse but also an essential check on executive power. As the legislative branch of the federal government, it holds significant influence over domestic and foreign policies. Congress sets the defense budget, regulates trade and tariffs, and allocates foreign aid. These decisions affect the global economy and international relations, with ripple effects that extend well beyond American borders.
This year, the battle is intensifying against a backdrop of urgent national issues, such as rising healthcare costs, climate change, inflation, and social policies, all of which demand legislative solutions. The ability of the next president to act on their promises hinges on which party holds Congress. The “trifecta” of control—where one party holds the White House, the Senate, and the House—would allow for streamlined governance and facilitate passing key legislation. But a split government could mean gridlock, where political infighting stalls the legislative process, delaying or even blocking major reforms.
Control of Congress also determines the makeup and direction of judicial confirmations, as Senate approval is required for lifetime appointments to federal courts, including the Supreme Court. With issues like abortion, gun rights, and voting laws still hotly debated, judicial appointments remain a top priority for both parties.
In the Senate, where terms are staggered and each senator serves for six years, the Republicans are expected to have a slight edge due to a favorable election map. The Democratic Party currently holds a razor-thin majority, but it is defending around two-thirds of the seats up for election. To gain control, Republicans need to flip just one additional seat beyond their current standing.
The challenges for Senate Democrats are particularly stark. Three of their most vulnerable seats are in states that former President Donald Trump won in both 2016 and 2020. Additionally, five are located in swing states where the electorate tends to shift allegiances between election cycles. One notable loss is the West Virginia seat held by moderate Democrat Joe Manchin, who opted not to seek re-election. With West Virginia being a deeply conservative state, Republicans are widely expected to reclaim this seat, effectively putting Democrats at an initial disadvantage.
Key battleground states in the Senate race include Montana and Ohio, both of which lean right yet have long-standing Democratic incumbents. Republicans see these states as prime opportunities to expand their Senate majority. Meanwhile, Democrats are pinning their hopes on securing seats in states traditionally leaning Republican but with competitive races this year, such as Florida and Texas.
In Florida, Democrats are trying to unseat Senator Rick Scott, whose lead has dwindled to a slim five points. Additionally, in Texas, a tightening race involving Senator Ted Cruz has Democrats hopeful they can break the Republican stronghold. Democrats are counting on the abortion referendum to energize their base, particularly in these states, though similar efforts in the 2022 midterms failed to make a decisive impact in places like Florida.
Among those pushing for congressional change are youth activists, who have increasingly organized to support candidates and issues they feel are overlooked by the political establishment. For young voters, policies on climate change, healthcare access, and student debt are top priorities. According to Corryn Freeman, this demographic is “fired up” and sees the election as an opportunity to effect meaningful change.
Freeman noted that while the Senate is likely to fall to the Republicans, the House remains highly competitive. A Democratic majority in both chambers would allow President Biden, or any Democratic successor, to push forward a progressive agenda, while a split Congress could make legislative victories harder to come by.
“Young people are often at the forefront of social change, and this election is no different,” Freeman said. “They are deeply engaged, especially on issues like climate change and reproductive rights, which are under direct threat in some parts of the country.”
Unlike the Senate, where only a third of seats are contested every two years, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives are on the line in every election. This makes the House races a closer reflection of current political sentiment. In the 2022 midterms, Republicans managed to secure a slim majority of 220 seats to the Democrats’ 212, with three seats left vacant. This narrow gap has left control of the House far from settled.
House Democrats have enjoyed a fundraising advantage, which they hope to leverage to unseat vulnerable Republican incumbents. With substantial resources, they have been able to highlight recent legislative accomplishments, such as the infrastructure bill and healthcare subsidies, contrasting them with a Republican-led House term marred by internal divisions. House Democrats have consistently argued that the current GOP-led term has been one of the most “dysfunctional” in recent history, focusing more on internal power struggles than effective legislation.
Some political analysts agree with this assessment, suggesting that Democrats stand a good chance of flipping the House if they can capitalize on voters’ frustrations with the lack of legislative productivity. Keith Gaddie, a professor of political science at Texas Christian University, noted that the House remains within reach for Democrats but cautioned that the outcome remains unpredictable.
“The reality is, literally anything can happen in terms of control,” Gaddie said. “We won’t really know until the voting—and the litigation—are over. Because litigation is the final act of any election these days.”
As Americans head to the polls, the issues most likely to influence voter sentiment include inflation, healthcare, reproductive rights, and gun control. With inflation still at elevated levels, many voters are concerned about the economy, a traditional stronghold for Republicans. Healthcare remains another hot-button issue, as premiums and prescription drug prices continue to rise, with Democrats advocating for expanded coverage and Republicans pushing for private market solutions.
Reproductive rights are also on the ballot, especially in the wake of recent Supreme Court decisions that have granted states greater power to regulate abortion. Democrats have focused on this issue in an effort to galvanize support, particularly among women and younger voters. However, whether this issue alone will be enough to shift the tide in key states remains uncertain.
Climate policy, another point of divergence, holds significant weight with younger and progressive voters. While Republicans have generally advocated for policies favoring traditional energy industries, Democrats are pushing for renewable energy investments and more stringent environmental regulations. With climate disasters becoming more frequent, many Americans see climate action as a pressing need, and the outcome of this election could heavily influence the US’s approach to environmental policy in the coming years.
