As China’s Communist Party (CCP) concluded its recent third plenum, analysts suggest the possibility of Xi Jinping securing an unprecedented fourth term as the nation’s leader is growing stronger. This speculation arises from the introduction of a 2029 deadline to achieve the sweeping commitments made during the reform-focused meeting, signaling Xi’s potential plans to stay in power beyond 2027.
Observers, including Dr. Wu Guoguang, a senior fellow on Chinese politics at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis (CCA), see the 2029 deadline as a clear indicator of Xi’s intentions. Dr. Wu describes the timeline as a “tiny signal” of Xi’s preparation for a fourth term. He questioned why the CCP publicly specified this deadline, suggesting it was unnecessary unless there were plans for Xi’s continued leadership.
Dr. Wu elaborated on this during a CCA-hosted webinar on July 25, where experts dissected the context, contents, and implications of the third plenum. The discussion emphasized the economic reforms from the meeting, particularly the push towards high-tech advancements as a solution to domestic issues like unemployment and weak consumption.
2029 Deadline: Strategic Signal
“Beijing sees technology as a magic potion for all those problems,” stated Dr. Lizzi C Lee, a fellow on the Chinese economy at CCA. The third plenum produced a 5,000-word communique and a comprehensive 22,000-word resolution document outlining over 300 reform pledges across various sectors, with a significant focus on high-tech developments.
The plenum’s document highlighted the goal of completing these reforms by 2029, coinciding with the 80th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China. Analysts interpret this timeline as an indication that Xi aims to stay in power to oversee these reforms, beginning a potential fourth term in 2027 and extending through 2032.
Dr. Chen Gang, assistant director and senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s East Asian Institute (EAI), also sees the 2029 goal as indicative of Xi’s plans for continued leadership. “The plenum proposed over 300 reforms to be completed by 2029, indicating plans for General Secretary Xi Jinping’s continued leadership into a potential fourth term,” he noted, citing the need for breakthroughs in reform, development, and technology.
Japan-based news outlet Nikkei Asia reported on possible strategies behind publishing the 2029 reform goal. One theory is that Xi could use the deadline to justify his continued leadership, especially given the proximity to the goal and the challenges China faces both domestically and internationally.
The third plenum’s commitments are seen as efforts to navigate through troubled foreign and domestic waters. China faces heavy local government debt burdens, a prolonged property crisis, and a shrinking workforce, while also contending with growing geopolitical risks. These challenges come as China aims to achieve its goal of “basically achieving socialist modernisation” and becoming a “medium-developed country” by 2035.
“China’s big economic goal is to achieve Chinese-style modernisation,” said Dr. Lee. To hit this target, China needs to grow at about 4.5-5 percent annually. However, recent data suggests that growth might dip below 4 percent next year.
China’s latest GDP figures, released on July 15, revealed a 4.7 percent growth in Q2 2024, down from the previous quarter’s 5.3 percent, marking the lowest quarterly growth figure since early 2023. Analysts, including Dr. Chen from EAI, believe this slower growth could become the norm in the coming years.
To sustain economic growth, China is placing a significant emphasis on technology. “There’s a massive emphasis on technology innovation,” Dr. Lee highlighted, referring to terms like “new quality productive forces” coined by Xi last year. The third plenum document extensively mentions tech-related initiatives, contrasting with the relatively muted mentions of property and housing.
This focus on technology is seen as a clear statement that manufacturing will remain central to Chinese development. “It’s a policy of doubling down on science and technology, on industrial policy, linking the two,” said Mr. Bert Hofman, a professor at EAI and an honorary senior fellow on the Chinese economy at CCA.
However, analysts caution that the focus on technology could have unintended consequences. Dr. Lee warned that it might widen income inequality, undermining Xi’s “common prosperity” push. Despite its importance in Xi’s economic philosophy, “common prosperity” was not prominently featured in the third plenum document.
China’s reluctance to use traditional stimuli to support household consumption has also made economic recovery uncertain. Trade tensions could further complicate matters, with accusations of Chinese overcapacity leading to tariffs from the US and Europe.
Xi’s Legacy and China’s Future
The third plenum document suggests that China’s leadership is aware of these challenges. “There’s an emphasis on China adapting by relocating supply chains to emerging markets and shifting the economy towards domestic consumption,” Dr. Lee noted. Nonetheless, the effectiveness of these policies remains uncertain as geopolitical tensions rise. Analysts are also concerned about whether China’s focus on national security and self-sufficiency will attract or deter foreign investment.
As Xi Jinping positions himself for a potential fourth term, the future of China hangs in the balance. The sweeping reforms and high-tech initiatives outlined in the third plenum aim to steer the nation through economic and geopolitical challenges. However, the success of these plans will depend on various factors, including domestic economic performance and international relations.
Xi’s continued leadership could provide the stability needed to achieve these ambitious goals, but it also raises questions about the concentration of power and its implications for China’s political landscape. As the world watches, the decisions made in the coming years will shape the future of China’s economy, society, and global standing.
