US President Donald Trump returns to the White House for a second term, his strategy toward Europe has taken a more aggressive and divisive turn. Unlike his first term, when he launched a direct trade war against the European Union (EU), Trump is now leveraging geopolitical instability to expose the bloc’s internal fractures, particularly regarding Ukraine. By pulling U.S. support from Kyiv and fostering relationships with nationalist leaders, Trump has created a crisis that threatens the EU’s cohesion and relevance on the world stage.
From the outset of his second term, Trump has made clear that the EU will not be treated as a unified entity. His administration has bypassed Brussels and sought direct engagement with individual European capitals, favoring those with nationalist or right-wing governments. Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán were among the few EU leaders invited to Trump’s presidential inauguration—symbolizing the U.S. administration’s preference for bilateral relations over institutional diplomacy.
The exclusion of top EU officials from key meetings signals a shift from Trump’s first presidency. Back then, despite his disdain for the EU, he still engaged with its leaders. Now, Brussels finds itself sidelined as Trump instead courts individual member states, sowing divisions within the bloc.
“Trump is playing divide-and-rule at a level we haven’t seen before,” said Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at the Eurasia Group. “Unlike the first term, when the EU could unite against tariffs and trade wars, Trump is now exploiting security weaknesses to drive a wedge between EU members.”
Ukraine Dilemma
The most immediate crisis triggered by Trump’s policies is in Ukraine. His decision to withdraw U.S. military support has left the EU scrambling to fill the gap. European leaders such as French President Emmanuel Macron and newly elected U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer have stepped up to coordinate support for Ukraine—often bypassing Brussels.
The European Council, the body where all 27 EU leaders meet to make foreign policy decisions, is proving too slow and divided to respond effectively. Hungary, under Orbán’s leadership, has repeatedly blocked further aid for Ukraine, forcing other European leaders to seek alternative diplomatic channels.
“Europe’s center of gravity is shifting back to the national capitals,” Rahman noted. “The EU institutions remain important, but they are no longer the primary driver of European foreign policy.”
At an emergency summit in Brussels this week, expectations for a unified response were low. Instead, key European leaders such as Macron and Starmer held separate meetings with Turkey and Canada, deliberately excluding Hungary and other pro-Russian EU members.
Trump’s Alignment with Russia
Trump’s antagonism toward the EU aligns with Russia’s long-standing goal of weakening the bloc. His administration has openly questioned NATO’s role, leaving European nations unsure whether they can rely on U.S. military support. This uncertainty benefits Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has long sought to fracture Western unity.
European officials fear that Trump’s actions—whether intentional or not—are accelerating Moscow’s objectives. “What [U.S. Vice President JD] Vance did in Munich … shows a desire to destroy the progressive European Union and replace it with a weaker, nationalist-driven coalition,” said Tanguy Struye de Swielande, an expert on EU-U.S. relations.
For Putin, a fractured EU means less coordinated sanctions, weaker military aid for Ukraine, and a reduced capacity to counter Russian aggression. With Trump in power, the Kremlin sees an opportunity to exploit European divisions further.
Trump’s Economic Offensive Against the EU
Beyond geopolitics, Trump has reignited economic hostilities with Europe. During his first term, he imposed tariffs on European steel and aluminum, prompting a retaliatory response from Brussels. Now, he is escalating tensions with a broader trade war.
EU trade chief Maroš Šefčovič traveled to Washington earlier this year in an attempt to negotiate a resolution, offering concessions such as increased purchases of American liquefied natural gas. However, Trump’s administration dismissed these proposals and announced a 25% tariff on all EU imports—a move that could significantly disrupt transatlantic trade.
“Šefčovič came very prepared with clear proposals, but the U.S. had no interest in serious negotiations,” said a senior EU diplomat. “This time, Trump isn’t just playing hardball—he’s actively trying to break the EU’s economic cohesion.”
In response, the European Commission is preparing countermeasures, including tariffs on American bourbon, jeans, and motorcycles—similar to the retaliatory actions taken during Trump’s first presidency. However, some EU members, particularly those with closer ties to Washington, are hesitant to escalate tensions.
U.S. Interference in European Politics
Trump’s influence isn’t limited to trade and security; his administration is also emboldening Europe’s far-right movements. By openly supporting nationalist leaders and criticizing the EU’s policies on climate change, immigration, and technology regulation, Trump is fueling populist sentiment across the continent.
One clear example is his administration’s response to EU digital regulations. European lawmakers recently traveled to Washington to discuss the Digital Markets Act and the Digital Services Act, which impose stricter rules on Big Tech companies. But rather than engage in dialogue, Republican lawmakers, led by Jim Jordan, sent a letter to EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, accusing the EU of enforcing “censorship regimes.”
“There is a clear ideological agenda at play,” said Struye de Swielande. “Trump and his allies see an opportunity to reshape Europe in their image—favoring nationalist, conservative governments that align with U.S. interests.”
This support for nationalist movements could have a major impact on upcoming European elections. If far-right parties gain ground, it could further weaken the EU’s ability to act as a unified bloc, making it even easier for Trump to exert influence over individual nations.
As Trump continues his offensive against the EU, Brussels is struggling to maintain its relevance. Von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa have so far failed to secure a direct meeting with Trump. Instead, they have had to settle for discussions with Vice President Vance and other lower-level officials.
Even high-profile EU figures are being sidelined. Kaja Kallas, the EU’s top diplomat and a vocal critic of Russia, was scheduled to meet with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio last month. However, upon arriving in Washington, she was informed that Rubio had “scheduling issues” and would not be available.
“This is the brutal reality of the new transatlantic relationship,” said Rahman. “The EU can no longer expect the same level of engagement from Washington.”
Still, Brussels retains some leverage. The European Commission controls trade policy, meaning it has the power to impose economic retaliations. It also oversees antitrust regulations, which could be used to target American tech giants operating in Europe.
“There are areas where the EU still holds significant power,” said an EU official. “Trump might try to ignore Brussels, but when it comes to trade and economic policy, he will have to deal with us.”
As Trump’s second term unfolds, the stakes for Europe have never been higher. The EU faces challenges on multiple fronts—an escalating trade war, internal divisions over Ukraine, and growing far-right influence fueled by Washington.
Yet, despite Trump’s efforts to weaken the bloc, his actions may ultimately have the opposite effect. “Each crisis makes the EU stronger,” said a European diplomat. “Trump and Putin may see us as enemies, but that only proves that we still matter.”
The question now is whether Brussels can rally its members to stand firm against the storm or whether Trump’s strategy of divide and rule will succeed in reshaping Europe’s future.
