When Beijing issued a travel warning urging Chinese citizens to avoid Japan following a diplomatic flare-up over Taiwan, many in Tokyo’s tourism and retail sectors feared the worst. After all, Chinese tourists are the backbone of Japan’s hospitality economy, known for their high spending on luxury goods, dining, and travel packages.
But on the ground in Tokyo, businesses say the immediate impact has been manageable — even surprisingly mild.
Shiina Ito, who manages a jewellery store in Tokyo’s historic Asakusa district, said Chinese visitors normally make up about half of her clientele. Yet even with a noticeable drop in Chinese foot traffic, she remains unfazed.
“Since there are fewer Chinese customers, it’s become a bit easier for Japanese shoppers to visit, so our sales haven’t really dropped,” Ito told AFP. Her shop sits in one of the city’s most iconic tourist locations, where crowds thread through narrow, shop-lined streets beneath the shadow of the famous Senso-ji Temple.
The downturn began after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested on Nov 7 that Tokyo might intervene militarily if Taiwan were attacked — a statement that infuriated Beijing, which regards the island as part of China’s territory.
In response, China summoned Japan’s ambassador and warned its citizens against travelling to the archipelago. Chinese state media even reported the postponement of at least two Japanese movies awaiting release in China.
The travel advisory further rattled Tokyo’s already jittery markets, sending tourism and retail stocks tumbling. Most have yet to rebound, underlining concerns that political tensions could spill more deeply into economic spheres.
Japan is heavily reliant on Chinese tourism. From January to September 2025, nearly 7.5 million Chinese visitors arrived — roughly a quarter of all foreign arrivals. Their spending power is equally significant: in the third quarter alone, Chinese visitors spent the equivalent of US$3.7 billion, buoyed by the weak yen. They also spent 22 percent more per person than other tourists last year.
Yet even businesses that depend on Chinese customers say they have not yet seen dramatic short-term losses.
In Tokyo’s upscale Ginza district, home to luxury boutiques and viral food destinations, udon restaurant manager Yuki Yamamoto said that while half of his diners on a typical day are from China, he has not noticed any sharp decline.
“I don’t think there’s been any sudden, dramatic change,” Yamamoto said. “Of course, if customers decrease, that’s disappointing for the shop. But Japanese customers still come regularly, so we’re not extremely concerned.”
His restaurant, known for its photogenic dishes and long queues, continues to draw domestic and international diners from other markets.
Still, not every business has escaped unscathed. Hotels outside central Tokyo, particularly those that rely heavily on Chinese tour groups, are experiencing a wave of cancellations.
“Cancellations from travel agencies in China are coming one after another,” said Keiko Takeuchi, who runs the Gamagori Hotel in central Japan. “About 50 to 60 percent of our customers are Chinese nationals. I hope the situation calms down quickly, but it seems it will take time.”
Her experience reflects the broader pattern noted by travel agencies in China.
Wu Weiguo, who manages a Shanghai-based travel company, said group travel has been hit hardest. “Ninety percent of my clients are requesting refunds,” he said. But he also pointed out that organised tours only made up about 12 percent of Chinese visitors last year, down sharply from 43 percent in 2015 — suggesting that individual travellers may simply postpone, rather than cancel, their plans.
Japan’s Transport Minister Yasushi Kaneko urged calm, noting that arrivals from Southeast Asia, Europe and the United States continue to grow. He added that the situation was not “something to get all worked up about.”
Meanwhile, Japan’s hawkish Minister of Economic Security, Kimi Onoda, seized the moment to highlight what she sees as a structural vulnerability: excessive reliance on Chinese tourism and trade.
She warned that Japan’s dependence on a country “that resorts to economic coercion whenever it is displeased” poses risks not only to supply chains but also to the tourism sector.
Ironically, the diplomatic chill comes at a time when Japan is grappling with an entirely different problem: overtourism. A record 36.8 million visitors arrived in 2024, straining transport infrastructure, disrupting daily life, and prompting new crowd-management measures in major attractions like Kyoto and Mount Fuji.
For some Tokyo businesses, therefore, a slight temporary dip in tourists — even from China — may not be disastrous. Some shop owners say it has even eased congestion and made their stores more comfortable for local shoppers.
Despite the tensions, few believe Chinese demand for travel to Japan will disappear. The appeal — clean cities, high-quality service, and affordable luxury due to the weak yen — remains strong.
“Chinese people will continue to want to visit Japan,” said Shanghai travel agent Wu. “They believe the service is high-quality and shopping is reasonably priced.”
Even with political tempests brewing in the background, the long-standing cultural and economic links between Chinese tourists and Japan’s hospitality industry appear resilient. For now, Tokyo’s businesses are staying calm — cautious but confident that the storm will pass.
