In a significant diplomatic development, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held their first formal talks in five years on October 23, 2024. The meeting, which took place on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, marks a potential turning point in Sino-Indian relations, which had been severely strained since a deadly military clash along their disputed Himalayan border in 2020.
The formal talks are seen as a sign that relations between the two Asian giants—both nuclear powers and home to over a third of the world’s population—are beginning to thaw after years of diplomatic stalemate and border confrontations. The meeting came just days after India and China announced a breakthrough in their four-year military stand-off in the Ladakh region, offering a glimmer of hope for improved ties in the future.
During the talks, President Xi emphasized the importance of strengthening communication and cooperation between India and China, urging the two countries to manage their differences and focus on achieving their respective development goals. Chinese state broadcaster CCTV reported that Xi conveyed to Modi the need for both nations to work toward resolving conflicts and realizing “each other’s development dreams.” His comments suggest a renewed interest from Beijing in stabilizing relations with India after a period of heightened tensions.
Prime Minister Modi echoed these sentiments, acknowledging the importance of keeping dialogue open to avoid future military confrontations and ensuring peace in the region. While the specifics of the dialogue have not been fully disclosed, sources suggest that economic cooperation and border management were key topics.
This exchange was the first formal bilateral meeting between the two leaders since their summit in Mamallapuram, India, in 2019. The talks could potentially open the door for greater collaboration between the two economic powerhouses, which have seen their ties deteriorate sharply following the 2020 border conflict.
Relations between India and China took a severe hit following the June 2020 clash in the Galwan Valley, situated in the disputed Ladakh region. In the deadliest encounter between the two nations in decades, 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese soldiers were killed. The confrontation occurred along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), an ill-defined boundary separating Indian-controlled territory from Chinese-controlled areas in the western Himalayas. Both countries accused each other of violating the LAC, leading to a stand-off that would persist for more than four years.
Following the deadly clash, both India and China deployed tens of thousands of additional troops, artillery, and weapons systems to the remote and inhospitable border region, heightening concerns of a larger conflict. Diplomatic relations between the two countries took a nosedive, with trade and business interactions also suffering as New Delhi took a harder stance against Chinese investments and imposed a range of restrictions on Chinese companies operating in India.
The military stand-off has been one of the most significant challenges to Sino-Indian relations in recent decades. The unresolved territorial dispute has fueled tensions for years, but the Galwan Valley clash marked a dangerous escalation that brought the two countries to the brink of war. It also prompted India to bolster its military capabilities in the region, increase its collaboration with the U.S. and other Indo-Pacific allies, and adopt a more assertive approach in its dealings with Beijing.
Despite the deterioration in relations, there have been several attempts to de-escalate the situation diplomatically. Foreign ministers from India and China have held a series of meetings since 2020, and military commanders from both sides have engaged in multiple rounds of talks. However, a comprehensive resolution to the border issue remained elusive until recent months.
A major breakthrough occurred in October 2024, just two days before the Xi-Modi meeting in Kazan, when New Delhi and Beijing announced that they had reached a deal to resolve the military stand-off. While the specifics of the agreement have not been fully disclosed, reports indicate that both sides have agreed to withdraw some troops from forward positions and create buffer zones to prevent future confrontations.
The successful conclusion of these negotiations created a positive backdrop for the Xi-Modi talks, raising hopes that the two countries may be able to repair their broader relationship, which has been badly damaged over the past four years.
One of the key outcomes of the renewed engagement between Xi and Modi is the potential for increased Chinese investment in India. Since the border clashes, New Delhi has significantly tightened its scrutiny of Chinese investments, blocking major deals and effectively freezing economic cooperation in several sectors. The Indian government has also restricted visa issuances for Chinese nationals, further complicating business ties between the two countries.
However, with the border dispute showing signs of resolution, there is hope that economic relations could improve in the near future. China remains one of India’s largest trading partners, with bilateral trade exceeding $100 billion annually. Many Indian industries, particularly in the technology and manufacturing sectors, are heavily reliant on Chinese imports.
At the same time, India has made it clear that it expects improved border security to be a precondition for normalizing broader ties with Beijing. Indian officials have stated that they would only consider lifting restrictions on Chinese investments and trade once tangible progress is made in resolving the border dispute. The success of Wednesday’s talks between Xi and Modi could therefore serve as a catalyst for deeper economic engagement, provided both sides are able to maintain the momentum generated by recent diplomatic efforts.
The resumption of high-level talks between Xi and Modi is likely to have significant geopolitical implications, not only for the region but also for the broader global order. As two of the world’s largest economies, India and China play a critical role in shaping the future of Asia and the global economy. Their relationship, often characterized by both competition and cooperation, will be a key factor in determining the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.
In recent years, India has sought to diversify its diplomatic and economic partnerships, deepening its ties with the U.S., Japan, and other countries in the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) in response to China’s growing influence in the region. While New Delhi continues to engage with Beijing on a range of issues, it has also aligned itself more closely with like-minded democracies to counterbalance China’s rise.
The Kazan meeting signals that India is still interested in maintaining a stable and pragmatic relationship with China, despite its strategic shift toward the U.S. and its allies. For Beijing, improving relations with India is critical to its broader diplomatic strategy, particularly as it faces increasing pressure from the U.S. and its allies in the Indo-Pacific. Strengthening ties with India could help China avoid the perception of regional isolation and create new opportunities for cooperation on issues like trade, climate change, and regional security.
While the Xi-Modi meeting is a positive step toward improving bilateral relations, significant challenges remain. The border dispute, while de-escalating, is far from fully resolved, and both sides will need to remain committed to dialogue and diplomacy to prevent future flare-ups. Moreover, there are deep-seated mistrust and competing strategic interests that continue to complicate the relationship.
For India, the rise of China as a dominant regional power presents a long-term challenge to its own aspirations of becoming a leading global player. New Delhi is likely to continue its efforts to build alliances with other major powers to counterbalance China’s influence, even as it engages with Beijing diplomatically. Similarly, China is unlikely to alter its broader strategic goals in the region, including its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative, which India has long opposed.
The future of Sino-Indian relations will depend on how both sides manage these competing interests while working to find common ground on key issues. The Kazan meeting may have opened the door to a more constructive dialogue, but the path forward will require sustained efforts on both sides to build trust and address their differences.
