Vietnam has quietly intensified its military presence in the South China Sea, following China’s island-building strategies to assert territorial claims in the contested maritime region. According to a report from The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), high-resolution satellite images indicate that Vietnam has expanded its presence in the Spratly Islands tenfold over the last three years, marking a significant development in its long-standing territorial dispute with China.
This expansion has included the construction of harbors, defensive trenches, and possibly extended runways, reflecting a clear military strategy. These actions, while attracting global attention, notably mirror China’s previous tactics of building artificial islands equipped with military infrastructure to bolster its presence and control in the region.
However, China, which has aggressively enforced its maritime claims, particularly against the Philippines, has remained notably silent on Vietnam’s recent actions, prompting questions about the strategic dynamics shaping the region.
In the past decade, the South China Sea has been a flashpoint for tensions, with several nations including China, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia asserting overlapping territorial claims. The region holds immense strategic and economic value due to its shipping lanes and rich natural resources. Yet, while China has often reacted strongly to actions from other claimant states, its lack of a public response to Vietnam’s moves is striking.
The Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) reported in June 2024 that since November 2023, Vietnam had added 692 new acres of artificial land across ten features in the South China Sea. This brings Vietnam’s total reclaimed land area to approximately 2,360 acres, roughly half of China’s 4,650 acres of reclaimed land. AMTI notes that Vietnam’s recent expansion represents a dramatic shift from three years ago when the country’s total reclamation efforts amounted to just 329 acres. This rapid development suggests that Vietnam is looking to establish a more formidable presence in the region, one that could challenge China’s dominance.
The reclamation work appears to have a clear military focus. According to John Pollock and Damien Symon, writing in a September 2024 report for Chatham House, Vietnam’s new outposts are likely being designed to accommodate long-range military aircraft, signaling a shift towards militarization. The construction of defensive trenches and possibly extended runways indicates that Vietnam may be preparing for potential confrontations or aiming to secure its position amid the intensifying territorial disputes.
China’s muted response to Vietnam’s actions contrasts sharply with its aggressive reactions to other countries in the region, particularly the Philippines. The ongoing dispute over the Second Thomas Shoal has seen China increasingly enforce its claims against Manila, including the use of military-grade water cannons and diplomatic pressure. Yet, Beijing has remained silent about Vietnam’s activities, raising speculation about the strategic calculus behind its inaction.
Pollock and Symon suggest that China’s restraint may be due to its current focus on the Philippines and its desire to avoid opening another front in the South China Sea dispute. Furthermore, they speculate that ideological alignment between China’s leadership and Vietnam’s new government could be influencing Beijing’s decision to remain quiet on this issue, at least for the time being. While Vietnam and China have had a tumultuous relationship over the years, both nations share a communist ideological framework, which may contribute to a more measured approach from China compared to its dealings with other nations in the region.
Another possible explanation for China’s silence is its concern about pushing Vietnam too far into the arms of the United States. Vietnam has historically maintained a balancing act between asserting its territorial claims and avoiding full alignment with major powers like the U.S. However, continued aggression from China could drive Vietnam to seek stronger ties with Washington, which would not be in Beijing’s interest given the broader geopolitical rivalry between China and the U.S.
Vietnam’s rapid expansion in the South China Sea has not come without environmental costs. Similar to China’s methods, Vietnam has employed cutter suction dredging to create its artificial islands. This process, as highlighted by Monica Sato in a December 2023 report for the Center of Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), involves slicing into coral reefs and pumping sediment to build new land. The result is severe damage to the marine ecosystem, with sediment clouds suffocating coral reefs and hindering their regeneration.
The use of cutter suction dredging, which has been employed by China since 2013, is known to have devastating effects on the seabed. The destruction of essential reef structures not only impacts marine biodiversity but also alters the ecological balance of the region. Given the rich marine life and the ecological importance of the South China Sea, these actions could have long-lasting environmental consequences.
While Vietnam’s reclamation activities have drawn comparisons to China’s earlier efforts, the environmental toll of such actions remains a point of contention, as they contribute to the degradation of one of the world’s most biodiverse marine regions.
Vietnam’s land reclamation efforts come alongside a broader strategy of military modernization aimed at bolstering its defenses against potential threats from China. Derek Grossman, in a 2018 article for Asia Policy, noted that Vietnam has focused on modernizing its naval and air forces in recent years, acquiring key military assets such as Russian Kilo-class submarines and Su-30MK2 fighter jets. These acquisitions have significantly enhanced Vietnam’s ability to conduct anti-access/area denial operations, making it more challenging for China to engage in military conflict in the region.
However, Vietnam’s military modernization has not been without challenges. Nguyen Phuong, writing in a July 2021 report for the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, pointed out that Vietnam’s military modernization efforts have slowed considerably since 2016, largely due to budget constraints. These limitations have been exacerbated by Vietnam’s focus on other national priorities such as infrastructure and healthcare, as well as a political environment that prioritizes political propaganda over military action.
Moreover, Vietnam’s anti-corruption campaign, led by the late Communist Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, has disrupted military procurement processes by dismantling corrupt networks within the Vietnam People’s Army (VPA). While the campaign has been lauded for its efforts to root out corruption, it has also had the unintended effect of slowing down Vietnam’s efforts to modernize its military.
Despite these challenges, Vietnam’s recent actions in the South China Sea indicate a clear intent to assert its territorial claims and enhance its strategic position. The construction of military infrastructure on its reclaimed islands suggests that Vietnam is preparing for the possibility of further confrontations with China, even as it seeks to avoid overt military conflict.
Vietnam’s approach to managing tensions with China has been marked by a delicate balancing act. Historically, Vietnam has sought to maintain a pragmatic relationship with its larger neighbor, avoiding direct confrontation while asserting its territorial claims when necessary. In a May 2024 article for the National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR), Nguyen noted that Vietnam has often taken a discreet approach to handling its disputes with China, reflecting a combination of accommodation and assertiveness.
This strategy has allowed Vietnam to navigate its complex relationship with China without escalating tensions to the point of military conflict. However, Vietnam has also sought to strengthen its ties with regional partners, particularly through the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and has increasingly looked to the United States for support in counterbalancing China’s growing influence in the region.
At the same time, China views Vietnam as a pragmatic rival, recognizing the need to maintain a cooperative relationship while prioritizing its territorial interests. China has employed a range of coercive tactics, including gray-zone actions, to test Vietnam’s resolve. However, Beijing has also recalibrated its approach when Vietnam has shown signs of defiance, particularly when it appears that Hanoi may align more closely with the U.S. or other Western powers.
Vietnam’s military expansion in the South China Sea represents a significant development in the ongoing territorial disputes in the region. While China has remained notably silent on Vietnam’s recent reclamation activities, the strategic implications of these actions are far-reaching. Vietnam’s land reclamation and militarization efforts mark a clear attempt to bolster its territorial claims and deter potential aggression from China.
As Vietnam continues to modernize its military and assert its presence in the South China Sea, the geopolitical landscape of the region is becoming increasingly complex. The question remains whether China will continue to tolerate Vietnam’s actions or if the two nations are on a path toward heightened conflict. In the meantime, Vietnam’s pragmatic approach, balancing assertiveness with caution, will likely remain a key element of its strategy as it navigates the turbulent waters of the South China Sea.
