Vietnam’s central bank has lowered its target for credit growth to around 15 per cent this year, signalling a more cautious policy stance after warnings that last year’s lending surge could fuel financial instability and asset price bubbles.
In a statement dated January 10, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) said it “projects system-wide credit growth at approximately 15 per cent” in 2026, down from the pace seen last year when credit expanded by about 20 per cent. The rapid growth in lending in 2025 was part of broader efforts by authorities to support economic expansion amid weak global demand, but it also drew concerns from economists about overheating risks, particularly in property and other speculative sectors.
In Vietnam’s Communist-run system, the central bank’s credit growth projections function as both guidance and a hard ceiling for lenders, making them a powerful policy tool. The new target is lower than the 16 per cent initially set for 2025 before it was later raised during the year, although the SBV has not disclosed what the final adjusted target for last year was.
Analysts say the move reflects a balancing act between sustaining growth and preserving financial stability. “In our view, the State Bank of Vietnam has tried to be receptive to market feedback,” said Willie Tanioto, an analyst at Fitch Ratings. He added that the credit target could still be adjusted later in the year, or even scrapped, depending on economic conditions and policy priorities.
Alongside the lower credit growth projection, the central bank said it had instructed lenders to tighten controls over loans to higher-risk sectors, including real estate. The property sector has been under close scrutiny following years of rapid expansion, rising leverage and concerns over price bubbles in major cities.
Market sentiment has already been affected by expectations of tighter lending conditions. Shares of several real estate companies fell last week after rumours circulated about an imminent change in the central bank’s loan policy, according to stock traders.
On Monday morning, shares of Vinhomes, Vietnam’s largest property developer, were down 6.4 per cent, dragging the broader real estate sector lower by about 5 per cent. The decline underscored investor sensitivity to any sign of tighter credit, highlighting the central role of bank lending in Vietnam’s asset markets and overall economic momentum.
