As Americans prepare for Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 5, voters and officials alike are bracing for a potentially historic wait to find out who will lead the nation. Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump are locked in a highly competitive race, each vying to secure 270 of the 538 Electoral College votes required to claim the White House. With heightened political tensions and nearly 81 million early votes already cast, the potential for legal disputes, ballot delays, and recounts is causing both anticipation and uncertainty across the country.
Officials nationwide are urging the public to prepare for delays in final results, potentially requiring days or even weeks to complete an official count if legal challenges arise. Such a scenario recalls the protracted wait for election results in 2020, when Joe Biden’s victory was not confirmed until four days after the polls closed. Election experts and government officials warn that, due to the high stakes and divisive nature of this year’s race, Election Day may mark the beginning rather than the culmination of the presidential decision-making process.
In the United States, citizens do not directly vote for their presidential candidate of choice. Instead, they cast ballots for a group of representatives who make up the Electoral College, a group of 538 electors allocated across the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Each state’s share of the Electoral College votes is based on its number of Congressional representatives, meaning larger states such as California, Texas, and Florida hold more sway.
This unique system means the candidate who wins a state’s popular vote is awarded all of that state’s electoral votes (with Maine and Nebraska as exceptions, using a proportional allocation). The Electoral College is tasked with delivering the definitive vote tally required to select the president. Harris and Trump are both focused on reaching the majority threshold of 270 electoral votes, with critical battleground states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan holding immense influence. Yet, with each party mobilizing for a neck-and-neck race, both candidates face challenges that could extend beyond Election Day.
As of early November, a record-breaking 81 million Americans have already cast their ballots, either through early in-person voting or mail-in ballots. This figure exceeds half of the total turnout from 2020, signaling both high engagement and increased reliance on early voting due to logistical and scheduling concerns. However, such a volume of mail-in ballots could slow the counting process significantly in states where election officials are restricted from processing these votes until Election Day. In Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, mail-in ballots cannot be tallied until Nov. 5, which could further delay these critical swing states’ contributions to the overall count.
If election results remain close, recounts may be necessary in highly contested states, triggering additional days of counting and scrutiny. Past elections have seen swift declarations of results by media organizations, which assess exit polls and vote counts as they come in. However, these projections are unofficial and must be certified at the state level before becoming the formal outcome. In 2020, for example, the Associated Press and other media networks called the election for Biden on Nov. 7, four days after the polls closed. This year, a similarly close race could prolong the announcement as counting proceeds.
Given the razor-thin margins in several battleground states, both parties are preparing for an influx of legal challenges that could prolong the tabulation process. Historically, elections that hinge on a few decisive states, such as Florida in the 2000 race between George W. Bush and Al Gore, have seen intense legal battles over ballot validity and recounts. The recent increase in election-related lawsuits points to a potentially complex and extended post-election period.
As of November 2023, dozens of lawsuits have been filed across states, contesting everything from the handling of mail-in ballots to the accessibility of polling stations. The surge in legal cases is fueled by memories of the contested 2020 election, when then-President Trump and his allies mounted numerous challenges, many of which were dismissed in court. This year, both Democrats and Republicans have mobilized substantial legal resources in anticipation of any contested outcomes.
The certification of election results is a crucial procedural step in the US electoral system. Each state’s electoral votes are certified at the state level before the certified results are sent to Congress. According to US law, states are required to finalize their results by Dec. 11. These certified results are then sent to the Senate, where Vice President Harris, in her role as Senate President, is slated to receive each state’s electoral certificates by Dec. 25. Congress officially counts and confirms the electoral votes on Jan. 6, which paves the way for the president-elect to be inaugurated on Jan. 20.
The certification process, generally seen as a mere formality, has grown increasingly controversial in recent years. Since 2020, when Trump refused to concede and challenged the certification process, concerns have emerged over potential obstructions. In fact, reports from Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) and other watchdog groups have shown that some election officials have recently refused to certify results in certain counties. This trend has the potential to undermine the certification deadlines at both the state and federal levels, casting further uncertainty on the timeline for finalizing election outcomes.
Brookings Institution experts have pointed out a sharp rise in incidents of election certification obstruction, with 22 county officials in battleground states refusing to certify results in 2022—nearly a 30 percent increase from 2020. Legal and political analysts warn that this trend could escalate in 2024, especially as certification delays or rejections could jeopardize the timeline for electoral vote finalization.
The risk of obstruction underscores the deeply polarized atmosphere of the 2024 election. With both parties highly invested in the outcome and with the memory of a contested election still fresh, any obstacles could stir further political discord. Legal experts suggest that in cases where local officials attempt to block certification, state-level courts may need to intervene to compel adherence to the established deadlines.
In the US, major media outlets play a pivotal role in projecting election results as votes are counted. News organizations analyze incoming data and often call races based on early returns, exit polls, and partial counts. However, media projections are not official, and final results must still go through state certification processes. While rapid reporting offers the public a sense of direction, official results are not determined until the last ballot is counted and validated by election authorities.
With the intense competition between Harris and Trump and concerns about accuracy, media organizations are expected to exercise caution in projecting results this year. In highly polarized environments, missteps in early reporting could exacerbate tensions and fuel misinformation, making the media’s responsibility even more crucial in 2024.
The 2024 election reflects a continuation of the political and legal challenges seen in 2020, where Trump’s refusal to concede spurred multiple court battles. Even after Biden’s victory was confirmed, Trump and his supporters continued to challenge the outcome, creating an environment where the integrity of future elections has become a hotly contested topic. This legacy has cast a shadow over the current election, with both parties remaining vigilant and preparing for the possibility of recounts and legal appeals. The proliferation of election-related lawsuits, paired with new laws aimed at regulating mail-in and absentee voting, has further heightened scrutiny of the process.
Following state certifications, the formal counting of the electoral votes by Congress on Jan. 6 marks the final procedural step before the inauguration. This date holds significant symbolic weight, particularly after the events of Jan. 6, 2021, when a mob disrupted the certification process. The historical resonance of this date adds a layer of gravity to the proceedings, as Congress seeks to fulfill its duty in confirming the nation’s next leader.
With the increased risk of certification delays, legal challenges, and procedural obstructions, both parties are likely to keep a close eye on the Jan. 6 certification. Any efforts to delay or disrupt this process could have serious consequences, potentially requiring further legal intervention and intensifying political discord.
