Russia has altered its drone strike tactics in Ukraine, signaling a more calculated and sustained aerial campaign that threatens to overwhelm Kyiv’s air defenses and expose vulnerabilities in the country’s reliance on Western-supplied missile interceptors.
Ukrainian officials and military analysts report a significant change in the operational use of the Shahed-136 drone—a weapon that has become a symbol of Russia’s cost-effective warfare. In recent weeks, the drones are being launched in larger formations, flying at higher altitudes, and executing steep dive-bombing maneuvers that make them harder to intercept.
The shift appears aimed at bypassing Ukraine’s layered air defense systems, which have been stretched thin after more than two years of constant bombardment.
“The enemy is adapting,” said Colonel Serhiy Holubtsov, a Ukrainian air defense officer. “They are using mass tactics to overload our systems, and their drones are flying higher, making our traditional mobile teams less effective.”
According to Ukrainian military sources, Shahed-136 drones are now flying at altitudes of 2,000 to 2,500 meters—well above the effective range of mobile air defense units using anti-aircraft guns or shoulder-launched missiles. Once over urban areas, the drones enter steep dives toward targets, accelerating to speeds of up to 90 meters per second. This not only reduces their visibility but gives Ukrainian defenses a much smaller reaction window.
These new tactics are being carried out in formations of up to 20 drones, often timed with missile strikes to saturate defenses. The approach is not entirely new, but the scale and frequency of such attacks have increased.
On the night of March 30, for instance, Russia launched 37 Shahed drones at multiple Ukrainian cities, including Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Vinnytsia. While Ukrainian air defenses shot down most of them, a handful slipped through and damaged critical infrastructure, including a power substation and residential buildings.
“The enemy sends wave after wave. You might intercept the first few, but you can’t catch them all,” said one Ukrainian radar operator stationed near Kharkiv.
This war of attrition benefits Russia in multiple ways. Each Shahed drone costs roughly $20,000 to $50,000. In contrast, the missiles used to intercept them—like the IRIS-T or Patriot—can cost hundreds of thousands to several million dollars each. Ukraine faces a mounting dilemma: destroy cheap drones with expensive weapons or risk letting them hit key infrastructure.
Perhaps even more concerning to Ukrainian defense planners is the apparent emergence of a reconnaissance variant of the Shahed drone. These versions are reportedly equipped with optical navigation and live-feed cameras, capable of capturing footage of the strikes in real time.
“Some drones are believed to be flying with no warheads, just cameras,” said an intelligence officer with Ukraine’s General Staff. “They film the impact, track damage, and possibly even guide follow-up strikes or attack emergency responders.”
This capability—if confirmed—represents a new layer in Russia’s strike planning: dynamic battlefield assessment and target refinement. It also raises fears that first responders and emergency personnel could be targeted in so-called “double-tap” strikes, a tactic designed to increase chaos and casualties.
Originally supplied by Iran, the Shahed drones are now believed to be manufactured inside Russia under license or through reverse-engineering. Recent reports suggest Moscow has ramped up domestic drone production at a facility in Tatarstan, minimizing the effects of sanctions and securing a steady flow of units for ongoing attacks.
Analysts at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) say this self-sufficiency is what allows Russia to deploy the drones en masse without fear of quickly depleting its inventory.
“Russia is refining drone tactics the same way it refined artillery use in the early stages of the war,” said Justin Bronk, a defense analyst. “What we’re seeing now is a playbook forming—mass drone usage combined with missile barrages and electronic warfare.”
These tactics aim to probe, stretch, and ultimately break down Ukraine’s multi-tiered air defense umbrella, especially as Western partners are slow to replenish missile stockpiles.
Western-supplied air defense systems have proven invaluable, especially the U.S. Patriot and German IRIS-T platforms. However, they are few in number, and their high cost limits broad deployment. Furthermore, they are primarily designed to intercept ballistic or cruise missiles, not swarms of loitering munitions.
Ukraine’s stopgap has been the deployment of mobile fire teams—soldiers armed with machine guns or MANPADS (man-portable air-defense systems). These teams have been effective against low-flying drones but struggle against high-altitude attacks like those now employed by Russia.
The elevated flight paths of recent drone formations remove them from the engagement envelopes of these units, pushing Ukraine to use the more expensive interceptors just to maintain airspace integrity.
“We’re being forced into a position where every intercepted drone is a strategic victory but also a logistical setback,” said a senior Ukrainian official. “We can’t keep trading million-dollar missiles for lawnmowers with wings.”
As the drone war escalates, Kyiv is pushing harder than ever for more air defense systems and, crucially, more ammunition. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has publicly urged NATO partners to increase shipments of interceptor missiles and explore new counter-drone technologies.
The United States has pledged additional Patriot missiles, but deliveries are delayed by bureaucratic and manufacturing bottlenecks. Germany, meanwhile, recently announced it would send another IRIS-T battery by summer, though Ukraine says it needs “dozens more” to ensure national coverage.
“It’s a math problem now,” said Yuriy Ihnat, spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force. “We shoot one down, they launch two more. If we don’t receive large-scale replenishments, our skies will get darker.”
Russia’s drone campaign serves multiple purposes: sowing fear, exhausting Ukraine’s air defenses, and targeting power infrastructure to complicate military logistics and civilian morale. But beyond the battlefield, it also sends a message to Western capitals: your aid is being tested and measured in real time.
Ukrainian officials warn that their country is becoming a “testing ground” for Russian weapons—a proving lab for drone warfare that could later be exported or used elsewhere, from Syria to the Baltics.
“They are learning with every strike,” said Zelenskyy in a recent address. “If we do not stop them here, this new generation of warfare will reach others.” As Russia continues to refine its drone strategy, Ukraine stands at a critical juncture. Its defense relies not just on bravery and technical skill, but also on the sustained support of Western allies.
