Serbia took the international defense community by surprise when it announced its intention to spend €2.7 billion (RM12.88 billion) on the acquisition of 12 Rafale fighter jets from France’s Dassault Aviation.
This move marked a sharp deviation from Serbia’s historical reliance on military equipment from Russia and China, raising eyebrows both in the region and among global military observers. Given Serbia’s longstanding military ties with Moscow and Beijing, the decision to opt for French-made aircraft appeared to signal a broader political realignment.
Serbia’s shift toward European-made military hardware is widely interpreted as part of a strategic move to strengthen its ties with the European Union (EU), with which the Balkan nation has been eager to cultivate deeper relationships. At the same time, the decision has sparked intense debate, especially as Serbia recently expressed interest in joining the BRICS alliance, an economic bloc dominated by Russia and China. This delicate balancing act has left analysts questioning the broader implications for Serbia’s geopolitical ambitions.
Serbia’s defense sector has traditionally depended on Russian and Chinese technology, from aircraft to missile systems. The decision to purchase 12 Rafale fighter jets, each a cutting-edge multirole aircraft capable of air-to-air combat, reconnaissance, and ground-attack missions, represents a significant departure from this norm.
For the Serbian government, this procurement is not only about acquiring modern fighter jets but also part of a broader strategy to modernize its military and align itself more closely with European defense standards. According to Serbian officials, the Rafale fighters will bring Serbia’s air force into the modern era, replacing the aging fleet of MiG-29s that have long been the backbone of its aerial capabilities.
Beyond the purely military considerations, Serbia’s decision is widely seen as a political maneuver aimed at accelerating its bid for EU membership. As a candidate country for EU accession, Serbia has faced pressure to demonstrate its commitment to aligning with European values and standards, including modernizing its defense capabilities. Strengthening military ties with France, a key EU member, could be viewed as an important signal of Serbia’s intent to move away from its historical reliance on Russia.
Joining the EU has long been one of Serbia’s foreign policy objectives. Membership in the bloc would bring significant economic and political benefits, including access to the EU’s single market and funding for infrastructure and development. However, Serbia’s EU accession process has been fraught with difficulties, particularly in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
One of the main obstacles Serbia faces in its EU bid is its reluctance to impose sanctions on Russia. While Serbia has condemned the invasion of Ukraine, it has resisted calls from the EU to adopt the sanctions regime imposed on Moscow. The Rafale deal, therefore, represents a calculated attempt to demonstrate Serbia’s commitment to European integration without fully severing its ties with Russia.
Serbia’s recent overtures toward the BRICS bloc—comprised of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—further complicate its geopolitical trajectory. In early October, Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin stated that BRICS offers a “genuine alternative” to EU membership, citing the less stringent membership conditions compared to those imposed by the EU. The EU has been clear that candidate countries must adopt its policies, including sanctions against Russia, if they wish to become members. For Serbia, this requirement presents a significant hurdle.
BRICS, by contrast, has no such political or economic conditions. As an emerging economic bloc that seeks to challenge the dominance of Western-led financial institutions, BRICS offers a different form of partnership, one that aligns more closely with Serbia’s traditional allies, Russia and China.
However, joining BRICS would present a significant conflict of interest in light of Serbia’s deal to purchase the Rafale jets from France. France, as a leading member of the EU and NATO, might view Serbia’s BRICS membership as a sign of shifting allegiances. It is unclear how France would react if Serbia were to align itself more closely with a bloc that includes its geopolitical rivals.
Another layer of complexity in Serbia’s Rafale acquisition stems from the challenge of integrating Western military technology into an air defense system that is deeply rooted in Russian and Chinese platforms. In recent years, Serbia has purchased advanced air defense systems, including the Chinese HQ-22 and the Russian Pantsir S1, which are designed to work with Russian fighter jets, such as the MiG-29s that currently form the backbone of Serbia’s air force.
The Rafale, while technologically superior to many of its competitors, may face compatibility issues with Serbia’s existing defense infrastructure. Integrating the Rafale into a military framework that includes Chinese drones, Russian air defense systems, and legacy MiG-29 aircraft will likely require significant investment in technology and training.
The procurement of Rafale jets could also complicate Serbia’s close military ties with China. Serbia’s recent military acquisitions from China include six armed CH-92A drones and 18 missiles, which have significantly enhanced its unmanned aerial capabilities. China has also been a key partner in Serbia’s broader economic strategy through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), under which Serbia has received billions in investment for infrastructure projects.
As Serbia moves forward with the Rafale purchase, it may find itself walking a delicate tightrope, trying to balance the modernization of its air force with the political and logistical challenges of maintaining strong defense ties with Russia and China.
For Serbia, the choice between aligning more closely with BRICS or continuing its pursuit of EU membership is not merely an economic decision—it carries profound political, military, and diplomatic implications. Joining BRICS would signal a shift in Serbia’s foreign policy, one that moves away from the West and toward a Eurasian-centric alliance led by China and Russia.
The BRICS bloc offers Serbia the potential for deeper economic collaboration with some of the world’s largest emerging markets. For a country that has struggled with economic stagnation and high unemployment, the prospect of closer ties with the BRICS economies is undoubtedly attractive. Moreover, Serbia could leverage its BRICS membership to gain access to alternative sources of investment, potentially reducing its dependence on the EU.
However, such a move could also undermine Serbia’s long-term ambitions of joining the EU. The EU remains Serbia’s largest trading partner, and membership in the bloc would provide significant economic benefits, including access to development funds and the single market. Moreover, EU membership offers a framework for governance and rule of law reforms that could further integrate Serbia into the European political and economic sphere.
As Serbia weighs its options, defense analysts have pointed out that it could also consider alternative fighter jet options from Russia or China, both of which offer competitive 4.5-generation aircraft. Russia’s Su-35 and China’s J-10C are advanced multirole fighters that would integrate more seamlessly with Serbia’s existing air defense systems.
The Su-35, in particular, would offer Serbia a modern fighter jet with capabilities comparable to the Rafale, but without the potential political fallout that could arise from aligning too closely with the West. The Su-35 is already in service with several countries that have strong military ties with Russia, and Serbia’s longstanding relationship with Moscow could make this a more politically viable option.
China’s J-10C, another contender, would also fit more easily into Serbia’s existing defense framework. As Serbia continues to build its defense ties with China, acquiring the J-10C could further strengthen the military partnership between the two countries while providing Serbia with a modern, capable fighter jet at a lower cost than the Rafale.
Serbia’s decision to acquire 12 Rafale fighter jets from France has opened up a new chapter in its geopolitical strategy, one that reflects its desire to modernize its military and deepen its ties with the European Union. However, the move has also raised critical questions about Serbia’s long-term strategic direction. The potential conflict between pursuing closer relations with BRICS—an economic bloc dominated by Russia and China—and maintaining its EU ambitions underscores the complex balancing act that Serbia faces.
