Moldova voted in favor of joining the European Union (EU) by a razor-thin margin, setting the country on a historic course towards Western integration despite deep divisions and allegations of Russian meddling.
With 99.2 percent of votes counted as of late Monday morning, 50.3 percent of Moldovans voted to amend the constitution to pave the way for EU membership, while 49.7 percent opposed the move. The slim victory for the pro-EU camp, determined by just a few thousand votes, capped a tense and dramatic vote-counting process that saw “no” in the lead for much of the night.
The referendum result, which was closely followed across Europe, reflected the profound divide within Moldova, a small Eastern European country with a population of around 2.6 million. For hours, it appeared the pro-Russian forces might claim victory, as results from within Moldova showed a majority opposing EU membership. However, the tide shifted dramatically as ballots cast by the country’s sizable diaspora — particularly those living in Europe, the U.S., and Canada — were counted late into the night.
At one point, with more than 90 percent of the vote tallied, the “no” campaign held a nearly 10-point lead, raising alarms among pro-EU officials and supporters. In a tense midnight press conference, pro-Western President Maia Sandu blamed the early results on “foreign forces” attempting to influence the outcome, a reference to Moscow’s alleged interference.
Yet as the hours passed and the votes from Moldovans abroad were added to the tally, the “yes” campaign closed the gap. By early Monday, the pro-EU side eked out a narrow victory, clinching a win that many hailed as a triumph for democracy and Moldova’s future in the EU.
The diaspora vote proved to be the decisive factor in the referendum, with hundreds of thousands of Moldovans living abroad casting their ballots in favor of EU membership. These voters, many of whom reside in EU member states, overwhelmingly supported the move towards European integration, seeing it as a path to better economic opportunities, governance reforms, and stability for their homeland.
“The diaspora has spoken, and they have spoken clearly in favor of a European future for Moldova,” said Ana Mocanu, a political analyst based in Chișinău. “Their influence was crucial, and without their votes, the result would have been very different.”
Moldova’s diaspora, which includes an estimated 1 million citizens living outside the country, has long played a significant role in shaping the country’s political landscape. Many members of the diaspora fled Moldova’s economic challenges and political instability in search of better opportunities in Western Europe and beyond. As the referendum neared, pro-EU activists worked tirelessly to mobilize these voters, aware of their potential to swing the outcome.
As the final results trickled in, allegations of Russian interference in the referendum took center stage. Moscow, which has long opposed Moldova’s pivot toward the West, was accused of launching a well-funded campaign to sway the vote in favor of the “no” side. According to Moldovan officials and Western observers, Russian operatives funneled cash through proxies to ordinary voters and used social media platforms to stoke fears about the consequences of EU membership, particularly the possibility of conflict with Russia.
President Sandu, who has been a vocal advocate for EU membership, pointed directly at Moscow’s actions during her midnight press conference, accusing Russia of attempting to undermine the democratic process in Moldova. “We have seen foreign forces, particularly Russia, using propaganda and financial influence to try and sway this vote,” she said. “But the will of the Moldovan people has prevailed.”
Russian interference in Moldova is not a new phenomenon. Moscow has long seen the country as part of its sphere of influence and has frequently worked to stymie attempts by Moldovan leaders to move closer to the West. In recent years, Russia has used a mix of economic pressure, political manipulation, and disinformation campaigns to keep Moldova from deepening ties with the EU and NATO.
Despite these efforts, Moldova’s pro-EU forces managed to rally enough support to win the referendum, albeit by the slimmest of margins.
For pro-European Union forces in Moldova and beyond, the result was hailed as a historic victory. Siegfried Mureșan, a Romanian Member of the European Parliament (MEP) and the chair of the EU’s liaison committee working on Moldova’s accession, called the outcome “a victory for the people of the Republic of Moldova and a defeat for Russia.”
“I will ensure that we, as the European Union, respect the will of the Moldovan people expressed in the referendum and provide all the necessary support for the EU accession process,” Mureșan added.
The victory clears the way for Moldova to amend its constitution, enshrining the principle of EU membership and accelerating the country’s ongoing negotiations to join the bloc. Officials in Chișinău have set a target date of 2030 for full EU membership, a goal that President Sandu and her government are eager to achieve. The success of the referendum is expected to bolster Moldova’s case in accession talks, as well as encourage Brussels to commit to a concrete timeline for the country’s entry.
Despite the narrow win, the path ahead for Moldova is fraught with challenges. The referendum has laid bare the deep divisions within the country, where a significant portion of the population remains skeptical of EU membership and retains strong ties to Russia. In the predominantly Russian-speaking region of Gagauzia and the breakaway territory of Transnistria, opposition to European integration remains strong.
The vote also exposed the weaknesses in Moldova’s political landscape, where corruption, poverty, and weak institutions continue to hinder progress. Pro-EU leaders, including President Sandu, have promised sweeping reforms to address these issues, but many Moldovans remain doubtful about the government’s ability to deliver.
“We’ve won this battle, but there are many more to come,” said Elena Popescu, a pro-EU activist in Chișinău. “The divisions in this country are real, and we need to work hard to bring everyone together on this journey toward the EU.”
Adding to the political uncertainty, Moldova now faces a second-round runoff in its presidential election, which was held simultaneously with the referendum. President Sandu, who secured around 42 percent of the vote, will face off against pro-Russian candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo in the final round.
Stoianoglo, the country’s former prosecutor general, ran on a platform opposing EU integration and advocating for stronger ties with Russia. His strong performance in the first round underscores the persistence of pro-Russian sentiment in Moldova and raises the stakes for the runoff, which is expected to be fiercely contested.
Political analysts predict that the outcome of the presidential election could have a significant impact on Moldova’s future direction, particularly if Stoianoglo manages to rally the anti-EU vote. A victory for Stoianoglo would likely complicate Moldova’s accession process and could even trigger a political crisis.
