In a notable expansion of military partnerships, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has intensified its military exchanges with Belarus, aiming to study the warfare strategies Russia has deployed in Ukraine. Through Belarus, an ally of Russia, China is exploring Russian-developed tactics such as hybrid warfare, drone operations, and urban assault methods, insights which have gained significant relevance due to the ongoing conflict. The relationship between Belarus and China has grown amid increasing global tensions, signaling a strategic shift in military alliances and methodologies.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) recently published an analysis underscoring these developments, highlighting how Belarus has become a focal point for China in observing and potentially adopting combat techniques employed by Russian forces. Given Belarus’s status as a Russian ally with considerable proximity to Ukraine, it stands as a unique conduit for military knowledge sharing, particularly between Russia, China, and Central Asian nations. With recent joint military exercises involving China, Belarus, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan, Beijing is clearly signaling its intent to broaden its military competencies.
The alliance between China and Belarus has been underpinned by increasing levels of military exchange, with high-level Chinese military representatives actively participating in exercises on Belarusian soil. Major General Vadim Denisenko, Commander of Belarusian Special Operations Forces, confirmed that military officials from China, as well as from Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, have participated in training exercises over the past few months. These exercises covered hybrid warfare tactics, urban assault techniques, and advanced drone warfare—critical components of the evolving battlefield.
This burgeoning partnership suggests that China, like other non-Western states, views Belarus as a valuable intermediary to access Russian military expertise. Analysts suggest that China’s motives are not necessarily tied to any direct involvement in Ukraine; rather, China is cultivating an understanding of contemporary military strategies that could bolster its national defense posture.
Russia’s operations in Ukraine have highlighted several military innovations and tactics that are of strategic interest to China.
- Hybrid Warfare: Russia’s approach in Ukraine has involved a blend of conventional forces, cyber operations, and disinformation campaigns. This layered strategy offers a model for countries like China, which have also invested in sophisticated information warfare capabilities.
- Drone Warfare: Drones have been integral in reconnaissance, target acquisition, and direct attacks within Ukraine. As drone warfare becomes more sophisticated, countries including China are prioritizing this technology to enhance situational awareness and strike precision.
- Urban Combat Techniques: Urban warfare has been a defining feature of the Ukraine conflict, prompting an emphasis on trench clearing, building breaches, and other close-quarters tactics. Chinese forces, which have traditionally focused on conventional battlefield tactics, could incorporate these lessons to prepare for potential future conflicts in densely populated regions.
Military experts argue that China’s observation and absorption of these Russian-origin tactics will give it valuable insights that could redefine its conventional military capabilities, as well as its approach to hybrid conflict scenarios.
The collaboration between China and Belarus is part of a broader network of non-Western military alliances, suggesting a recalibration of military strategies across Eurasia. Central Asian countries such as Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, historically within Russia’s sphere of influence, have also shown interest in the insights that Belarus offers as a military proxy of Russian expertise.
On October 28, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reported new intelligence that North Korean units have been identified in Russia’s Kursk region. This, according to intelligence from South Korea, points to additional, albeit indirect, support for Russian forces. Although no direct military support from China in Ukraine has been confirmed, the Sino-Belarusian relationship hints at an alignment of interests that could challenge Western military postures in the region. This network could eventually evolve into a coalition of states indirectly benefiting from Russian military experience.
These collaborations underscore a common interest among these nations to remain relatively self-sufficient from Western military influence, potentially reshaping the dynamics of military power within the Eastern Hemisphere.
As China and Belarus deepen their military ties, Ukraine continues to face aggressive Russian operations. On October 27-28, Ukrainian forces launched a significant drone attack targeting Russian infrastructure. Ukrainian forces targeted Russian airfields, distilleries, and logistical hubs, aiming to degrade Russia’s military capabilities, which rely on air superiority and infrastructure resilience.
In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed growing domestic concerns regarding the labor force and the prolonged strain on the Russian economy. Despite labor shortages caused by conscription and war demands, Putin has assured the public that the nation’s low unemployment rate and strong economic reserves will sustain the country’s wartime economy. However, economists and analysts are increasingly skeptical of Russia’s ability to maintain a protracted conflict without serious economic repercussions, particularly as Western sanctions continue to bite and domestic resources become increasingly strained.
The conflict’s economic toll has also been felt across Europe, with NATO actively monitoring these developments. Russia’s sustained ability to conduct its military operations will largely depend on the stability of its economic and labor structures, which may face increased pressure as the war drags on.
In contrast to the alliance-building in the East, the West remains steadfast in its support for Ukraine. The United States, European Union, and NATO have provided significant military and financial aid, with recent agreements committing to long-term support for Ukraine’s defense efforts. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg emphasized that the alliance will continue to counterbalance any security threats posed by Eastern military partnerships.
Additionally, Western governments have implemented diplomatic initiatives to maintain unity among allies and to reinforce their stance on the conflict. This includes coordinated sanctions on Russian entities and expanded support to neighboring nations affected by the crisis. Such initiatives underscore the determination among Western allies to counterbalance Russia’s influence in the region, as well as the growing alliance between China and Belarus.
The influence of the conflict in Ukraine has not been limited to military developments alone; it has prompted significant political shifts within neighboring countries. In Moldova, the Constitutional Court is set to review the results of an October 20 referendum, which may redefine the nation’s democratic landscape in the context of regional tensions. The referendum has sparked intense debates regarding Moldova’s strategic alignment, particularly given its shared border with Ukraine and historical ties to Russia.
Similarly, Georgia is currently experiencing its own domestic turmoil following the parliamentary elections of 2024. Contentious political debates have erupted over election integrity and the legitimacy of pro-Russian factions, with thousands of citizens rallying for transparency and democratic reforms. Analysts note that both Moldova and Georgia’s situations reflect the broader pressures exerted by Russia’s regional influence and the need for Eastern European countries to either align with or oppose Moscow’s interests.
