Indonesian presidential polls may face a runoff due to the lack of support for frontrunner Prabowo Subianto and his running mate, Gibran Rakabuming Raka. Support for the pair is stagnating at 46-47%, making a runoff in June a possibility. A survey conducted in January by Poltracking showed Prabowo and Gibran supported by 46.9% of respondents, a slight increase from the December survey.
Their closest rivals, Anies Baswedan and Muhaimin Iskandar, gained ground to 26.7% from 23.8% in December. The third pair, Ganjar Pranowo and Mohammad Mahfud MD, saw their popularity drop to 20.2% from 27.6% in December. Indonesia’s presidential election system requires a second round of voting between the top two candidates, called a runoff, if no one wins more than 50% of the votes on Election Day. If a runoff occurs, Anies and his running mate would contest against Prabowo-Gibran, maintaining their current poll positions.
A poll conducted on December 30-Jan. 6 showed results similar to Poltracking, with Prabowo-Gibran at 45.79%, Anies-Muhaimin at 25.47%, and Ganjar-Mahfud at 22.96%. Indikator Politik Executive Director Burhanuddin Muhtadi said that there is a stagnation in the electability of the Prabowo-Gibran pair and that Anies has a bigger chance to qualify with Prabowo if a second round is held.
President Jokowi, who has not publicly endorsed any candidate but is seen favoring the pair that includes his son Gibran, is concerned the election may go to a second round. He held separate meetings early this month with the leaders of the parties that support Prabowo and Gibran, expressed frustration over their stagnant performance, and questioned efforts to boost their electability. Speculation suggests Anies and Ganjar may collaborate to prevent Prabowo’s victory, with political observer Ujang Komarudin predicting Prabowo’s continued struggle to boost popularity.
Indonesian President Prabowo’s image has suffered after two debates among presidential contenders exposed his emotional side, according to research professor of political science at BRIN, a research professor of political science at BRIN. Prabowo’s campaign promise to provide free lunches to students across the country to boost their nutrition intake has been criticized, as has his image after two debates among the presidential contenders.
Anies, who has gained significant ground by appealing to young voters, has featured townhall meetings with students across the country and has gained support from many K-Pop fans who have volunteered to pay for his campaign advertisements. Meanwhile, Ganjar, who was in the number two spot in surveys for most of last year, has seen his popularity drop as the public perceives him as having inconsistent or unclear policies.
Ganjar has criticized the Jokowi government’s performance in some areas and promised to evaluate a controversial jobs law passed last March. Both Jokowi and Ganjar belong to the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP), but Jokowi’s eldest son is the running mate of one of Ganjar’s opponents.
Jokowi faces questions about building a political dynasty by promoting family members and loyalists to government. A controversial ruling by the Constitutional Court allowed President Prabowo’s son, Gibran, to run as vice president alongside Prabowo. This episode, deemed nepotistic, may limit Prabowo’s appeal among the electorate and prevent him from gaining a majority of votes.
