The AGM-183A Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW), a hypersonic missile project once touted as a major breakthrough in U.S. military capabilities, has received fresh funding despite earlier signals that it might be terminated. The ARRW, designed as a counter to China’s and Russia’s increasingly advanced hypersonic weapons programs, has faced numerous challenges, including failed tests and delays. Yet, in a move that has raised eyebrows among defense analysts, the U.S. Air Force has recently awarded Lockheed Martin, the project’s primary contractor, an additional $13.4 million.
The unexpected funding injection has sparked speculation about the future of the ARRW program, which had been on the brink of cancellation. The additional funding, first reported by The War Zone, could signify one of two outcomes: either the money will be used to wind down the ARRW project, or it could be funneled into a related follow-on program, the Tactical Boost Glide (TBG) initiative, signaling a potential shift in strategy.
At the heart of the ARRW program is its hypersonic boost-glide technology. Hypersonic weapons like the ARRW can travel at speeds exceeding Mach 5 (five times the speed of sound) and are engineered to evade detection and interception. This speed and agility make them ideal for striking high-value, well-defended targets, such as critical air defense installations, command and control centers, and other strategic nodes housed in hardened facilities.
However, the ARRW’s path to operational status has been fraught with challenges. Each missile is estimated to cost between $14.9 and $17.5 million per unit, a high price tag that has limited plans for mass production. Initially considered a critical asset to counter threats posed by adversaries like China and Russia, the ARRW would only be fielded in limited numbers due to its cost.
In addition to financial concerns, technical difficulties have also plagued the ARRW program. The Arms Control Association (ACA) reported in late 2023 that the program was facing termination due to repeated testing failures. The U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, through the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act, eliminated $150 million in requested funding for further development. This lack of financial backing raised doubts about whether the program would ever reach operational deployment.
The ARRW’s struggles must be understood within the broader context of global hypersonic arms development. The United States, once a leader in this field, now finds itself playing catch-up to China and Russia. Both nations have made significant strides in hypersonic missile technology over the past decade. China, in particular, has invested heavily in hypersonic research and infrastructure, building wind tunnels and other specialized facilities. As noted by defense expert Josh Luckenbaugh in a July 2024 article for National Defense Magazine, China’s hypersonic capabilities are now considered the most advanced in the world.
Russia, too, has not been idle. It has already deployed three hypersonic systems and has used them in combat during its conflict with Ukraine. These developments have underscored the urgency for the U.S. to modernize its own missile capabilities to maintain strategic parity.
The U.S., meanwhile, has experienced setbacks. The ARRW’s live-fire tests have often failed to meet expectations, and procurement delays pushed back the originally scheduled 2023 deployment date. These issues have not only hampered the ARRW program but have also highlighted the lack of a coherent national strategy for developing hypersonic weapons to match the progress seen in China and Russia.
The U.S. Air Force’s recent decision to allocate an additional $13.4 million to Lockheed Martin for the ARRW project has been met with mixed reactions. While some interpret the funding as a final lifeline for the program, others believe it could signal a pivot towards a different hypersonic weapon development strategy.
According to The War Zone, this latest funding might be used to support the Tactical Boost Glide (TBG) program, a joint DARPA-Air Force effort aimed at developing air-launched hypersonic systems that could provide a more reliable alternative to the ARRW. The TBG is designed to achieve many of the same goals as the ARRW, but with potentially greater flexibility and cost-effectiveness. Furthermore, it will consider compatibility with existing U.S. Navy platforms, such as the Vertical Launch System (VLS), expanding its deployment options beyond just the Air Force.
If the $13.4 million does indeed go toward winding down the ARRW and accelerating the TBG, it may represent a quiet transition rather than a sudden termination of U.S. efforts to field hypersonic weapons. This could also point to a more classified evolution of the hypersonic program, suggesting that the U.S. military may be learning valuable lessons from the ARRW’s failures and incorporating them into future developments.
The competition to field hypersonic weapons is about more than just technological prestige. Hypersonic missiles offer critical military advantages, particularly in what the U.S. Department of Defense calls “anti-access/area denial” (A2/AD) environments. These are heavily defended areas where traditional air and missile attacks may struggle to penetrate.
In the case of the ARRW, its primary mission was to neutralize such threats by targeting critical infrastructure and command centers deep within enemy territory. The missile’s high speed and maneuverability make it difficult for even the most advanced air defense systems to intercept. This capability is particularly crucial as the U.S. contends with China’s growing A2/AD capabilities in the Pacific region, where tensions over Taiwan and other contested areas have heightened concerns about potential conflict.
Despite the ARRW’s importance, the setbacks it has faced—both technical and financial—have exposed broader challenges within the U.S. defense establishment. Namely, the country’s hypersonic expertise has been largely neglected since the end of the Cold War, and much of what remains resides in academic institutions rather than defense contractors. This lack of industry expertise contrasts sharply with China’s more centralized and well-funded hypersonic research and development efforts.
Amid the ARRW’s struggles, there are signs that the U.S. military is pivoting to a new approach for hypersonic weapons development. In March 2023, the U.S. Air Force publicly stated that it favored the Hypersonic Air-breathing Weapon Concept (HAWC) over the ARRW. The HAWC missile represents a fundamentally different design philosophy compared to the ARRW’s boost-glide technology. Whereas boost-glide systems rely on a rocket booster to propel a glide vehicle to hypersonic speeds, the HAWC operates as an air-breathing missile, utilizing the atmosphere for sustained flight at hypersonic speeds.
Air-breathing hypersonic weapons have several advantages over boost-glide designs. For one, they do not require exotic materials to withstand the extreme heat generated during reentry, as boost-glide systems do. This significantly reduces production costs. Furthermore, air-breathing missiles are more versatile, capable of being deployed on a wider range of platforms, from fighters to bombers, making them more flexible for different military scenarios.
According to a report in Breaking Defense from April 2022, air-breathing hypersonics could also prove more reliable than boost-glide systems, which involve the integration of multiple subsystems. This complexity introduces more points of potential failure, contributing to the ARRW’s repeated test failures.
An August 2024 report from the U.S. Congressional Research Service (CRS) highlights some of the inherent limitations of boost-glide systems like the ARRW. While these weapons are maneuverable and can evade missile defenses, they do not necessarily travel faster than traditional ballistic reentry vehicles. The unpredictability of their flight paths complicates missile defense systems, but their overall speed limitations can reduce their effectiveness against certain targets.
Moreover, the U.S. focus on conventional warheads for hypersonic weapons adds another layer of complexity. Unlike China and Russia, which have pursued nuclear-armed hypersonics, the U.S. aims to develop precision-guided, conventional hypersonic weapons. This requires a higher degree of accuracy and technical sophistication, further complicating development and increasing costs.
The U.S.’s emerging preference for air-breathing hypersonic designs like the HAWC over boost-glide systems could signal a broader shift in its defense procurement strategy. As China and Russia continue to deploy hypersonic weapons, the U.S. needs to find cost-effective, reliable alternatives that can be fielded quickly and in significant numbers. Air-breathing missiles may offer a more practical solution to this challenge.
The future of the ARRW program remains uncertain. While the recent funding could represent a final attempt to salvage the project, it is more likely that the U.S. military will shift focus to programs like the TBG and HAWC. These systems may offer a better balance of cost, performance, and versatility, allowing the U.S. to keep pace with its hypersonic competitors.
As the U.S. adapts to the changing landscape of hypersonic warfare, the lessons learned from the ARRW’s setbacks will undoubtedly shape the next generation of missile technology. Whether the ARRW itself survives or is quietly replaced by a new class of hypersonic weapons, the race for dominance in hypersonic missile technology is far from over.
