On September 25, 2024, China marked a critical milestone in its strategic military capabilities with the successful test-firing of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), which splashed down in the Pacific Ocean after traversing nearly 12,000 kilometers (7,460 miles). This rare publicized event, the first in over four decades, has sent ripples across the international community, highlighting China’s rapidly advancing missile technology and its ability to assert its presence on the global stage.
The missile was launched from a military site on Hainan Island, located in China’s southernmost province, at 8:44 a.m. Beijing time. After traveling across vast distances, including passing near the Philippines and U.S. military bases on Guam, it finally splashed down in the waters near the Marquesas Islands, part of French Polynesia in the Pacific Ocean. Analysts believe that this strategic demonstration was a carefully calculated move aimed at signaling Beijing’s growing missile capabilities amid escalating regional tensions.
The last time China conducted such a test was in 1980, when a DF-5 missile traversed over 8,000 kilometers. This latest test represents a significant leap in China’s technological prowess and underscores its ambitions to project military power well beyond its borders.
Missile: Likely a DF-31 Variant
While the Chinese government has not officially disclosed the missile model involved in this test, military experts initially speculated that it could have been the Dong Feng-41 (DF-41), China’s longest-range and most powerful ICBM. However, upon further analysis, it became clear that the missile was more likely a variant of the DF-31, particularly the DF-31AG, a slightly less powerful but equally formidable system within China’s expanding missile arsenal.
Open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysts, including Rick Joe, have pointed out that the missile’s trajectory and flight pattern aligned with those of the DF-31 series, especially the advanced DF-31AG. Although images or videos of the launch were not publicly released, OSINT assessments concluded that the test demonstrated several hallmarks of the DF-31AG’s capabilities, including its mobile launch platform designed to operate in difficult terrain.
The DF-31AG is no ordinary missile. It represents a potent tool in China’s strategic arsenal, designed not just for power projection but also for operational flexibility. With an estimated range of over 12,000 kilometers, the missile can strike targets deep within the continental United States, a capability that underscores the growing threat perception among China’s adversaries.
The DF-31AG, developed by the China Aerospace Science Corporation (CASC), can carry multiple nuclear warheads, making it a critical component of China’s nuclear deterrence strategy. Its mobile transport-erector-launcher (TEL), produced by the Tai’an Special Vehicle Company, is specifically designed to be highly mobile, providing the missile system with increased survivability against enemy counterattacks. This wheeled TEL system can traverse rugged, unpaved terrain, allowing the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to effectively conceal and distribute its missile assets.
According to Ankit Panda, a nuclear policy analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, this test underscores China’s growing confidence in the DF-31AG’s operational readiness. “The DF-31AG represents a formidable leap in China’s nuclear capabilities, particularly in terms of its mobility and versatility. This test reaffirms China’s focus on ensuring that its strategic forces are capable of withstanding first strikes while retaining the ability to retaliate,” Panda said.
The successful launch of an ICBM capable of reaching the U.S. mainland has ignited concerns in Washington and across the Asia-Pacific region. The timing of the test coincides with rising tensions between China and several of its neighbors, particularly Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines, as well as increased diplomatic and military confrontations with the United States.
As China continues to expand its military footprint, the launch can be interpreted as a message aimed squarely at the U.S. and its allies. With China asserting claims over vast areas of the South China Sea, as well as disputes with Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands and ongoing friction with Taiwan, this test highlights Beijing’s willingness to assert its military capabilities amid these territorial conflicts.
Military analysts and regional observers have noted that the missile’s flight path, which took it near the Philippines and Guam, was likely intended to underscore China’s capacity to strike U.S. military installations in the Asia-Pacific region. Guam, in particular, serves as a key strategic base for the United States, housing critical military assets, including long-range bombers, missile defense systems, and naval forces. By conducting the test close to these areas, China is signaling its ability to neutralize U.S. military infrastructure in the event of a regional conflict.
The test also comes amid a broader modernization of China’s nuclear forces. According to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, China’s DF-31 series, including the DF-31A and DF-31AG variants, are central to its long-term strategic plans. While the DF-31AG lacks the sheer power of the DF-41, it still has the range to strike deep within U.S. territory, providing China with a credible second-strike capability—a key factor in deterring potential aggression.
China’s Missile Program
China’s ICBM program has undergone significant changes since the first test of the DF-5 in 1980. That test was a watershed moment for China, marking its entry into the exclusive club of nations capable of launching long-range ballistic missiles. However, in the decades since, China has quietly and methodically advanced its missile technology, culminating in the development of solid-fuel, road-mobile systems like the DF-31.
The DF-31, first introduced into service in 2006, was China’s first solid-fuel, road-mobile ICBM, a significant improvement over the liquid-fuel DF-5. With a range of approximately 7,200 kilometers (4,470 miles), the DF-31 was an important step forward but fell short of being able to reach the continental United States. However, as China continued to develop the DF-31 family, newer variants such as the DF-31A and DF-31AG extended the range to over 13,000 kilometers (8,078 miles), bringing key U.S. cities within range.
One of the most notable features of the DF-31AG is its ability to launch from rugged, off-road terrain. This gives the PLA enhanced flexibility and survivability, as it complicates efforts by adversaries to track and target China’s missile forces. Fu Qianshao, a former PLA equipment specialist, has remarked that while the DF-31 had the potential for intercontinental capabilities for years, it had not been fully tested across its entire operational range until now. This test was therefore a crucial validation of the missile’s capabilities and marked a new chapter in China’s strategic deterrence.
The geopolitical implications of this test cannot be overstated. In recent years, China has ramped up its efforts to modernize its military, pouring billions of dollars into the development of advanced missile systems, naval power, and space capabilities. This test-firing is a tangible manifestation of those investments, and it has reverberated throughout the global strategic community.
In the context of U.S.-China relations, this event adds another layer of complexity to an already fraught relationship. The United States has repeatedly voiced concerns over China’s growing military capabilities, particularly in the areas of missile development and nuclear deterrence. This test will likely prompt further scrutiny from Washington, potentially leading to increased tensions in the Asia-Pacific region as both nations vie for strategic dominance.
Furthermore, the launch serves as a reminder to regional powers such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia that China is rapidly becoming a force to be reckoned with in terms of missile technology. For decades, the United States and Russia dominated the global missile landscape, but China’s growing prowess, as evidenced by this test, is shifting the balance of power.
China’s test-firing of an ICBM into the Pacific Ocean on September 25, 2024, represents a bold statement of its growing military and strategic capabilities. With the missile likely being a DF-31AG variant, China has demonstrated its ability to strike distant targets, including those within the United States. The test not only validates the missile’s operational readiness but also signals Beijing’s determination to assert its military presence amid rising regional tensions.
As the world watches closely, this event is likely to reshape military calculations in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond, adding another layer of complexity to the evolving geopolitical landscape. Whether this leads to a further escalation of tensions or prompts diplomatic efforts to de-escalate remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: China’s military modernization is advancing at a pace that few nations can afford to ignore.
