Beijing issued a stern warning to Lithuania on Monday (Dec 2), threatening “countermeasures” following the expulsion of three Chinese embassy staff. This diplomatic rift comes amid rising tensions over Lithuania’s growing ties with Taiwan and the alleged involvement of a Chinese ship in severing undersea cables in the Baltic Sea.
In a strongly worded statement, a spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry condemned Lithuania’s actions, calling them “wanton and provocative.” The statement urged Lithuania to “immediately stop undermining China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and stop creating difficulty for bilateral relations.”
On Friday, Lithuania’s foreign ministry declared three Chinese diplomatic staff members as “undesirable” and ordered their expulsion. While the ministry did not disclose specific details, it cited “activities which violate the Vienna Convention and the legislation of the Republic of Lithuania” as the basis for its decision.
The expulsions mark a significant escalation in already fraught Sino-Lithuanian relations. China’s reaction was swift and fierce, signaling that the move could have wider repercussions.
Adding to the tension is an ongoing investigation into two severed telecommunications cables in Swedish territorial waters, one of which connected Lithuania to the Swedish island of Gotland.
Reports suggest the Chinese ship Yi Peng 3 was in the vicinity of the cables when they were damaged last month. Maritime tracking data reportedly places the vessel over the cables at the time of the incident.
While Beijing has denied any involvement, the incident has raised alarms across the Baltic region, prompting Lithuania, Sweden, and Finland to launch a joint investigation with the support of Eurojust, the European Union’s criminal justice cooperation agency.
China has expressed willingness to cooperate with the investigation but maintains its innocence.
The alleged sabotage of the cables has added a new layer to the geopolitical standoff between China and Lithuania, which began escalating in 2021. That year, Lithuania allowed Taiwan to open a de facto embassy under the island’s name—a move Beijing viewed as a violation of its “one-China principle.”
The principle asserts that Taiwan is part of China’s sovereign territory, and Beijing has pressured other countries to cut ties with Taiwan or limit recognition of its government.
Since then, China has downgraded diplomatic ties with Lithuania, imposed economic sanctions, and ramped up its rhetoric. Monday’s statement from Beijing reiterated its stance, accusing Vilnius of “acting in serious violation” of the one-China principle and causing “severe difficulty” for bilateral relations.
Lithuania, a small Baltic nation with a population of less than three million, has emerged as a vocal critic of Beijing’s policies, particularly on human rights and Taiwan. Its stance has earned praise from Taiwan and Western allies but has come at a cost.
China’s economic retaliation has targeted Lithuanian businesses, including blocking imports and pressuring multinational corporations to sever ties with Lithuanian suppliers. Despite these measures, Lithuania has remained steadfast, aligning itself more closely with EU allies and NATO.
The undersea cable incident could further galvanize regional solidarity. In addition to Lithuania’s joint investigative efforts with Sweden and Finland, the EU has voiced concern over the growing security threats in the Baltic region.
The standoff underscores a broader geopolitical trend: smaller nations challenging China’s assertive foreign policy, often with the backing of Western democracies.
- Taiwan’s Role: Taiwan has expressed gratitude to Lithuania for its support, and the two have expanded economic and cultural ties in defiance of Beijing.
- Security Concerns: The Baltic Sea cable damage raises questions about critical infrastructure vulnerabilities in Europe, particularly in regions bordering Russia and China.
- Economic Pressure: Lithuania’s ability to withstand Chinese economic coercion could serve as a case study for other nations facing similar challenges.
- China’s threat of countermeasures against Lithuania remains vague, but historical precedent suggests several possible actions:
- Economic Retaliation: Beijing could intensify trade restrictions or use its influence to pressure international businesses.
- Diplomatic Isolation: Further downgrading diplomatic ties or using international forums to criticize Lithuania.
- Cyber or Covert Actions: Heightened surveillance or interference in Lithuania’s digital and physical infrastructure cannot be ruled out, especially given the undersea cable incident.
The EU now faces the challenge of balancing its collective stance on China while supporting individual member states like Lithuania. Brussels has taken steps to counter Beijing’s economic coercion, including proposing an anti-coercion instrument to protect member states from punitive measures.
However, divisions remain within the bloc. Larger economies like Germany and France have sought a more moderate approach toward China, prioritizing economic ties, while Eastern European nations, including Lithuania, have adopted a harder line.
