French political parties were racing on Monday to field candidates and discuss possible alliances following President Emmanuel Macron’s shock decision to call a snap election after a bruising loss in Sunday’s vote for the European Parliament. With the first round scheduled for June 30, less than three weeks away, and the run-off on July 7, there is little time to convince voters to back them.

Macron’s Gamble and Immediate Reactions

President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call for a snap election has taken the French political landscape by storm. After losing significant ground in the European Parliament elections, where his party was trounced by Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN), Macron’s gamble is seen as a desperate attempt to regain control. The announcement has caused the euro to drop and led to a fall in French stocks and government bonds.

“We’re still in shock,” Emmanuel Pellerin, a lawmaker from Macron’s Renaissance party, told Reuters. “Everything points to the RN winning a relative or absolute majority. But that forces the French to think about what is at stake.”

RN leaders were holding talks with Marion Marechal, of the smaller far-right Reconquete party, for a possible deal that could see her join them back in some form. Marechal is Le Pen’s niece and used to be a prominent member of her party before they fell out.

Divided Left and Potential Alliances

The French left, comprising the hard left LFI (France Unbowed), Communists, Socialists, and Greens, is also scrambling to form alliances. Manon Aubry of LFI emphasized the urgency, stating, “We don’t have time to procrastinate. The objective is to be able to meet again, to build the future and above all to go and win.”

A source close to Macron mentioned that the 46-year-old leader, whose power has been diminished since losing his absolute majority in parliament two years ago, saw a chance to regain a majority by taking everyone by surprise. However, if Le Pen’s party does take over, the source speculated that the next three years would demonstrate their incompetence to voters and undermine their bid for the presidency in 2027.

Marine Le Pen’s party, along with the RN’s 28-year-old leader Jordan Bardella, faces the challenge of transforming their popularity into a win at home. The upcoming vote is likely to revolve around discontent with Macron’s style of governance, cost of living issues, and immigration policies. However, it also questions whether the RN can be trusted to run a major European government.

An unofficial poll from December showed the RN on track to double or triple its score and possibly obtain a majority. However, political analysts from Eurasia Group predict a hung parliament and stalled reforms as the most likely scenario. A source in the conservative Les Republicains (LR) party indicated that LR would struggle to pull itself together by June 30, with many voters likely to shift their allegiance to Macron or Le Pen.

Implications for Macron and French Politics

Even if the eurosceptic, anti-immigration RN secures a majority in parliament, Macron would remain president for three more years and retain control over defense and foreign policy. However, he would lose the power to set the domestic agenda, which includes economic policy, security, immigration, and finances. This shift could impact other policies, such as aid to Ukraine, as parliamentary backing would be necessary to finance any support as part of France’s budget.

The early election comes just before the July 26 start of the Paris Olympics, a time when international attention will be focused on France. Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire emphasized the significance of the upcoming election, calling it “the most consequential parliamentary election for France and for the French in the history of the Fifth Republic.”

Far-Right Policies and Market Reactions

The RN has proposed a range of policies, including higher public spending despite already significant levels of French debt, potentially raising funding costs at banks. The party also aims to expel more migrants, stop family reunification, restrict childcare benefits to French citizens, give French nationals preference in access to social housing and jobs, and withdraw residency for migrants who are out of work for more than a year.

The euro fell by as much as 0.6% in early European trade, while Paris blue-chip stocks dropped by 1.6% at the opening, led by steep losses in banks such as BNP Paribas and Societe Generale.As the snap election looms, French political parties are in a race against time to strategize and rally support. Macron’s bold gamble has added an unpredictable twist to the political landscape, offering the far-right a tangible shot at power while also mobilizing the left and center-right to form counter-alliances. The results of this election could reshape the trajectory of French politics and its role in the European Union for years to come.