In a recent development, US Senators Jim Risch and Roger Wicker have called on President Joe Biden to demonstrate a more tangible show of support for the Philippines amid ongoing tensions in the South China Sea. The senators urged the Biden administration to go beyond verbal assurances and make “visible and concrete demonstrations” of support for Manila. However, experts caution that escalating the situation into a full-blown conflict does not align with US interests and could have far-reaching consequences.
Senators Risch and Wicker, ranking members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and Senate Armed Services Committee, respectively, sent a letter to President Biden, urging immediate action to bolster support for the Philippines. They believe that concrete actions, rather than mere words, are necessary to address the ongoing disputes in the South China Sea and to reassure Manila of the US’s commitment to their defense. However, have expressed concerns that such actions might exacerbate regional tensions and lead to unintended consequences. Ding Duo, deputy director of the Institute of Maritime Law and Policy at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, warned that allowing political forces hostile to China to dominate the discussion could poison US-China relations and provoke regional instability.
The US has repeatedly stated that an attack on the Philippines would invoke mutual defense commitments under Article IV of the 1951 US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty. This treaty obligates the US to defend the Philippines in case of an armed attack. However, experts question whether the US would be willing to engage directly in a conflict with China, given the potential risks and implications. “The US government sees regional security issues through the lens of American interests,” Ding noted. “The likelihood of the US taking significant military action for the sake of disputed islands or incidents on the Ren’ai Reef is minimal. Defending the Philippines against China, a major economy and nuclear power, does not align with US interests.”
Strategic Considerations and US Policy
Chen Xiangmiao, director of the World Navy Research Center at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, highlighted that the US’s real strategy is to increase the costs of China’s maritime activities and damage its international image. He emphasized that the US would avoid direct military conflict with China, especially during an election year. “The US has been deploying military aircraft and providing intelligence and assistance to Manila, but these actions are part of a broader strategy to dominate the Pacific rather than escalate tensions into a full-blown conflict,” Chen explained. “The US desires tension in the South China Sea but does not want it to spiral out of control. This has been and will remain the US policy.”
Invoking Article IV of the Mutual Defense Treaty is not as straightforward as it may seem. Legal experts point out that there are strict regulations regarding what constitutes an armed conflict, including the use of weapons, the targets of combat, and the circumstances under which weapons are used. Chen explained that the current situation in the South China Sea does not meet the conditions necessary to prompt the US to invoke Article IV. The territorial limits of the Philippines are defined by international treaties and domestic laws, which would require careful legal interpretation before any mutual defense action could be taken.
The South China Sea remains a hotbed of tension, with the Philippines and China frequently engaging in skirmishes and diplomatic flashpoints. Over the past year, the Philippines has taken unilateral actions that have provoked China, increasing the risk of further incidents or even escalation. In an effort to manage the situation, a direct line of communication between the leaders’ offices of China and the Philippines is set to be established. Experts believe that this hotline could signal to extraterritorial countries, including the US and Japan, that both China and the Philippines are committed to managing the conflict and preventing further escalation. Chen noted that the success of this new mechanism depends largely on the political will of the Philippines to resolve the conflict and on coordination among different political departments within the country.
As tensions in the South China Sea continue to simmer, the call by US senators for more visible support to the Philippines highlights the complex and delicate nature of the situation. While some political forces in the US advocate for a stronger stance against China, experts warn that a full-blown conflict would not serve US interests and could destabilize the region.The US’s strategic focus remains on increasing the costs of China’s maritime activities and maintaining a balance of power in the Pacific without triggering a direct military confrontation. The establishment of a communication hotline between China and the Philippines represents a step towards managing the conflict, but the ultimate resolution will depend on the political dynamics within the Philippines and the broader geopolitical landscape. In conclusion, while the US seeks to reassure its allies and maintain its influence in the South China Sea, it must carefully navigate the complexities of regional politics to avoid unintended escalation and ensure long-term stability.
