At the G20 summit this week, Chinese President Xi Jinping projected China as a bastion of stability amidst mounting geopolitical uncertainty, as the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House fuels apprehension among Western nations. While Beijing’s diplomatic overtures signal its desire to reassert influence, analysts caution that Western capitals are unlikely to fully embrace China despite the growing unpredictability of US foreign policy.
Xi took center stage at the high-stakes summit of the world’s 20 largest economies in Rio de Janeiro, engaging in bilateral talks with leaders from Britain, France, Germany, and Australia. China framed these meetings as opportunities to strengthen pragmatic ties, casting itself as a reliable partner amidst global turbulence.
The backdrop is the growing anxiety over Trump’s re-election, with his isolationist tendencies and erratic diplomacy during his first term leaving scars on international alliances. Trump’s rhetoric during his campaign has only amplified concerns, as he signaled a return to disruptive trade policies and a more insular US approach to global security.
“Beijing is positioning itself as the status quo player, an anchor of stability in an uncertain world,” said Shahar Hameiri, a professor of international relations at Australia’s University of Queensland. However, the reality of strained ties between China and many Western nations complicates this narrative.
China’s relations with Western powers have been increasingly fraught in recent years. Trade disputes, human rights concerns, and Beijing’s assertive sovereignty claims in East Asia have eroded goodwill. The COVID-19 pandemic further deepened mistrust, with accusations against Beijing over its handling of the crisis and transparency regarding the virus’s origins.
“The optimism of the past decade – fueled by China’s meteoric economic rise and the hope of a political opening – is gone,” said Pradeep Taneja, a senior lecturer in Asian Studies at Australia’s University of Melbourne. “Today’s engagements are more matter-of-fact, driven by pragmatic self-interest.”
Taneja noted a stark contrast to the warmth Western nations showed China seven or eight years ago. “That warmth is unlikely to return,” he remarked, underscoring the fundamentally transactional nature of current interactions.
Meanwhile, Trump’s impending second term could introduce a volatile dynamic, forcing Western countries to recalibrate their strategies. His disdain for multilateralism, NATO, and international trade norms during his first presidency had a destabilizing effect on global diplomacy. With his re-election, many fear a reprise.
Joe Biden’s tenure as US President was marked by efforts to restore trust among traditional allies following the disruptions of Trump’s first term. Yet, Biden’s focus on coalition-building now risks being undone. Trump’s campaign rhetoric targeting NATO and promises of a renewed trade war with China threaten to further fray alliances.
Some European leaders, wary of Trump’s erratic style, have called for reducing reliance on Washington and asserting more control over their affairs. French President Emmanuel Macron has been vocal in advocating for Europe’s “strategic autonomy,” signaling a pivot towards greater self-reliance.
Hameiri highlighted a growing trend among Western nations to hedge their bets. “Governments are trying not to put all their eggs in one basket,” he explained. However, a grand realignment of alliances remains unlikely due to enduring dependencies on US technology and security frameworks.
“Japan, Australia, and NATO partners are deeply integrated into the US-led security architecture,” Hameiri noted. “Replacing that is not a realistic option in the short term.”
Despite China’s attempts to portray itself as a stabilizing force, it faces significant hurdles in building enduring alliances. Beijing’s overseas investments through initiatives like the Belt and Road have fostered economic ties but have not translated into formal alliances. Critics argue that China’s assertive policies, coupled with its human rights record, deter deeper engagement.
Even in the face of Trump’s unpredictability, Western nations appear cautious about aligning too closely with Beijing. For instance, Xi’s overtures at the G20 summit were met with polite diplomacy but lacked the warmth of past engagements.
“Western nations are engaging with China out of necessity rather than trust,” Taneja observed. He added that concerns over trade dependencies and Beijing’s strategic ambitions continue to loom large in these relationships.
Chinese state media has doubled down on portraying the country as a beacon of multilateralism and global leadership. The nationalist Global Times lauded Xi’s Brazil trip as a source of “precious certainty” for the world while lambasting the US for its “humanitarian disasters” in Gaza and other conflict zones.
This narrative aligns with Beijing’s long-standing critique of US unilateralism, which it portrays as a destabilizing force. However, analysts caution that such messaging is unlikely to sway skeptical Western leaders.
Ja Ian Chong, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore, warned that a second Trump term could weaken global institutions like the United Nations and the World Trade Organization. “But it’s unlikely to drive a wholesale shift in alliances,” he added.
World leaders are arguably better prepared for Trump’s return, having experienced the shocks of his first term. His foreign policy, characterized by abrupt decisions and ideological pivots, disrupted traditional norms but also prompted a reevaluation of long-standing strategies.
“There will always be elements of crisis under Trump,” Taneja said. “But he is no longer an unknown quantity.”
This familiarity could help leaders navigate the challenges of a second Trump administration more effectively. Yet, the implications for global governance and multilateral cooperation remain uncertain.
As the G20 summit concludes, the global order stands at a crossroads. Xi’s efforts to position China as a stabilizing force underscore Beijing’s ambitions but also highlight the complexities of forging trust with Western nations wary of its intentions. Simultaneously, the specter of a renewed Trump presidency looms large, threatening to upend the fragile balance of global diplomacy.
For now, Western leaders appear committed to a pragmatic approach, engaging with both Beijing and Washington while seeking to reduce vulnerabilities. Whether this strategy succeeds in mitigating the risks of an increasingly unpredictable world remains to be seen.
