Russian President Vladimir Putin has begun a two-day state visit to India, where he will meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi and attend the annual India–Russia summit—an engagement that carries more geopolitical weight this year than at any point in the past decade. The visit comes as the United States, under President Donald Trump, intensifies pressure on New Delhi to scale back purchases of discounted Russian oil while simultaneously trying to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war through direct talks with Moscow and Kyiv.
Despite the global turbulence, India and Russia continue to describe their partnership as one of the world’s most durable strategic relationships. Their ties date back to the Soviet era and have weathered dramatic geopolitical shifts. Yet this year’s summit is particularly significant: it will test the limits of India’s “strategic autonomy” and Putin’s attempt to show the world that Russia is far from isolated.
At the heart of this week’s discussions is oil. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered sweeping Western sanctions, Moscow began offering deep discounts on crude—a lifeline India eagerly seized. Before 2022, Russia supplied less than 3% of India’s oil imports; by mid-2024, that number had soared to 35%, making Russia one of New Delhi’s top suppliers.
But the Trump administration has sharply criticised India’s purchases, accusing New Delhi of “funding the Kremlin’s war machine.” In October, Washington imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods in retaliation. Indian refiners have since scaled back orders of Russian crude to avoid triggering further penalties. Putin, facing dwindling markets in Europe and tightening sanctions, is expected to push Modi for a renewed commitment on oil imports.
Energy is not the only economic theme. Bilateral trade—driven overwhelmingly by oil—hit a record $68.7 billion in March 2025, compared to just $8.1 billion five years earlier. But the flow is lopsided: Russia exports far more to India than it buys. Modi is expected to press for ways to open Russian markets to Indian goods, from consumer electronics to seafood and garments, which still hold only a marginal footprint inside Russia.
Military cooperation—one of the strongest pillars of the India–Russia relationship—will feature prominently. Reports ahead of the summit indicate that New Delhi is considering major acquisitions, including the next-generation S-500 air defence system and Russia’s Su-57 fifth-generation fighter jet.
India’s recent limited conflict with Pakistan underscored both the indispensability and vulnerabilities of Russian military platforms. Russian-made S-400 air defence systems played a decisive role, yet the war in Ukraine has delayed deliveries of additional systems to India. Modi is expected to seek clear commitments from Putin on timelines and technology transfers.
Although India has been diversifying its defence imports—reducing Russia’s share from 72% a decade ago to 36% today—its armed forces remain heavily reliant on Russian hardware. A sizable portion of India’s 29 air force squadrons operates Russian Sukhoi-30 jets. Delhi is also concerned about Pakistan’s recent purchase of China’s J-35 fifth-generation fighter—a development pushing India to secure comparable capabilities quickly.
For Moscow, India remains one of its largest defence customers. At a time when sanctions have crippled its ability to source critical components, ensuring long-term orders from India is essential.
Putin’s visit comes at a delicate moment for India. Modi has long argued that dialogue—not condemnation—is the only solution to the war in Ukraine. This position has helped India balance relations with Russia while maintaining economic and strategic ties with the West.
But Trump’s return to the White House has disrupted that equilibrium. India–US ties are at their lowest point in years, and Washington’s tariff offensive has rattled policymakers in New Delhi. Meanwhile, European allies have also applied pressure: the German, French and UK ambassadors published a rare joint article this week criticising Russia’s “destabilising” role in Ukraine.
Modi now faces a diplomatic test. He must signal to domestic and international audiences that India will not abandon its historical partner, Russia, while reassuring the West that deepening ties with Moscow will not derail cooperation on trade, technology, and security.
For Putin, the optics are as important as the agreements. Travelling abroad—especially to a major democracy like India—allows him to counter Western narratives that Russia is isolated. His recent summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping and informal meeting with Modi were part of a broader diplomatic effort to promote a “multi-polar world” where Moscow asserts strong ties to Asia and the Global South.
Yet Russia’s pivot eastward also highlights what it has lost. Analysts note that Moscow is now more cut off from Europe than ever—an unprecedented shift after centuries of cultural and political connection. But this week, the Kremlin will lean heavily on themes of India–Russia friendship, mutual respect and shared interests.
Modest outcomes are expected: reaffirmed energy cooperation, progress on defence negotiations, and new discussions on trade diversification. A more ambitious result—such as a major defence package or a breakthrough in trade balancing—could reshape regional dynamics.
For Modi, the goal is clear: preserve strategic autonomy, strengthen a long-standing partnership, and secure India’s interests without alienating the West. For Putin, the stakes are equally high: a strong show of support from India reinforces his geopolitical narrative and bolsters Russia’s economic resilience.
