Taiwan’s upcoming presidential election on January 13, 2024, is the most contested since 2000. The US, involved in two wars in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, is avoiding confrontation in Asia by sending aircraft carrier groups and ammunition to support Israel and large quantities of weapons to the Ukrainian government. This raises concerns in both America and Taiwan about how much assistance it could provide if Xi Jinping decides to attack.
The Biden administration favors a Taiwanese president who avoids potential attacks and Beijing’s control. Taiwan’s strategic location near sea lanes is crucial for international commerce and security. Japan, a US ally, has a greater stake in stability in the Taiwan Strait, as Chinese control could harm its territorial waters and shipping.
Terry Gou, a late entry into the presidential race, is backed by his $7 billion fortune as founder of Hon Hai Precision Industries. His parents fled to Taiwan in 1949, and his father fought for the KMT during the war. Gou believes his extensive business experience makes him ideally suited for the presidency.
Candidates for Taiwanese independence face the challenge of gaining support from voters who reject unification with China while maintaining non-confrontational policies. A recent poll showed only 0.7% of respondents supporting independence as soon as possible, while 35.8% supported maintaining the status quo while working towards it and 44.3% favored forever maintaining it. However, Lai, who claims Taiwan is already an independent state, has rejected the 1992 Consensus and pledged to continue Tsai Ing-wen’s non-confrontational policies.
Hou Yu-ih accepts the 1992 Consensus but objects to both a formal declaration of Taiwan’s independence and China’s offer to rule the country under Beijing’s interpretation of the one-country, two-systems formula. He accepts the need for deterrence against invasion and that Taiwan must deepen collaboration with the United States in areas such as intelligence sharing and regular joint training exercises. Hou has vowed to defend the Republic of China if it were attacked, but did not use the word Taiwan, thereby implicitly endorsing his party’s position on the One China policy.
Hou plans to increase national health insurance spending to 8% from 6.5%, but Lai suggests focusing on specific improvement areas rather than a single spending target, suggesting several areas for Lai to pursue.
Ko Wen-je, a Taiwanese politician, advocates for a middle-of-the-road approach in cross-strait relations, advocating for regular security talks among senior officials from Japan, Taiwan, and the United States. He believes that cutting off communication with China increases the risk of war and has expressed willingness to sign economic agreements with Beijing while also advocating that Taiwan follow the United States in de-risking. Ko has called on China to propose a new framework for engagement with Taiwan that explains what Beijing has to offer and defines what One China means, whether it be political or economic.
Terry Gou, CEO of Foxconn, denounces Taiwan’s independence movement and advocates for de-escalating Sino-American tensions. He supports the 1992 Consensus and positions Taiwan as equidistant from the US and China. Gou has not managed the company since 2019 and resigned from the board in September 2023.
The energy issue in Taiwan is highly controversial, with opponents of nuclear energy arguing that a Fukushima-type meltdown would devastate the much smaller and similarly earthquake-prone island. Proponents point out that without nuclear power, Taiwan would become more vulnerable if it completely depended on imports to keep its heavily trade-dependent economy healthy. Due to a 2016 government decision to phase out nuclear power by 2025, usage has declined from over 20% to about 9% at present.
In 2021, citizens rejected the completion of a partially built nuclear plant, with only Lai vying to make Taiwan a nuclear-free country by 2025. Three other candidates claim the nuclear-free homeland policy has failed, with Hou expressing plans to revive nuclear power, including restarting two decommissioned units, extending a third’s operational period, and evaluating an abandoned fourth plant.
Taiwan, one of the most polled countries in the world, has numerous polling organizations collecting data. Lai has been the consistent front-runner in the election, with Ko and Hou in the mid-to-high twenties and Guo in the low teens. However, Lai’s lead is eroding, and the coalition could block his initiatives and encourage Beijing to court him, as it has done during previous DPP administrations.
The DPP faces criticism from opposition and non-committed voters, with rural citizens accusing the party of neglecting them, urbanites complaining about inflation, affordable housing, and stagnant wages, and the youth vote shifting to the TPP. Supporters argue for social justice programs and accuse the DPP of not acting like a progressive party.
Chinese efforts to influence the election include Chinese fighter jets crossing the median line in the Taiwan Strait, ominous warnings from high military figures, and covert attempts such as disinformation. Carrots include hosting youth delegations to visit China, a plan to make Fujian province a zone for integrated development with Taiwan, encouraging Taiwanese firms to list on Chinese stock exchanges, and supporting innovative ways of cross-strait capital cooperation.
Taiwan’s Ministry of Justice Investigation Bureau seized $354.6 million in illegal remittances to candidates sympathetic to China in October. Taiwanese citizens are easing entry and exit visas, but some are intimidated by China’s threats. Anecdotal evidence suggests that Taiwanes are aware of Hong Kong’s disastrous civil liberties and its warnings about unification.
Taiwan’s Ministry of Justice Investigation Bureau seized $354.6 million in illegal remittances to candidates sympathetic to China in October. Taiwanese citizens are easing entry and exit visas, but some are intimidated by China’s threats. Anecdotal evidence suggests that Taiwanes are aware of Hong Kong’s disastrous civil liberties and its warnings about unification.
At a meeting to discuss cooperation on fielding candidates for the Legislative Yuan, Ko and Hou discussed having one of them become vice-president while the other would be the presidential nominee. The possibility of an alliance at the top was risky due to each man’s healthy ego and his dislike of “mosquitoes, cockroaches, and the KMT.” He founded the TPP as a counterweight to both the KMT and DPP, attracting many supporters, particularly among the young, who were disenchanted with the two.
After much discussion, the two agreed to accept six of the nine major polls but disagreed on who was ahead based on differing interpretations of the margins of error. Former president Ma Ying-jeou stepped in to mediate, summoning Ko and Hou to his office on November 24, the deadline for filing for the election. Only Hou appeared, waiting several hours fruitlessly. Ko later agreed to meet at a hotel and even arrived late as a gaggle of media waited impatiently outside.
Taiwan’s presidential election has been marred by a dramatic failure, with candidates sniping at each other live on television networks. Analysts are scrutinizing the vice-presidential picks of the remaining three candidates, with Lai choosing Hsiao Bi-khim, a highly regarded woman, and Hou choosing pro-unificationist media executive Jaw Shaw-kong. Polls show Lai’s lead shrinking to about one point, with Ko less than four points behind Hou. The election is too close to call, and Beijing’s least bad scenario would be a divided Legislative Yuan, allowing it to work with the opposition.
