If there is one defining image of 2025, it is a world gripped by overlapping wars and the roar of combat aircraft over contested skies. The year is already being described by analysts as one of the most conflict-heavy periods since the Second World War, with active or near-active hostilities spanning Europe, Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Against this backdrop of rising violence, the global fighter jet industry experienced a dramatic reshuffling of fortunes, producing clear winners, unexpected comebacks, and uncomfortable setbacks for long-dominant players.
The wars themselves were diverse in geography and intensity. In Europe, the Russia–Ukraine war ground toward its fifth year, with no clear end in sight. Israel expanded its military footprint, striking targets not only in Lebanon and Syria but, for the first time, in Qatar and Iran. The United States also crossed a historic threshold, launching direct strikes against Iran, signaling a dangerous widening of Middle Eastern conflict dynamics.
South Asia witnessed its most intense aerial confrontation since 1971, as India and Pakistan clashed in a high-tempo air battle during a brief but violent crisis in May. Southeast Asia was not spared either: Cambodia and Thailand engaged in two sharp border clashes, while Pakistan and Afghanistan exchanged fire repeatedly, with Islamabad carrying out multiple air strikes inside Afghan territory.
Africa remained a major epicenter of instability. Civil wars and insurgencies raged simultaneously in Sudan, Libya, Somalia, Nigeria, and Mali, stretching international peacekeeping efforts thin. As the year drew to a close, the United States conducted air strikes on alleged drug trafficking vessels linked to Venezuela and targeted ISIS-linked groups in Nigeria. In another startling twist, Saudi Arabia launched air strikes in Yemen that reportedly struck positions linked to its own strategic partner, the United Arab Emirates.
Unsurprisingly, this surge in global conflict drove a sharp rise in defense spending. Air power, particularly advanced fighter jets, became a focal point of military modernization. Governments accelerated procurement plans, revived dormant programs, and poured billions into next-generation combat aircraft. Yet the benefits of this spending boom were unevenly distributed across the aerospace industry.
The standout winner of 2025 was Boeing. After decades of painful defeats in high-profile U.S. defense competitions, the company staged a remarkable comeback. In March, President Donald Trump announced Boeing as the winner of the U.S. Air Force’s sixth-generation fighter program, the F-47, under the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) initiative. Boeing beat Lockheed Martin head-to-head, securing a development contract worth around US$20 billion, with lifetime production value potentially reaching hundreds of billions of dollars. The U.S. Air Force is expected to procure at least 185 F-47 fighters.
This victory was transformative. Boeing had previously lost the Advanced Tactical Fighter program in the 1990s, which produced the F-22 Raptor, and the Joint Strike Fighter competition in the early 2000s, where Lockheed’s X-35 defeated Boeing’s X-32, leading to the F-35. In 2015, Boeing also lost the Long Range Strike Bomber program to Northrop Grumman’s B-21 Raider. These setbacks raised serious doubts about Boeing’s future as a combat aircraft prime contractor. The F-47 win decisively reversed that narrative.
Boeing’s momentum continued later in the year when the Pentagon awarded it an $8.6 billion contract for 25 F-15IA fighters—an advanced derivative of the F-15EX—for Israel, with an option for 25 more. Together, these deals reestablished Boeing as a central player in global combat aviation.
Another surprise success story of 2025 was Sweden’s Saab. After nearly a decade of struggling to sell its Gripen fighter beyond Brazil, Saab secured a string of breakthroughs. Thailand approved the purchase of four Gripen E/F jets for about US$600 million, followed by Colombia’s order for 17 aircraft valued at roughly US$3.6 billion. Ukraine and Sweden also signed a letter of intent covering up to 150 Gripen E fighters, with discussions underway on possible joint production in Ukraine.
Crucially, 2025 marked the first combat use of the Gripen. The Royal Thai Air Force deployed Gripens in precision strikes against Cambodian artillery positions, giving the aircraft its long-awaited combat credentials. Saab also received a SEK 2.6 billion (US$280 million) contract from Sweden’s Defence Materiel Administration to continue studies on future fighter systems, and France ordered two GlobalEye airborne early warning aircraft. After years in the shadows, Saab ended 2025 firmly back in focus.
By contrast, Lockheed Martin endured one of its most challenging years in the fighter jet domain. Losing the F-47 contract to Boeing ended its long dominance of U.S. stealth fighter programs. Persistent rumors about a U.S.-controlled “kill switch” in the F-35—despite repeated Pentagon denials—unsettled foreign customers. Switzerland cut its F-35A order, Canada reopened its procurement debate, and Portugal sent mixed signals. A Pentagon watchdog report further damaged confidence by highlighting low F-35 availability rates, hovering around 50 percent.
Dassault Aviation’s year was similarly mixed. The company secured an order for 26 Rafale M jets from India but suffered the first confirmed combat loss of a Rafale during India’s brief conflict with Pakistan. Although Pakistan’s claims of shooting down multiple Rafales were unproven, the incident triggered a coordinated disinformation campaign, particularly from Chinese sources promoting the J-10CE. Still, Dassault gained a boost when Ukraine signed a letter of intent for up to 100 Rafales over the next decade, even as the Franco-German FCAS program remained stalled by industrial disputes.
In sum, 2025 was both a year of war and a turning point for military aviation. Boeing reclaimed lost ground, Saab reemerged as a credible competitor, while Lockheed Martin and Dassault navigated a far more difficult landscape. As conflicts persist and air power remains central to modern warfare, the real consequences of 2025’s upheavals will shape the global fighter jet market for decades to come.
